Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.
It’s time for regular updates to THE LIST, where I rank the best 100 starting pitchers in baseball every week.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
- If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week. (Spring edition: I have a few hypothetical rotation arms on The List who will be off the ranks if they leave camp out of the rotation).
- Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The HIPSTER players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
- I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just two labels per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Before we begin, here is the Top 100 List table without scrolling for those with PL Pro:
With this update of The List coming the day of Opening Night, I’ve taken all of our injured compatriots and thrown them into a separate table. Injuries are so strange (especially in spring training) and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if they are worthwhile to stash on your teams or not.
Injured Pitchers Who Will Be Considered When Healthy
It’s so hard to determine where injured arms should go, so I elected to merge the in-season List with the pre-draft rankings into one table that outlines the general area where they’d be ranked when at full strength.
I also get many questions about stashing minor league SPs and it’s not my best strength. I spend a ton of energy on SPs currently inside rotations that it’s difficult to stay on top of the budding minor league arms. That said, I have a very loose SP stash list, that is all about “If this guy were up right now, would he be an auto-add or a spec-add?”, with a sprinkle of favoring their ETA.
Treat it s a bonus table, not a proclamation of the future. It’s just a general idea and I’m sure I’m missing someone or may have one or two guys flipped in time. I have highlighted in green the guys I think who will be up before the ASB and make a solid impact:
Nick’s Loose Minor League SPs to Consider Stashing
Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend reading my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.
Let’s get to it.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I HAVE MOVED IL ARMS OFF THE LIST. It’s the reason why a lot of arms have gone up.
- I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
- These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.
Tier 1 – The True Aces
1. Garrett Crochet – Aces.
2. Paul Skenes – Gonna.
3. Tarik Skubal – Ace. I prefer Crochet due to highest Win potential. I prefer Skenes due to being the more complete pitcher. And yet, you can pick whoever you want. It’s so razor thin between the three of them, so take your pick.
Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove
4. Bryan Woo – He’s Wheeler 2.0.
5. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – There’s no more six-man rotation! I’m kinda shocked and now it’s really close between him and Woo. I stand by Bryan, and I have no problem with anyone who prefers Yamamoto.
6. Hunter Brown – He’s already sitting 97 mph again with a better four-seamer. Only worry is a six-man and lack of secondary support.
7. Cristopher Sánchez – Sinker gained movement last year + tighter slider. Love that.
8. Max Fried – His ratios are absurdly safe + great win potential. Lowered from last week due to lower velocity in spring. Highly likely it’s not a problem, but anything negative among norm with Sánchez and Brown makes me ask “Why risk it?”
9. Shohei Ohtani – But he’ll be limited! How much, really? He threw 81 pitches on Tuesday, striking out eleven batters in twelve outs. I THINK HE’S OKAY.
10. Jacob deGrom – He’s looking like deGrom and the only reason he was lower is the injury risk, which he overcame last season.
11. Logan Gilbert – Gilbert had a strain last season and I’m concerned it’ll appear again. The talent is incredible, though, in a phenomenal situation.
Tier 3 – Just Stay On The Field
12. Logan Webb – Here’s to hoping his WHIP improves, because the volume is otherwise incredible for ERA, Wins. and strikeouts
13. Freddy Peralta – Peralta has been oddly consistent despite his Professor Chaos nickname.
14. Chris Sale – I’m more worried about Sale being injury prone, despite the freak incidents. Not everyone fractures a rib diving for a ball.
15. Cole Ragans – Rotator Cuff strains are no joke. Y’all know I love him, but it’s a high risk pick.
16. George Kirby – Kirby’s slider is absurd and if he wields it correctly, 30% strikeouts are coming. Hard to bank on a full season, though.
17. Tyler Glasnow – Even at 130 IP, I love that in a 12-teamer when Glasnow obliterates when healthy.
18. Joe Ryan – The recent back issues are concerning, but he returned to the bump and sat 92 mph. Glistening WHIP arm.
Tier 4 – So Dang Close To Greatness
19. Kyle Bradish – Slider and Curve are cooking, leaning into sinker more than four-seamer vs. RHB is a lovely thing. Ready for 180+ IP.
