The qualifiers are done, the play-offs have all been played. Hearts have been broken, but finally we know the identity of all 48 teams that will be at the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Now, with the whole competition mapped out in front of us, we can start thinking about who might win the whole thing. So, we have taken the not inconsiderable task of ranking, from No 1 to 48, which teams look the most likely to be on that podium in New Jersey on July 19.
This is a new version of the previous rankings we put out after the draw was made in December, which included all of the teams who could potentially have been at the tournament, updated to reflect the results of the European and intercontinental play-offs.
You will all have your own opinions — feel free to share them in the comments. But think of this as a guide to how the tournament might pan out, rather than a deeply serious prediction. Exciting, isn’t it?
1. Spain
FIFA ranking: 2
It’s a little odd to think Spain weren’t really many people’s top choice to win the 2024 European Championship, but as the tournament progressed, it became clearer and clearer that they were the best team in Germany. Their incredible array of young, attacking talent is still maturing, which is pretty terrifying for everyone else. It will take some effort to stop them.
2. Argentina
FIFA ranking: 3
Not only are Argentina the reigning champions from Qatar in 2022, but they also won back-to-back Copa America titles in 2021 and 2024. For recent pedigree, can we really look much further? With the same manager, Lionel Scaloni, and the same GOAT, Lionel Messi, their status as favourites is deserved — albeit Messi really is getting on a bit. He will turn 39 during the tournament.
Lionel Messi lifts the Copa America trophy in 2024 (Miguel Rodriguez/Anadolu via Getty Images)
3. France
FIFA ranking: 1
On paper, France should probably win it. They arguably have the strongest XI in the tournament and their whole squad is strewn with enviable riches, especially in their Kylian Mbappe-led attack. Didier Deschamps’ task, in his final tournament before stepping down, is to knit it all together, but that didn’t happen at Euro 2024, when a dreary side never convinced. They have moved up to top spot in the FIFA rankings, but we’re keeping them at No 3 here.
4. Brazil
FIFA ranking: 6
Brazil are overdue a World Cup win… their last one was so long ago, it was when original Ronaldo had a quarter of a haircut. After a chaotic qualifying campaign, can we really expect them to challenge, or will it be another early exit against European opposition? Manager Carlo Ancelotti, a serial winner, could be their trump card.
5. Netherlands
FIFA ranking: 7
It almost feels like the Netherlands having an incredibly strong team has snuck up on us. They have reached the latter stages at tournaments in recent years without ever really having a group of players you could get excited about, but not anymore. Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk is the experienced outlier, but the rest are all in their mid-twenties and maturing at the same time. Expect big things.
6. England
FIFA ranking: 4
Years of disappointment mean English fans can find it difficult to believe they’re among the favourites for the World Cup, but speak to people from any other country and they will tell you Thomas Tuchel’s side are right up there, and rightly so: their results were flawless in qualifying, they possess great depth, have a Champions League-winning manager and reached two finals in their past three tournaments. A tricky March international break doesn’t change the fact that they will be among the favourites, but a tough group means they’re just outside the top five.
Harry Kane and England have been beaten finalists at the past two European Championships (Zhizhao Wu/Getty Images)
7. Portugal
FIFA ranking: 5
The winners of the 2025 Nations League (plus the 2019 Nations League and the 2016 Euros) have never reached a World Cup final. Will 2026 be their year? The talent is there, but they’re a little down this list because question marks loom over Roberto Martinez’s tactics and how he uses that guy Cristiano Ronaldo, who will be 41 next summer.
Could Cristiano Ronaldo win the World Cup, a trophy that has eluded him, at 41? (Seb Daly/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
8. Germany
FIFA ranking: 10
The Germans have, by their standards, gone through a rough time in the past few years: they haven’t got past the quarter-finals in their past four tournaments, crashing out at the World Cup group stage in 2018 and 2022. But they do have some talent, and if they manage to solve their centre-forward problem, bet on them to look more like the Germany we know and fear from years gone by.
9. Colombia
FIFA ranking: 13
The 2024 Copa America finalists finished third in South American qualifying, largely because of a six-game winless run/existential crisis, but they set themselves right towards the end and will go to the tournament with high hopes. James Rodriguez will lead them in what will probably be his last World Cup, but the danger man is surely Luis Diaz, the former Liverpool winger in terrific form at Bayern Munich.
