The current odds of Fernando Mendoza being the No. 1 overall draft pick next month are -10000 at BetMGM. That means one would have to bet $100 to make $1 and cash in on this sure thing. It’s amazing when you consider what the odds would have been four years ago when Cal was the only FBS school to offer the quarterback a scholarship out of high school.
Mendoza is a great story — just not the story of this draft. That would be the second-best player, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love. Teams like the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs gave up on Love still being there at Nos. 8 and 9 and signed running backs, and the question is who will jump the Tennessee Titans at No. 4.
The New York Giants or the Los Angeles Rams? Nah, someone crazier.
Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones needs defensive players and has already dealt away too many draft picks but fell in love with a player who can break off long runs, as well as do everything else, and take pressure off Dak Prescott, as well as that defense. The trade price tag of two first-round picks — Nos. 12 and 20 — to get to No. 3 is steep, but Jones is not one for sticker shock.
We also heard too many times at the NFL combine that a team promised Ty Simpson a first-round pick if he walked away from all that NIL money, so here’s how the rest of the first round might play out.
1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
The Raiders have a logical plan, with a new play-calling coach and shiny new big-money center, and when’s the last time you could say that? Some may not like the idea of the Raiders sitting Mendoza for a while, but that’s what they want to do.
2. New York Jets: Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State
With elite speed and bend, Reese is the favorite (-250) to go off the board next, and there is no reason for the Jets to overthink this one.
3. Dallas Cowboys (trade): Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
No one is talking about how undervalued the running back position is when a polished prospect like Love pops up. Looking at those odds again, Love is +145 to go third in the draft — as opposed to -145 at No. 4 — and a 20-1 shot to be drafted by the Cowboys, per BetMGM.
4. Tennessee Titans: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech
Robert Saleh gets an explosive pass rusher to kick-start his new defense, but he was definitely looking at Sonny Styles and having some Fred Warner flashbacks.
5. New York Giants: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
Styles’ stock is through the roof after that combine performance, and John Harbaugh gets his play-making linebacker to put behind a robust defensive line.
6. Cleveland Browns: Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
Some teams are higher on other tackles, but Freeling has ideal measurables, quickness and a higher ceiling at left tackle.
7. Washington Commanders: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
Mauigoa is a plug-in mauler at right tackle who lives to bury linebackers.
8. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami
Sometimes teams overthink and get bogged down in a player’s length or speed. Bain is not ideal in that respect, but watch the game film, and he is a dominant, disruptive player who can move inside as well.
9. Kansas City Chiefs: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
Fano also doesn’t have the longest arms, but he can move defensive players around. And he can start at right tackle before possibly being moved to guard or even center.
10. Los Angeles Rams (trade): Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
The Rams are all-in, and while they couldn’t get the Eagles to trade them A.J. Brown, this move might even be better. They give up the No. 13 pick and a third-rounder to nab the best receiver in the draft.
11. Miami Dolphins: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
The Dolphins are starting from scratch, and what better way for a defensive coach to add a physical corner who can also run with top receivers?
12. Arizona Cardinals (from DAL): Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
The Cardinals get a 352-pound building block who once caught a screen pass in college. He is the future at tackle but can also play guard in a pinch.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (from LAR): Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Downs can make plays against the pass and run, and matches up well with all of the game’s big receivers who are playing tight end.
14. Baltimore Ravens: Makai Lemon, WR, USC
A hard-nosed receiver who will fit in well in Baltimore, but don’t let the toughness fool you: He wins off the line of scrimmage and piles up yards after the catch.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
Tyson might be higher on the list of receivers if not for some durability issues. He is a big-play receiver for a team in need of one after Mike Evans turned down more money and left for the 49ers.
While durability concerns surround Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson, he still ranks among the top wide receivers in this draft. (Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)
16. New York Jets (from IND): Omar Cooper, WR, Indiana
It’s a run on receivers. Mendoza compared his college target to Deebo Samuel, and Cooper does add some after-the-catch power, along with good route-running and strong hands.
17. Detroit Lions: Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
If the Lions say they drafted the best player available, they are lying. A 54-game starter in college with a wrestling background, Miller pins down the team’s biggest need after a lot of defections.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Miami
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores gets a physical player who can set the edge as well as get to the quarterback (12.5 sacks last season).
19. Carolina Panthers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
Sadiq is this year’s exciting tight end prospect, as he is explosive in the passing game and doesn’t mind getting dirty in the running game.
20. Arizona Cardinals (from DAL): Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
Sometimes, the best player available missed last season with an ACL tear. McCoy is a complete player who had a great 2024 season, and the Cardinals’ patience will be rewarded.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
Before he showed off his great speed at the combine, Thieneman was already coveted by teams as he can line up at different spots, can cover and tackle.
.@DillonThieneman brought his athletic ability and versatility to Indy at the NFL Combine 🦆 @OregonFootball pic.twitter.com/fv0VDLDErz
— NFL (@NFL) March 3, 2026
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Vega Ioane, G, Penn State
His teammates and coaches will be in for a treat, as not only can Ioane push defensive tackles around, but he is also an accomplished baker.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
The youngster with quick feet can still fill out his frame, but the Eagles have time, as they don’t really need him to step in at tackle for another year.
24. Cleveland Browns (from JAX): Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
Who else but the team with Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel on the roster and a new coach would make a first-round promise to a QB who started all of 15 games in college? That’s our guess anyway.
25. Chicago Bears: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
The Bears have a lot of offensive players they are counting on to get better, so why not add a tall safety who can make plays on the ball and get the offense more chances?
26. Buffalo Bills: Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
Hood plays fast and addresses one of the Bills’ biggest needs. Unless they want to roll the dice at receiver and take big Denzel Boston instead.
27. San Francisco 49ers: Cashius Howell, Edge, Texas A&M
The 49ers have had a productive offseason and adding a pass rusher is the last piece. They care more about Howell’s elite 10-yard split (1.58 seconds) than his short arms.
28. Houston Texans: Chase Bisontis, G, Texas A&M
The top of the board for offensive linemen was cleaned out, but scouts like Bisontis’ toughness and power in the run game.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (from LAR): Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson
Terrell is a little undersized at 5-foot-11, 186 pounds, but he plays just like Trent McDuffie.
30. Miami Dolphins (from DEN): Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State
When building up a defense, stout run defenders like McDonald make a lot of sense, even if the pass-rush push needs some work.
31. New England Patriots: Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn
It doesn’t seem smart that teams let an athletic, versatile player like Faulk fall to the defending AFC champions.
32. Seattle Seahawks: KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
It doesn’t seem smart that teams let a dynamic catch-to-run player like Concepcion fall to the defending Super Bowl champions.