20. Cam Schlittler – He’s just too good. I’m amazed I have him this high and yet, I watch him with an expanded arsenal (sinker now and better cutter!) and I can’t help myself.
21. Jesús Luzardo – I’m shocked I have him this high, but he’s gained three inches of drop on his sinker and started to use it against RHB. It’s a great plan given how poor of a four-seamer he has. Think normal Luzardo but fewer extremes if he’s suddenly a groundball guy + destroy LHBs.
22. Eury Pérez – Four-seamer is elite, and I’m expecting more growth in the TJS honeymoon season.
23. Framber Valdez – He can be oh-so-frustrating, but the curveball is looking good so far and he’ll likely be a strong force all year.
24. Nolan McLean – McLean has already improved his sweeper and curve to ridiculous levels, while leaning into a cutter to deal with LHB. I’m a believer now.
25. Nick Pivetta – I fell for him until the news of arm fatigue. Then he pitched and threw harder than last year. I’m so glad we’re past that.
Tier 5 – Quality Volume
26. Kevin Gausman – He is who he is. And that’s fine with me.
27. Shota Imanaga – Despite all the bad doom and gloom of last year, he still had a low WHIP and sub 4.00 ERA. Now his four-seamer is back up two ticks in the spring, with elite pitch separation between the four-seamer and splitter. I’m so in.
28. Nathan Eovaldi – He’s healthy and that’s all I need to see. He had a sub 2.00 ERA in 130 IP, ya’ll.
29. Trevor Rogers – The SWATCH life is real. He’s also improved his fastball since last season.
30. Sandy Alcantara – His four-seamer and sinker overpower, with a dominant changeup, and now there’s a cutter. Expect far better, though I have to put him underneath others who have been productive for longer more recently.
Tier 5.5 – The Pitcher List Hall Of Famers
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Tier 6 – Why Do I Feel So Scared?
31. Bubba Chandler – His four-seamer is 98 mph with elite vert and command. One of the best in the game. Give him time to find the rest and I find it hard to envision a season where he hurts your teams.
32. Dylan Cease – Who. Knows.
33. Jacob Misiorowski – He’s dope, but doesn’t command well, is a bit inefficient, and is a huge health risk.
34. Chase Burns – I prefer Burns’ skills to Jay Mis, but his whole limited usage situation and six-man rotation that is now not six-man because of Lodolo’s injury is strange. He also returned to four-seamer/slider instead of an expanded arsenal by the end of the spring.
35. Kris Bubic – He’s at 92 mph and looking healthy. Sure, there are health concerns, but in your 12-teamers, I’m favoring quality early from healthy arms more than volume for the full season past the fifth tier.
36. MacKenzie Gore – The move to Texas will help immensely. This is the breakout season we’ve been waiting for…if he can find a little more consistency with his command. He’s testing a sinker to LHB now, though! YAY!
Tier 7 – Youngins’ with a Chaperone
37. Drew Rasmussen – He’s stupid hard to hit and now gets a much better home park. Downside is just 150 IP, and a slight question of skill degradation.
38. Robbie Ray – I could have put him in the next tier down, but I highly doubt we’ll be pulling Ray out of our lineups again like we did in September of last season.
39. Tatsuya Imai – I’m not as impressed as I thought I’d be, but he was 96/97 mph in his last spring game and the reverse slider may be weird enough to get more whiffs than expected.
40. Cade Horton – Horton’s four-seamer is a legit cut-fastball and with the Cubs defense, he’s a surprise quality volume arm with more strikeout potential to find.
41. Sonny Gray – He’s Sonny and Gray. The volatility is annoying, but he’ll help in the end. The strikeout uptick lately is real with sweeper and sinker command.
Tier 8 – I Just Can’t Help Myself
42. Shane Baz – The new Baltimore scene may help him plenty, and what I’ve seen in the spring is a better array of secondaries. I don’t think we’ll dislike Baz this year, but the risk is still there.
43. Connelly Early – This might be really foolish and I thank you for reading the notes. I LOVE Early. I really do. He has a wide arsenal with 95+ mph velocity, whiffable secondaries, and overall just a high quality arm who will pitch for a winning the team. He’s now confirmed to start over the weekend (OH BABY), unlike his situation last week where I was simply reading the tea leaves, though there is a chance he gets displaced from the rotaiton in time so the Red Sox can secure another year of team control (he’d need 35 days in the minors). I simply don’t expect Early to be so rough that the Red Sox would entertain the idea, and I see a southpaw who will help your team all season. But the Shag Rug exists. Yes. That dang rug. Do whatever you feel.
