It’s an annual tradition: My column explaining why I think your favorite team isn’t going to win as many games as you think they are.
These predictions are for fun, not a demonstration of my deep-seated loathing for your favorite team, and not the product of a sophisticated machine-learning algorithm to produce impeccable forecasts. I make it all up, and then I talk about it. (I do, however, rely on FanGraphs’ projections as a starting point for several things here, especially some individual player projections, and this piece would be far harder without them.)
I’ve done this for 15+ years now, and the reactions are always the same — people look for what I said about their favorite teams and then yell at me about it. I got two division winners right last year, counting the Dodgers (who shouldn’t even count as getting it ‘right’), and a team I picked to finish last ended up two outs away from a championship. I did get the NL Cy Young Award winner right, at least, but that’s not a whole lot to write home about.
So, here are my projections for the 2026 season, including playoff results. I will have my award projections in a separate story tomorrow. Disagree all you like, as long as you enjoy.
American League East: The Yankees lead baseball’s most competitive division
The Yankees led the American League in runs scored by a wide margin last year, and I expect them to lead the league again, although they are so dependent on Aaron Judge that even a modest injury to the soon-to-be 34-year-old MVP could have a dramatic impact on their fortunes. They could really use an Anthony Volpe breakout, or a return to 2024 form from Austin Wells, to backstop the offense. The rotation is in decent shape to start the year, but it’ll get better when Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole return later this spring from their elbow surgeries, at which point they will have one of the better rotations in the league.
Pete Alonso should help the Orioles bounce back from a disappointing 2025 season. (Todd Olszewski / Baltimore Orioles / Getty Images)
I’m pretty optimistic about Baltimore bouncing back from their 87-loss collapse last year, as they remade their rotation with a trade for Shane Baz and the signing of Chris Bassitt. They’ll also get Kyle Bradish back and should benefit from a full season from Trevor Rogers (who’ll regress from that crazy ERA last year, but should still be above average). I had Coby Mayo and Baz on my breakouts list, and I expect more production this year from Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser than they got in 2025.
The Red Sox were aggressive this winter, adding three starting pitchers, a first baseman and another infielder, although it looks like the Red Sox agreed that Johan Oviedo wasn’t actually an upgrade over Connolly Early, and I hate that they’re moving Marcelo Mayer out of position in deference to Trevor Story’s dead-cat bounce year. There’s still a lot of upside across this roster, though, enough that I think they can overcome some of this roster churn and end up with 90+ wins in many scenarios.
The Blue Jays won the pennant, and nearly won the World Series, but they’re not running back the same offense that was second in the AL last year in runs scored. While I like the addition of Dylan Cease, the Blue Jays still probably have a league-average pitching staff. Bo Bichette is gone, and 36-year-old George Springer just had his best year since the pandemic began, which I don’t expect him to repeat. They’d be the favorite in at least two divisions, but not this one.
The Rays are dancing on the edge of disaster with their roster, with several starters I do not trust to throw 120 innings this year, a left fielder who has less power than a dead AirTag battery, a second baseman who can’t seem to field, a center fielder who can’t throw or get on base and I dare you to name either catcher on their 40-man roster. They have three good hitters, and their pitchers throw a lot of strikes. That might sneak them into .500 range in another division, but I could see this going south early and leading the Rays to trade off a lot of pieces in July.
American League Central: The Tigers are flawed but still have enough to take the title
The Tigers are flawed, but they are the least flawed team in this division by a lot. They still have the best pitcher in the league, and they bolstered their rotation by adding Framber Valdez. They had league-average offense from six or seven lineup spots last year, and they have flipped shortstop from red to blue with Kevin McGonigle winning that job. Imagine how good they’d be if Riley Greene wasn’t swinging like he was playing in a Test Match.
The Royals won 82 games last year, which was a small step back from 2024, but they did go out and get some OBP help in the outfield, replacing Drew Waters, Nick Loftin and the rest of their left field clown car with Isaac Collins, who had a .368 OBP last year that would have led all Kansas City regulars. They’ll also get a boost from any playing time they give to Carter Jensen, who is their best catching option right now. I’m also hopeful they’ll get more from Cole Ragans this year and will see a breakout from Jac Caglianone.
