Gov. Janet Mills, left, and Graham Platner. (Photos by Joe Phelan and Gregory Rec/Staff Photographers)
Likely Democratic primary voters support political newcomer Graham Platner by a nearly 2-to-1 margin over Gov. Janet Mills, according to a new independent poll.
And the survey from Emerson College released Thursday found both candidates leading Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins in a hypothetical general election matchup.
The poll found that 55% of those likely to vote in the June 9 primary preferred Platner, while 28% chose Mills. Thirteen percent were undecided. The survey got responses from 530 voters, a relatively small sample size.
In hypothetical general election matchups, 48% chose Platner over Collins (41%) with 12% undecided. Mills led Collins by a smaller margin, 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided. Nearly 1,100 Mainers were surveyed about the hypothetical matchups.
The poll of likely Democratic primary voters had a 4.2% margin of error, while the hypothetical general election matchups had a 2.9% margin of error.
The new poll was conducted March 21-23 — only days after the Mills campaign began running attack ads highlighting Platner’s controversial online comments dismissing sexual assault and blaming rape victims.
Mills followed up with another attack ad this week, highlighting Platner’s past use of slurs for people who are homosexual and people with disabilities.
Platner, a 41-year-old veteran, responded to Mills by holding a press conference with supporters. He also released a new spot explaining that the harsh comments he made in Reddit forums from 2009 to 2021 came during a difficult time in his life. He had just returned from combat and struggled with depression, isolation and post traumatic stress disorder, he said.
Mills’ missive was widely seen as targeting female voters, who have made up a majority of the electorate in recent Democratic primaries. On Thursday, she released another ad featuring a military sexual assault survivor criticizing Platner’s comments.
But the poll suggests her attacks aren’t landing — at least not yet. Platner held an 18-point advantage among women, 50% to 32%, and a whopping 41% advantage among men, 63% to 22%, the survey found.
Both Mills, 78, and Collins, 73, are underwater in terms of favorability. Fifty-seven percent had an unfavorable view of Collins compared to 54% who view Mills negatively.
Respondents were split over Platner, with 42% holding a favorable view and 38% holding a negative view. Another 20% didn’t know enough about him to offer an opinion.
Platner holds an advantage in favorability among unenrolled voters, who comprise a third of Maine’s one million registered voters. Platner is 6 points above water with independents, while Mills is 13 points underwater — and Collins is 30 points under, the poll said.
Platner’s fundraising advantage over Mills is allowing him to blanket the airwaves. Through the end of last year, Platner had raised nearly $7.8 million compared to Mills’ $2.7 million. Mills, meanwhile, is relying on her widespread name recognition — and on the new attack ads — to take Platner down a peg.
The polling landscape is looking increasingly bleak for the two-term governor, who is trying to make the case that she’s the only candidate who can beat Collins in a general election.
Earlier this month, Portland-based Pan Atlantic Research said Platner was leading Mills by 7 points. That was a 17-point swing from October, when the same firm said Mills had a 10-point lead shortly after entering the race.
In February, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center found Platner had a 38-point lead over Mills in the primary.