44. Shane McClanahan – He was 93 mph then 94 mph in his first two starts, and his last outing was…fine. It’s a high risk/reward pick right now before we know more. Better than Strider given the ramp up and a better arsenal outside of the formerly upper-90s fastball. I dig the home park and his legit changeup with two solid breakers to pair with the now 94/95 mph four-seamer.
45. Michael King – I kept pushing him further down and down. King’s command hasn’t returned thus far and I sat there, looking at other pitchers who I felt good or great about, and asked myself “Why would I chance it with King?” Well, because the ceiling is a Top 15 arm. Very fair. I hate the haze right now.
46. Ryan Weathers – I’d love to grab him and get whatever we can as he’s healthy. Changeup can be so good.
Tier 9 – Innings But Are They Worth It?
47. Aaron Nola – I see last year as a lost year. His skills are still present and I’m buying back in.
48. Matthew Boyd – Boyd will soar in Wrigley during the early months, though the HRs could arrive with the warm weather in the summer.
49. Edward Cabrera – We have yet to see a season from Cabrera where he’s fully in rhythm and consistent with his mix, and he sure didn’t look polished in the spring. I dig the situation, though.
50. Andrew Abbott – Alright, alright. Eno sold me on Abbott’s regression more and he’s been shaky this spring. I still think his changeup and curveball gains are real, but why favor him over the rest? A good early schedule. Fair, but still not quite enough.
51. Gavin Williams – I just don’t know what he’ll look like. Sure hope he finds something that sticks.
52. Zac Gallen – Same with Gallen, on a great defensive squad in Arizona. Opening Day = all good to go. The downside? A horrific early schedule. He could still perform, but it does muddy the waters, and I understand pushing him under Tier 10 as a result. I’m conflicted about it.
53. Kodai Senga – Velocity is up on the four-seamer, and I realized he should be right where the rest of these potential Holly types should go, as a guy who can earn a QS each night on the bump. Wish the cutter was a little better, though.
54. Ranger Suárez – If Suárez can find his rhythm early, he’ll be solid for another year as he goes underrated for the nth straight year. He hasn’t found that rhythm in the spring, though, and you may get some FOMO looking at Tier 10. Your call.
Tier 10 – WILD CARD BABY
55. Emmet Sheehan – His four-seamer is fantastic, especially with his feel to keep it upstairs. Great slider and changeup too, but I had to lower him after seeing his velocity dip to ghastly levels (91.8 mph?!). It’s likely a product of his illness from early spring, though you have to be concerned this close to opening day.
56. Brandon Sproat – He’s throwing harder with a much better arsenal this spring for the Brewers and I’ve been loud about my excitement. He’ll even go opening weekend against the White Sox, allowing us to get a fantastic look earlier than others. He could be a major add you hold all season.
57. Mike Burrows – New slider is harder and that’s cool. I’m starting to believe the Astros have actually made him a solid arm. I really like that slider + changeup now.
58. Cody Ponce – Love the security in the rotation, I love he gets Rockie Road in his first start, and his four-seamer gets legit vert. I see a Holly label in his future.
59. Will Warren – Expanding arsenal this spring and gets to head to face the Giants for his first start. Let’s see how it goes there and it could turn into an easy hold for a while.
60. Mick Abel – He got the rotation spot and I love the fella…eventually. He has elite fastballs with great command, but he needs to work on his secondary feel before a true breakout appears. This has HIPSTER potential.
61. Kyle Harrison – New changeup is dope and he’s at 94+ mph. Can he command it all? May be super difficult given the new blister caused by said changeup, and despite starting Tuesday and featuring the pitch, he flexed poor ability to put it where he wanted to.
62. Braxton Ashcraft – The slider is dope, but he has little experience going deep into games and the four-seamer is Empty Velocity. I worry it’s not enough, but let’s take a shot and see what happens.