Keeping rookie Chase DeLauter healthy could be the key for the Guardians this season. (Brandon Sloter / Getty Images)
The Guardians had the third-worst offense in the AL last year and added no one likely to help them; any offensive improvements this year will have to come from within, either from rookies like Chase DeLauter or George Valera, or from young veterans like Bo Naylor or Brayan Rocchio. They’ve succeeded with this low-scoring offense before thanks to their starting pitching, but after Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams it falls off, with homer-prone Slade Cecconi and reverse platoon-split lefty Joey Cantillo in the No. 3 and No. 4 spots, and they really don’t have much depth in that department after years of seeming to pull starters out of the ether. (I do like Parker Messick and am thrilled he won the fifth spot.)
Minnesota’s ownership isn’t trying to compete, so I’m going to stop pretending that they are, even after predicting them to make the playoffs at least twice in recent years when they fell short. Their offense is a lot of ‘remember some prospects’ along with the hope that we get a healthy Byron Buxton year. Maybe Mick Abel’s strong showing in spring training (three walks in 18 innings) means the former Philadelphia Phillies prospect and 2020 first-round pick is finally figuring out how to work with his premium stuff, but spring stats aren’t predictive, and I’m not going to buy it until he does it for a month or two when the games count.
The White Sox are still building, but this year’s Opening Day roster isn’t appreciably better than what they ran out there for most of 2025. I like that they took chances on an Erick Fedde bounce back, a return from NPB for Anthony Kay and on Munetaka Murakami’s power, but those players all carry a lot of downside risk, and their best prospects still in the minors aren’t ready to step in and contribute yet. I’m also expecting regression from Colson Montgomery given how bad his contact rate was after that opening series in Denver.
American League West: Mariners poised to lead the AL in wins
Seattle had one of the few 2025 rosters that you could see contending again in 2026 with only minor additions or changes. They picked up Brendan Donovan to fill the third-base void, and barring injury they might only have a hole in right field (assuming Victor Robles doesn’t reproduce his 2024 magic). They have a buffer between them and the next team in the division that could help them ride out any minor injuries, like if Bryce Miller has to miss a month or so with this oblique injury. They also still have significant prospect capital to swing a major deal in-season.
The Astros had a below-average offense last year and made the playoffs largely on the strength of their run prevention, but that took a hit with the departure of Valdez, leaving them with a rotation of Hunter Brown and (mumbles incoherently). Mike Burrows was an interesting pickup as he has some pitch characteristics the Astros like and with which they’ve had success before, and they signed Tatsuya Imai, who can show plus stuff but may not have the durability to be a big-league starter. The offense leans a little on older guys who could see big drop-offs in their production at any time. I don’t have any specific reason to call for a Cam Smith breakout this year, so he wasn’t in that article, but I do still think it happens eventually.
An already strong Jacob deGrom-led Rangers rotation got a boost with the addition of MacKenzie Gore. (Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
I give the Rangers credit for their ambition this winter, trading a whole mess of prospects for MacKenzie Gore — who I think will be better just from the change of scenery — and swapping Marcus Semien to pick up Brandon Nimmo, but they otherwise stood pat with a below-average offense that had only two regulars last year with wRC+ over 100.
The A’s will be more interesting than good, as the rotation is weak and they could see below-average offensive production from up to five lineup spots. Nick Kurtz is worth the price of admission, I’m hopeful for at least some uptick from Lawrence Butler, and maybe Gage Jump or Braden Nett gives them a half-season of good pitching, but I think they’re more holding steady than progressing right now.
I have the Angels with the worst record in the American League, and I might be too kind. In 2025, they gave up more runs per game than any team in the league, despite playing in a slight pitchers’ park, and scored the fourth-fewest runs per game in the AL. Their offseason additions included a guy who hasn’t pitched in two years, a hitter with a .283 OBP and a 34-year-old who slugged .365. I feel for Mike Trout, but also, he signed up for this.
National League East: Mets, Phillies battle at the top
The Mets might be the most improved team in baseball this year, at least on paper, or in my spreadsheet, and that’s where they play the games, right? They get a full season of Nolan McLean, and they added Freddy Peralta by trading two good prospects they didn’t need. They moved out the declining Jeff McNeil and added Bo Bichette, while also moving Bichette from a position he can’t play (short) to one he can (third). They have Brett Baty in line to continue his 2025 breakout and get regular playing time somewhere, maybe at DH, maybe backing up the peculiar addition of Jorge Polanco at first (or taking over if Polanco reverts to his 2024 form). The outfield is more volatile, with the enigma of Luis Robert Jr. added in center and now top prospect Carson Benge at least starting the year in right field, but there’s upside out there. It’s a significant makeover for a team that was already expensive and loaded with stars, but also addressed just about every major area of concern.