10. Croatia
FIFA ranking: 11
Croatia’s ageing squad may have more wrinkles than grandma’s favourite bedsheet, but it would be unwise to write them off, even if four of their first-choice midfield and attack are aged 34 and over. To be fair, they would probably like to be ignored — the underdog tag has helped them reach a final and a semi-final in the past two tournaments.
11. Morocco
FIFA ranking: 8
A fascinating case. A lot has happened since we initially compiled these rankings in December: Morocco hosted the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), initially lost the final, sacked manager Walid Regragui, but 57 days later were awarded the title anyway after Senegal’s protest against refereeing decisions. That they’re technically African champions, for now, doesn’t change our opinion that the FIFA rankings slightly overrate their chances, but you can’t argue with their semi-final appearance four years ago and their squad still being very strong.
12. Uruguay
FIFA ranking: 17
As preparation goes, losing 5-1 to the United States in a November friendly (admittedly missing some key players) with a couple of stodgy draws since is not ideal, nor is Marcelo Bielsa calling a press conference to confirm he won’t be resigning. But they qualified with relative ease, beating Argentina and Brazil (twice) along the way. They must surely perform better than last time, when they slunk out embarrassingly in the group stage.
13. Belgium
FIFA ranking: 9
With their golden generation either gone or lingering on (this will surely be 34-year-old Kevin De Bruyne’s last World Cup) Belgium remain a work in progress, nowhere near their FIFA-ranking glory days (you’ll never sing that, etc), but capable of causing damage, even just via the fast-emerging potential world star that is Jeremy Doku.
14. Senegal
FIFA ranking: 14
Senegal have twice reached the knockout stage (2002 quarter-finalists, round of 16 in 2022) and you would expect the same again this time from a team familiar to Premier League viewers (including Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson, Iliman Ndiaye, Pape Matar Sarr and Ismaila Sarr). Maybe more relevant is that AFCON ‘win’, even though at the time of writing they aren’t officially champions…
15. Egypt
FIFA ranking: 29
One of the World Cup’s great enigmas. The seven-time AFCON winners have only ever qualified for the World Cup three times, one of which was 1934, and they have never actually won a match at the finals, going out in the first round in 1990 and 2018. This time, they will hope Mohamed Salah goes into the tournament at full fitness, and with a little more support around him, maybe they can improve on their miserable historical record.
Mohamed Salah was carrying an injury going into the 2022 World Cup (Monirul Bhuiyan/AFP via Getty Images)
16. South Korea
FIFA ranking: 25
If their big-name players turn up, South Korea are Asia’s best bet to go far in the competition, but that’s a huge if. Son Heung-min will be a tournament poster boy and he’ll need Wolverhampton Wanderers’ Hwang Hee-chan and Lee Kang-in of Paris Saint-Germain to step up if South Korea are to repeat their heroics from 2002, when they made the most of home advantage to become the first Asian side to reach the semi-finals. They have a decent draw, with Mexico, South Africa and potentially the weakest team from the European play-offs, Czech Republic, in Group A.
17. Ecuador
FIFA ranking: 23
Ecuador finished second behind Argentina in qualifying, particularly impressive given they had three points deducted for an administrative gaffe. Don’t expect many thrillers: their qualification was built on a miserly defence, conceding five goals in 18 games while only scoring 14. At a tournament where a good third place in your group should be enough to go through, they ought to fancy their chances.
18. Mexico
FIFA ranking: 15
The perennial second-rounders finally broke their curse of losing in the round of 16 at seven consecutive World Cups in 2022… by being dumped out of the group stage. To do the same again here on home soil would be a national disaster. Expect the home fans — and 17-year-old wonderkid Gilberto Mora — to lift them to greater heights. They were arguably the biggest winners of the draw and should kick the tournament off in June with optimism.
19. Norway
FIFA ranking: 31
Norway’s first World Cup since 1998 will see them firmly installed as the resident ‘dark horses’ at this edition. They were a juggernaut in qualifying, winning eight from eight and scoring a whopping 37 goals (16 of which came from Erling Haaland), which makes them a hugely dangerous team.
