NCAA Tournament: Purdue expert previews the Arizona Wildcats game, makes a score prediction

SAN JOSE—Getting past the Sweet 16 was the first step for Arizona, but there’s still one more game before it can end that 25-year drought of reaching the Final Four. And to do so it will require knocking off a team that ended its own long drought a few seasons ago.

Second-seeded Purdue made the NCAA final in 2024, its first trip to the Final Four since 1980. And the Boilermakers (30-8) still have three starters left from that team, making them arguably the most experienced opponent the UA will have faced this season.

To better understand Purdue, we reached out to Andrew Ledman at SB Nation sister site Hammer and Rails. Below are his decisive answers to our passive aggressive questions:

AZ Desert Swarm: Purdue needed a clutch tip-in from Trey Kaufman-Renn to beat pesky Texas in the Sweet 16. What was it most effective at in that win, and where did it struggle?

Andrew Ledman: “Honestly they struggled just about everywhere. Purdue was 4 of 20 from 3 with Fletcher Loyer hitting 4 of 8 and some basic knowledge of numbers tells you the rest of the team was 0 for 12. This was against a Texas defense that was 15th in 3-point defense in the SEC. Now, they played much much better defense in the tournament, but 4 of 20 isn’t sustainable. On defense they allowed Texas to shoot 44 percent from 3, granted some of them were very tough shots. They also allowed 12 offensive rebounds which really hurt them.

“Oscar Cluff had a tough game and ultimately fouled out when he fouled the Texas player who was driving to the lane with 11 seconds left down by 3. That foul sent Texas to the line and tied the game. Just a very bad mistake. Also, Purdue struggled at the free throw line going 15 of 20 including some very crucial ones late. Luckily Trey Kaufman-Renn was his reliable self going 8 of 10 from the field and totaling 20 points. Purdue did out rebound Texas by one.”
The Boilermakers dropped 4 of 6 to end the regular season but now are on a 7-game win streak. Did something change or is this just the product of a veteran team knowing that there’s no tomorrow?
“I think a large part of it is the veteran team knowing this is it. This three seniors who have won so many games for Purdue have seen it all. They lost as a 1 seed to a 16 seed. They made it to the national championship game. They’ve won Big Ten titles. They’ve won Big Ten Tournament titles. But, none of that matters right now. This is it. The last dance. The last hurrah.
“From a purely basketball perspective Purdue has done a much better job on 3-point defense, a lot of that is effort, and just defensive intensity in general. A certain subset of the fan base believes that Purdue is playing better now that Braden Smith has the chase for the assist record behind him, but that never made sense to me since the team started playing well again in the Big Ten Tournament when he was still chasing the record.”
Speaking of the elderly, the trio of Kaufman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith have all played in more than 145 games at Purdue including 12 NCAA tourney games apiece the last three seasons. How valuable will that experience be, particularly against an Arizona team that starts three freshmen?
“First off, as a 40-year old I’m dying at you calling them elderly. If they’re elderly I must have one foot in the grave. Second, yes I think that experience will be invaluable. Purdue has truly seen it all over their four years as discussed earlier (Trey has been here five years due to a redshirt.). If you watched the tip-in from Kaufman-Renn last night you saw that he barely reacted. He was stoic even as the rest of the team mobbed him. That’s just the kind of player he is. He’s balanced out by Smith who is demanding on the court and can lead the offense to do whatever he wants. Then there’s Loyer who is the most vocal of the three and takes over in huddles and during timeouts. They balance each other nicely and it’s going to take all three playing at the height of their powers to take down the Wildcats.”
Arizona scored 60 points in the paint and 30 at the line against Arkansas. Do you think Purdue is capable of preventing the Wildcats from going inside and drawing fouls, and if so, how will it do so?
“I would love to say yes and that Purdue has a secret plan to stop Arizona from doing this, but the truth is I’m not sure they do. Arizona is an offensive juggernaut there’s no doubt about it. The Purdue defense has struggled all season at preventing quicker athletic players get to the lane and score. However, what Purdue will likely try to do is slow the game down and make it all about efficiency. Purdue is an incredibly efficient offense and if they can make the game about that they’ve got a chance.”

What is the one thing Purdue must do in order to win this game, and what’s one thing it cannot have happen?
“Dictate the pace. Purdue’s offense CAN run with most teams but I’m not sure they can do so against Arizona. Purdue needs to slow the game down, move the ball, and find the best shot like they always do. They do that and this could be a much better game for the Boilermakers.
“Now, what they can’t do is shoot 4 of 20 from three again. Only having one player hit a three is a huge flashing siren for this offense. If a defense takes away everyone but Loyer it makes it that much harder to get anything going.”

Prediction time. Does Arizona end its 25-year Final Four drought or do the Boilermakers make their second in three seasons? Give us a score pick.
“Honestly, I’m shocked it’s been 25 years since Arizona has made the Final Four. I did not know that. They’ve been such a good program seemingly forever. Look, I’m a homer, I mean I run SB Nation’s Purdue blog for goodness sake. But I’m also a realist. I know that this Arizona team has lost just two games all season. That being of course to Kansas and Texas Tech. Purdue handled Texas Tech with no problem. Maybe there’s something in that game that Purdue can find and exploit? I realize that’s a long shot but I’ve gotta stick with my guys and go with experience making the difference. I think Braden Smith’s shooting touch comes back and Loyer makes a bunch of threes and Kaufman-Renn handles the inside just enough to push Purdue past Arizona and back to the Final Four. Purdue 78, Arizona 75.”