Andrew Painter will make his much awaited MLB debut as the Phillies’ fifth starter. (Nick Cammett / Diamond Images via Getty Images)
The Phillies made just one minor addition this winter, rolling the dice that Adolis García will somehow rediscover his 2023 approach again, and added rookies Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter to the Opening Day roster. Beyond those changes, they’re mostly running back the same crew that won 96 games last year and gave the Dodgers the only real scare they had in October. (And I still think they win that series if Rob Thomson understood that you have the option to not intentionally walk a batter with first base empty.) I’m not sure that’s such a great thing; six of their nine regulars are 33 or older, and they’re really counting on one of two things to happen in their rotation — either Zack Wheeler returns at 100 percent after surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome, or Painter fulfills his promise and becomes a viable major-league starter this year despite posting a 5.40 ERA in Triple A last year. I’ll give you Wheeler, and just a modest decline in their offense, but the arrow is starting to point down.
Atlanta’s fortunes seem to keep sliding, as they’ve now lost four definite or potential starting pitchers to injuries, with three of them undergoing surgery. I’m less concerned about the injuries to Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim, as they have Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin behind the plate, and Kim wasn’t very good in his return from shoulder surgery last year. They almost had to push Didier Fuentes back into their rotation, even though he didn’t look ready at all last year and finished 2025 on the IL with shoulder inflammation. I think they’re better than they were last year, when they went 76-86 despite being about as league-average a team as you can get, but their odds of contending have gone down quite a bit in the last six weeks.
The Marlins might prevent a few more runs this year with a full year of Eury Pérez and I hope a better showing from Sandy Alcantara, but this offense looks like it’s going to be well below-average, and I thought that even before Kyle Stowers and his .356 BABIP hit the injured list. Stowers was their only average regular in the lineup last year, and he’s one of several guys I would predict to be worse in 2026 than they were in 2025. Owen Caissie is cut from similar cloth, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit 25 homers in a platoon role this year. I also expect something more from Max Meyer, although I still like him better in relief.
The Nationals’ rebuild should pick up steam with the change in front office, although the new group led by Paul Toboni came into a great situation with a lot of talent already in the system. Outside of the Colorado Rockies, the Nationals are the most likely team to lose 110 games this year, as they allowed over 5.5 runs per game in 2025, then traded their best starter without replacing him.
National League Central: Cubs take the crown but surging Pirates a team to watch
The Cubs did enough to stay the favorites atop the NL Central, but that’s a low bar. They picked up Edward Cabrera in trade and signed Alex Bregman to boost their offense and push Matt Shaw to a utility role. Moisés Ballesteros seems in line for regular DH duty, and he’s a Rookie of the Year candidate because of his hit tool. They’re a comfortably above-average team, not likely to be the best in the league at anything but doing enough well in a weak division to win it. I am probably the biggest skeptic of team chemistry you’ll find — I’m not skeptical that exists, but I’m skeptical that it’s anywhere near as important as the common belief says, or that we can figure out what to pay to get it — but if any current player can make team chemistry a real thing, it might be Bregman.
I thought about having the Pirates win the NL Central, but decided that would be pushing my optimism too far, even though I think they’re going to have one of the best run-prevention units in the NL again this year after leading the league with a 3.60 ERA last year. They hit 117 homers last year, 31 fewer than any other National League team, so they traded for Brandon Lowe and signed Marcell Ozuna and Ryan O’Hearn. Those three players combined for 68 homers, or more than half of what all Pirates players hit combined. It’s not a good offense or even a league-average one, and no, adding Konnor Griffin won’t magically make it so, but they’re very much headed in the right direction and are a little bit of injury luck away from a playoff berth.