63. Andrew Painter – Take a chance given he has the opportunity to start the year. I’m not seeing the precision he needs, nor anything close to the 100+ velocity he had at 19 years old (he’s around 95/96 mph). Kinda love the four-seamer’s cut-action, but he needs to spot it well to take advantage against LHB, while RHB should get sinkers and a slew of secondaries instead.
64. Brandon Woodruff – Woody is in the rotation to begin the year and hopefully it’s good? His velocity was fine initially and fell plenty in his final spring outing, which likely spells limited usage early and a possible return to the IL in time. Be very cautious here.
Tier 11 – Fine, You Need Some Innings
65. Luis Castillo – I see him regressing more, but the home park is great. Fastball velocity keeps going down.
66. Zach Eflin – Overlooked after adding a tick of velocity this spring following back surgery. Great situation in Baltimore.
67. Ryne Nelson – Four-seamer is great, everything else is still a mystery. Shockingly good but boring?
68. Parker Messick – He’s a SWATCH who grabbed the rotation spot over Allen in Cleveland. He hasn’t been incredibly impressive this spring, but was far better on Tuesday and I wish he didn’t have to endure the Dodgers + Cubs to start the year.
69. Noah Cameron – I want to believe he’ll be better in his sophomore season, and yet, he’s looked ragged this spring. I’ve found myself pushing Cameron further and further down my board during drafts and realized “I don’t need to chase this.”
70. Matthew Liberatore – Great job security and generally improved arsenal. He gets a lovely opening day start and I’m giving him a slight bump simply because we’ll be able to drop him before the heavy majority of arms if it doesn’t necessitate a hold.
71. Dustin May – Looks ridiculous, but up two ticks in velocity AND has his cutter working to LHB. It’s kinda wild. Great situation in St. Louis and I want to see if it works out. Could be lovely safety blanket for a while.
72. Max Scherzer – His first start will be hosting Rockie Road. ALLLLL ABBOOOARRRD.
73. Brandon Williamson – It’s a great early schedule for Williamson and he’s done an excellent job of getting his cutter inside and changeup down-and-away.
Tier 12 – “Take Chances, Make Mistakes, Get Messy!”
74. Joey Cantillo – Many love him, I hate his four-seamer and overall command. He’ll oscillate between a lovely eight-strikeout performance and disaster in four frames, and I’m personally weighing that anxiety heavier than others. The best argument for him right now? He gets a solid first matchup in Seattle on Sunday. So FINE, grab him for that, but don’t hold on too tightly.
75. Jack Leiter – Cutter is cool, sinker has absurd potential, but the command and consistency are maddening.
76. Brayan Bello – Yes, the curveball is here, but the sweeper isn’t, and I don’t see a big enough difference between the two to say he’s anything different. It’s fine with a suspect WHIP.
77. Justin Wrobleski – I think he earns a rotation spot in time, but he doesn’t at the moment. It’s silly, IMO. What will happen in all likelihood: Sasaki starts and it goes horribly, leading to Wrobleski appearing before the end of the fourth, and snatching the Win with ease. Maybe one more turn of that before the Dodgers had him the pearl in the first. This is a guess, though, and I’m not recommending a hold for this specific outcome.
78. Max Meyer – His slider is downright disgusting, but will the rest of the arsenal step up? Feels like this could be another season of “Here’s a dope eight strikeout game, good luck figuring out when the next one comes.”
79. Tanner Bibee – Bibee followed a high strikeout game with absolute chaos, eliciting feelings of 2025’s hot summer. I understand there’s a chance it works out, I’m awfully skeptical.
Tier 13 – Initial Week Streamers
80. David Peterson – Peterson gets the Pirates and while I don’t love his inconsistent command that leads to a poor WHIP across a season, it sure looks like he’ll provide value in the short term.
81. Clay Holmes – Same with Peterson, but a two-start week against the Cardinals + Giants, with a little less hope for a clean six frames.
82. Chad Patrick – Patrick will host the White Sox this weekend and while I have my concerns about his cutter/four-seamer approach, the Brewers are sure to rely on him more than the four frames we saw last season.
83. Steven Matz – You know, Matz has looked pretty dang good in the spring for what he does. A new slider helps and heading to St. Louis on Sunday works for me. Not great? Let him go and pick up that SP #4/#5 you were eyeing.
