The Orioles and right-hander Shane Baz are finalizing a five-year, $68MM extension, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Cornerstone Baseball Group client was previously slated to reach free agency after the 2028 season and had agreed to a $3.5MM salary for 2026. Passan says in a follow-up tweet the deal buys out his three arb years and two free agent years, so it appears this will overwrite his 2026 salary in some way. If that proves to be the case, this deal would pay him $64.5MM in new money over four added years. MLBTR has learned that Baz will get a $4MM signing bonus and $1MM salary in 2026, followed by salaries of $7MM, $10MM, $21MM and $25MM in the next four years.
Baltimore is evidently quite confident in their ability to get the best out of Baz, a pitcher who is clearly talented but who still comes with some question marks. Baz is a former first-rounder and top prospect but injuries had held him back to the point where he had barely 100 big league innings going into 2025. He did pitch 166 1/3 innings last year but with an uninspiring 4.87 earned run average. Despite that, the O’s surrendered a package of four prospects and a draft pick to get him a few months ago and are now making a big financial commitment to him for years to come.
The Pirates took Baz with the 12th overall pick back in 2017. Before reaching the majors, he was flipped to the Rays in the 2018 Chris Archer trade. Baz debuted with the Rays late in 2021, making three starts. In the minors that year, he posted a 2.06 earned run average while striking out 37.9% of opponents and limiting walks to a 4.4% clip.
Going into 2022, he was considered one of the top pitching prospects in the sport but he required arthroscopic elbow surgery in April of that year. He came back later that year and made a few more starts but then elbow issues popped up again. He underwent Tommy John surgery in September of that year and missed the entire 2023 season.
He was still rehabbing at the beginning of 2024 but eventually got back on the mound and showed some promise. He made 14 starts for the Rays that year with a 3.06 ERA, though his 21.6% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate were both around average. Going into 2025, Baz was finally healthy after many years of elbow issues, which had limited him to 119 2/3 career innings. He made 31 starts and logged 166 1/3 innings in 2025. Unfortunately, the overall results weren’t good. As mentioned, Baz had a 4.87 ERA on the year.
There are some reasons for optimism under the hood. The Rays were playing in a minor league park last year due to hurricane damage to Tropicana Field. It’s possible Baz may have been impacted by that, as he had a 5.90 ERA at Steinbrenner Field but a 3.86 ERA on the road. Normally, about 12% of fly balls turn into home runs at the major league level. For Baz, that number was 18.9% at home and 11.1% on the road last year.
For the whole year, home and away, Baz struck out a solid 24.8% of batters faced. His 9% walk rate was around average. His 46.7% ground ball rate was a few ticks better than par. His 3.95 SIERA was optimistic that he deserved to have an ERA about a run better than where it actually ended up. His fastball averaged 97 miles per hour on the year while he also mixed in a cutter, slider, curveball and changeup.
The Orioles are clearly of the mind that Baz still has his best days ahead of him. Back in December, they sent prospects Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret and Austin Overn to the Rays, along with a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick, to get Baz and his three remaining years of club control. Three of those four prospects were taken in the first three rounds of recent drafts. The other, Forret, was a 14th-round pick but had become arguably the best prospect in the bunch. The draft pick will be the 33rd overall pick this summer.
There are some parallels to Baltimore’s journey with Trevor Rogers. He was the National League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021 after he posted a 2.64 ERA over 25 starts for the Marlins. Then Rogers was injured and/or struggling for many years, diminishing his stock. From the start of 2022 to the 2024 deadline, Rogers only tossed 230 1/3 innings with a 4.92 ERA. The O’s felt they could get him back on track and sent Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to the Marlins to get Rogers when he still has two-plus years of control remaining.
It took a while for that bet on Rogers to pay off but it did. He struggled with the O’s late in 2024 and had a knee injury at the start of 2025. After that, he was brilliant. He eventually made 18 starts for Baltimore last year with a 1.81 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. He got the Opening Day nod yesterday against the Twins and earned a win by throwing seven shutout innings.
Like with Rogers, Baz was plucked away from his Florida club as Baltimore sent a notable prospect package down the coast. Both pitchers had displayed talent but had gone through some injury challenges and posted some underwhelming numbers. The Rogers pick-up has worked out very well. The O’s clearly feel good about getting similar results out of Baz.
Baz is currently 26 but this will be his age-27 season, with his birthday coming up in June. He was set to hit free agency a few months after his 29th birthday. He could have been in line for a nice payday at that point if he pitches well over the next three years. But all pitchers are aware of the potential for injuries, with Baz having direct experience in that department. Rather than betting on his own health, he is cashing in on a robust deal right now.
He will therefore delay his path to free agency by two years but could still be in line for a really nice payday at that point. In recent years, position players in their early 30s have seemingly had far less earning power than their late-20s counterparts. When it comes to pitching, you can still get paid if you’re still putting up numbers. Dating back to the 2021-2022 offseason, there have been seven free agent deals with an average annual value of $25MM or more for position players 31 or older. That number is 13 for pitchers.
In terms of recent extensions for pitchers between three and four years of service time, Baz is coming in under Logan Webb‘s $90MM, which is the top of the class. That’s understandable since Webb had already been established as a frontline pitcher at that point. Cristopher Sánchez is next on the list but that was a different case since he was already locked up via a previous extension. Baz is just a bit above Cristian Javier‘s $64MM deal with the Astros and Sandy Alcantara‘s $56MM deal with the Marlins. Both of those pitchers had better career numbers than Baz does now but the deals are also a few years old at this point, so Baz seemingly creeps beyond them with some inflation.
For the Orioles, they have been a bit more aggressive in terms of spending money lately. Mike Elias was hired to run the front office in 2018 when the club was rebuilding and owned by the Angelos family. Since then, they have become a contender and are now owned by David Rubenstein. For a long time, Elias never signed anyone to a deal worth $50MM or more. In the past eight months, the O’s signed free agent Pete Alonso $155MM, gave Samuel Basallo a $67MM extension and now this deal with Baz.
It’s now possible that Baz is the key cog in their long-term rotation. Rogers, Chris Bassitt and Zach Eflin are all slated for free agency after 2026. Kyle Bradish is under club control through 2028. Dean Kremer will be slated for free agency after 2027 as long as he gets at least 60 days of service time here in 2026. As those guys depart, they could perhaps be replaced by prospects like Trey Gibson or Luis De Leon, while external additions will presumably be brought in from time to time. As the picture fluctuates, Baz will be a fixture of the group, if Baltimore can push him down the same upside path as Rogers.
Photos courtesy of Morgan Tencza, Katie Stratman, Imagn Images