Can Kyle Harrison help the Brewers replace the departed Freddy Peralta? (Curt Hogg / USA Today Network vis Imagn Images)
The Brewers aren’t exactly a secret, but they were quietly one of the very best teams in baseball during the regular season last year, finishing with the most wins and second in the NL in runs scored and in runs allowed. That roster is now without starters Freddy Peralta and Jose Quintana, left fielder Isaac Collins and third baseman Caleb Durbin, a quartet that combined for 11.4 bWAR/8.8 fWAR last year, and they’re not set up to replace that value right away. They really need Joey Ortiz to be the 105 wRC+ guy he was in 2024, not the 67 wRC+ guy he was last year, and could use a healthy season from Garrett Mitchell now that there’s playing time available in the outfield. They could also benefit from a return to form for Brandon Woodruff. I’ve heard positive things on both Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan, acquired in the Durbin trade, because the Brewers are very good at what they do.
Cincinnati made the playoffs last year in a season where its ace, Hunter Greene, made just 19 starts — and that was the fewest of the team’s top five starters. Greene is out again, for at least half the year, and Nick Martinez is gone, and the odds of their other starters staying that healthy again are not very high. They had just three above-average hitters in their lineup last year, including the now-departed Austin Hays, and only Sal Stewart seems likely to add to that total. There’s a best-case scenario here where their starters stay healthy again, with Chase Burns and still-a-rookie Rhett Lowder becoming instant contributors, while Ke’Bryan Hayes gives them some positive value at third and Stewart becomes a Rookie of the Year contender, which probably lines them up for a shot at a playoff berth.
The Cardinals are truly rebuilding for the first time in ages, so they may not have a player over 28 in their lineup to start the year — and that’s a good thing, as they seem prepared to give some real runway to players who are in “hit or get off the pot” years, like Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker or even Victor Scott II to some extent. The pitching might get ugly, but, again, they’re giving chances to some younger guys, as well as trying to catch the rare sighting of a healthy Dustin May. The roster should look very different in August between trades, promotions and replacements of any of those hitters who don’t produce.
National League West: Dodgers dominate again, while Giants make progress
This division forecast is boring. I’m sorry. The Dodgers are obviously stacked, and they’re going to win a lot of games, and unless they suffer multiple significant injuries they’re going to win this division. They gilded the lily by signing Kyle Tucker. I wonder if top 100 prospect Alex Freeland will usurp World Series hero Miguel Rojas and end up with the majority of playing time at second base. I have nothing else interesting to say here.
Bryce Eldridge hit some bombs this spring, but it was the right decision for the Giants to start him in Triple A. (Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)
The Giants are making better decisions, such as sending Bryce Eldridge back to Triple A to continue developing as a hitter and fielder, and I believe that will continue to show up in small ways in the won/lost columns, but the current roster is a bit short of playoff status as is — shorter now with the loss of Hayden Birdsong for the year. Signing Luis Arraez to play second base is not one of those better decisions, as he hasn’t played there full-time in years and was quite poor defensively the last time we saw him there.
Arizona is stuck in the middle of the contention window, with a playoff-caliber offense and a pitching staff that might be playoff caliber if everyone is close to 100 percent. Bringing back Zac Gallen on a one-year deal feels like a coup, as he hit free agency off a down year, and they should get Corbin Burnes back at some point this season. Ryne Nelson seems to have made the leap to mid-rotation starter last year; if Brandon Pfaadt does the same this year, they could be wild-card contenders again.
The Padres are still trying to squeeze one more playoff run out of the existing roster, but A.J. Preller is running out of tricks, having traded their best prospect, Leo De Vries, for Mason Miller and JP Sears, with Sears failing to make the rotation this spring. They still have two of the best players in baseball in their outfield, and if their rotation stays reasonably healthy this year, they may be a sneaky-good run prevention outfit. They have no margin for error anywhere, however, and no longer have the prospects to pull off a big trade.
I have the Rockies finishing with the worst record in baseball again, but winning 11 more games, and I’m not sure how strongly I can even defend that other than to say that it’s very hard to be 119-loss bad two years in a row. They do have new people calling the shots in the front office, including Paul “The Revenant” DePodesta, and I expect some gains on the margins, but they’re going to need more than an Ezequiel Tovar breakout to get back to even 60 wins this year.
Playoff results
Wild Card
AdvancesLoses
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
Detroit Tigers
Boston Red Sox
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants
Division Series
AdvancesLoses
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
Chicago Cubs
Seattle Mariners
Baltimore Orioles
Detroit Tigers
New York Yankees
Championship Series
AdvancesLoses
Seattle Mariners
Detroit Tigers
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
World Series
WinsLoses
Seattle Mariners
New York Mets