84. Rhett Lowder – I liked him more when he was getting the Pirates on Monday than the Red Sox on Sunday, but he’s still interesting with a great changeup, high ride sinker, and a solid slider. I’m curious if he can pull it off.
85. Anthony Kay – He’s sitting 95/96 as a SWATCH for the White Sox?! Not a bad “let’s see what happens” play, though he was shelled in his last outing. I’m not in love with a start in Milwaukee, but it could be the start of something fun.
86. Slade Cecconi – I saw Slade throw 34% cutters at 89 mph with great cut action and I was so in – he threw it 3% of the time last year! And then in his last start, he barely touched it. I DON’T GET IT. He’s been granted the gift of the Mariners in Seattle for his first outing and I can see it going well…if the cutter is present.
87. Shane Smith – I’m not in on Smith given an arsenal that changes form each outing, but he’ll get the Brewers on opening day and if you want to take an early shot, he’s an option.
88. Chris Paddack – Paddack will host Rockie Road over the weekend. That’s all I’ve got for you.
Tier 14 – HIPSTERs Who Will Haunt You
89. Landen Roupp – Great curveball should return more whiffs this year with a stable rotation spot. I also like the cutter, change, and sinker, but he hasn’t had a spring start to display his ability to wield them all across a full outing + he has a tough opening schedule.
90. Kyle Leahy – He has a rotation spot and a legit slider + wide arsenal. I worry his 93+ mph heater is too mid, even if he has excellent extension. I wish he didn’t have to get the Mets to kick off the season, and I hope to be in on him in a few weeks.
91. Jacob Lopez – Hey, maybe he suddenly has the strikeout explosion we saw for thirteen straight outings in the heat of summer? Too bad he pitches for the Athletics.
92. Cade Cavalli – His curveball is awesome, and he throws hard, but it’s Empty Velocity and I don’t trust the team context to help him out.
93. Reid Detmers – Maybe this is the year that Detmers can be the southpaw stud I saw in him way back in, what , 2021? I highly doubt it, sadly. Nothing is grabbing my attention that gives him an edge over others, especially with the disadvantage of pitching for the Angels.
94. Jack Flaherty – A bit underrated as a strikeout arm. Will be a HIPSTER plenty of the year.
Tier 15 – Quick Decisions Are The Best Decisions
95. Randy Vasquez – His velocity is still up well over 95 mph with a focus on the cutter, but the command has been off. Maybe worth the shot against the visiting Tigers?
96. Brandon Pfaadt – Pfaadt is experimenting with his approach once again, and hopefully taking steps in the right direction. The schedule is too tough to take the shot, especially after last year’s debacle.
97. Seth Lugo – His curve isn’t the velocity we want to see and I’m starting to believe he already reached the age cliff.
98. Michael McGreevy – He flashed stellar command last year and gets to host the Rays opening weekend. There’s a chance, y’all.
99. Grant Holmes – No, we haven’t seen REB feature better stuff than before his UCL injury. Maybe he gives you 6+ strikeouts against the Royals.
100. Jack Kochanowicz – I’m shocked, too, but the man formerly known as the Jack of One Trade is actually the Jack of All Trades with a 96/97 mph heater + solid stuff slider and changeup. This rank is more of a “Hey, he’s different now!” than it is “YOOOO PICK HIM UP!”, but if Kochanowicz can hold that velocity over 75+ pitches and locate his arsenal, he can be valuable despite the horrific team context. Wait, you have him in over Soriano?! Because Soriano is what he is, and that’s a WHIP killer. At least Jack has a shot to not be that.
Where are my honorable mentions?!
You’ll find them here next Monday! I’ll have write-ups for every pitcher in every rotation as well. Rest assured, I considered a whole lot of other arms (Tyler Mahle, Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr. Jr., Luis Severino, Michael Soroka, Brady Singer, Eduardo Rodriguez, Adrian Houser, Reynaldo López, José Soriano, Eric Lauer, Casey Mize, Mitch Keller, Michael Wacha, Janson Junk, and Kyle Freeland, for example), and felt they weren’t worth your attention right now in 12-teamers.
Good luck everyone!
Labels Legend
Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Hipster
Vargas Rule
Frizzle
Streaming Option
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question
Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