Erling Haaland’s goals secured Norway’s place at a World Cup for the first time in 28 years (Image Photo Agency/Getty Images)
20. Ivory Coast
FIFA ranking: 34
Surprisingly, for the nation that has brought us Didier Drogba and Yaya Toure, Ivory Coast have never made it out of the group stage at a World Cup. Their prospects of winning the whole thing are slim, but they were unbeaten in qualifying and won AFCON on home soil two years ago.
21. Japan
FIFA ranking: 18
The first team (aside from the hosts) to qualify for the tournament, thanks more to Asia’s scheduling than their own brilliance, they topped their final group emphatically, letting in just three goals over their 10 games. This will be their eighth World Cup in a row, but they have yet to get past the first knockout round: they certainly have the talent to go further this time.
22. Switzerland
FIFA ranking: 19
Their sixth consecutive World Cup appearance. Is there anything to suggest Switzerland can go further than the last 16, the round they’ve got to in four of the past five tournaments? Well, yeah, maybe; they went unbeaten in 2025 (10 games), beating Mexico and the United States along the way, and with a settled team, they could do some damage.
23. United States
FIFA ranking: 16
The co-hosts have been patchy under Mauricio Pochettino: hiring a blue-chip manager to guide them in their home tournament wasn’t going to plan and after an upturn in results, things have dipped again. Steering a team towards a World Cup with limited competitive action is always a tricky task, and their prospects at home are uncertain.
Christian Pulisic will be crucial to the USMNT’s hopes (John Dorton/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images)
24. Turkey
FIFA ranking: 22
Anyone hyping up Turkey’s chances at a major tournament will have their disastrous Euro 2020 campaign in mind, where they were tipped as dark horses but lost all three games. But while many mourned Italy not qualifying through the play-offs, it would have been a much bigger detriment to the tournament if Turkey hadn’t made it, broadly down to their individual attacking talent. Let’s not call them dark horses again… but they should be fun horses, at least.
25. Australia
FIFA ranking: 27
Qualification was slightly hairier than it could have been and they drew too many games, but Australia did also beat Japan. Under Tony Popovic, they will still think they can surpass their previous best performance of the first knockout round. There’s plenty of excitement about young winger Nestory Irankunda, doing his thing at club level for Watford. The 20-year-old looks like he will be Australia’s key attacking threat next summer.
26. Ghana
FIFA ranking: 74
Any team that contains Mohammed Kudus and Antoine Semenyo should be worth the admission fee alone (although not at FIFA prices, obviously), but Ghana can be inconsistent (they didn’t even qualify for this year’s AFCON), and sacking manager Otto Addo after the recent international friendlies tells you not all is well. Still, they are one of several nations who, with momentum, could go on a bit of a run.
27. Algeria
FIFA ranking: 28
Algeria marched through qualifying without ever really being spectacular. Guided from the dugout by former Switzerland coach Vladimir Petkovic, on the pitch, former Manchester City winger Riyad Mahrez is still their leader, but it probably won’t be long before he passes the baton to 25-year-old Mohamed Amoura or another young forward. You would be surprised if they don’t make it out of their group — although Austria and Jordan will be no joke — but much more than that might be a stretch.
28. Iran
FIFA ranking: 21
It feels wrong including them in this ranking at all, given that we still don’t know if they’ll actually be playing. All the noises coming out of their FA suggest not, but FIFA president Gianni Infantino has the blinkers on and is insisting they will still take part. As they are still, at the time of writing, participating, we’ve got them in 28th spot because of the experience in their squad.
29. Austria
FIFA ranking: 24
Briefly emerged as an outside bet in Euro 2024 when topping a group containing France and the Netherlands, but then came unstuck against Turkey. Under Ralf ‘Red Bull’ Rangnick, expect vertical dynamism, plus attacking gems Christoph Baumgartner and Marcel Sabitzer. With a bit of luck, they could go far, but they were handed a very tough draw, which costs them a few places.
30. Canada
FIFA ranking: 30
There were high hopes for Canada in 2022, but they crashed out with three defeats. This time, with home advantage, Jonathan David up front, Alphonso Davies helping pull the strings (assuming he is fit) and manager Jesse Marsch turning them into a more aggressive, direct outfit, Canada should do better. And while they will be second favourites to Switzerland in their group, they will still fancy their chances of qualifying.
Alphonso Davies suffered an anterior cruciate ligament injury while on Canada duty in March 2025 (Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
31. Paraguay
FIFA ranking: 40
It’s been a long time since Paraguay beat Japan to reach the quarter-finals in 2010, where they lost to eventual winners Spain. We haven’t seen them in a World Cup since, but an obdurate defence (they conceded 10 goals in 18 qualifiers, scoring only 14 themselves) suggests they’ll be hard to beat. And boring to watch.
32. Saudi Arabia
FIFA ranking: 61
Saudi Arabia made heavy work of qualifying, with some truly unconvincing performances and results leading to Roberto Mancini’s dismissal in October 2024. In truth, they didn’t improve too much after Herve Renard returned — which may explain why, at the time of writing, reports suggest he is about to be sacked — but as they showed when they beat eventual champions Argentina under the Frenchman in one of the shocks of the 2022 World Cup, they are capable of producing some big results.
33. Sweden
FIFA ranking: 38
What to make of Sweden? Aside from Premier League strikers Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, this is a fairly average crop of talent, but is it ‘losing all your qualifiers so you have to rely on the Nations League back door to get into the play-offs’ average? Former Chelsea coach Graham Potter got them through the play-offs, and despite their previous record, you wonder if they might have enough to cause some problems now they’re actually through.
34. Panama
FIFA ranking: 33
With traditional CONCACAF powerhouses U.S., Canada and Mexico having no need for qualifying as hosts, the path was open for Panama to dominate. Which they did… sort of. They won their group but drew three games, including twice against Suriname, so can they translate that into relative success at the tournament? Maybe, but they needed a kind draw and, after being matched with England, Croatia and Ghana, you don’t fancy their chances.
35. Scotland
FIFA ranking: 43
Their astonishing victory against Denmark to seal their first qualification since 1998 is still so fresh in the memory, even a few months on, that it would be easy to think Scotland could win the whole thing. They won’t, but they have as good a chance as any of making it through their group, assuming Scott McTominay and John McGinn take their domestic excellence to the international game.
36. Tunisia
FIFA ranking: 44
Tunisia did not concede a single goal in 10 qualifiers, winning nine of them, but to describe them as having a granite-like back line would need more rigorous testing than it got against Namibia and Liberia. Getting out of the group stage, which they have never done before, from six attempts, would be a huge success.
37. South Africa
FIFA ranking: 60
A glance at their qualification record would suggest South Africa only just squeaked through, but they had to overcome a three-point deduction for fielding an ineligible player, so they’re stronger than their record suggests. This is their first World Cup since hosting in 2010, and their prospects might be aided by the fact that the core of their team is provided by the dominant club side Mamelodi Sundowns. A decent draw means they will fancy their chances of making it out of their group.
38. Qatar
FIFA ranking: 55
Four years ago, they were among the more pathetic hosts in World Cup history, losing their three games by an aggregate score of 7-1. But on either side of that disaster, they won and then retained the Asian Cup, so they’re clearly not complete jokers. Actually having to go through a qualification campaign might stand them in good stead, rather than the succession of soft friendlies four years ago… but they will still be among the favourites for a first-round exit, even if their draw could have been tougher.
39. Czech Republic
FIFA ranking: 41
Having reached only one World Cup since 1990, the Czech Republic might have been pessimistic about their chances in the play-offs, but got through both games on penalties, beating Ireland and then Denmark. Patrik Schick remains their most potent attacker, but there’s not much else to write home about.
40. New Zealand
FIFA ranking: 85
New Zealand are one of the biggest beneficiaries of an expanded World Cup, with Oceania receiving one direct qualification spot for the first time, helping them reach their first finals since 2010. Chris Wood was there in South Africa and he remains their star player and focal point. It might not be pretty, but they can get a result, shown by their 1-1 draw in Norway in October.
41. Jordan
FIFA ranking: 63
Jordan continue to surprise and delight by punching above their weight. After shocking the 2023 Asian Cup by reaching the final when most thought they would struggle to get past the first round, they qualified for the World Cup for the first time, confirming their place with a 3-0 win against Oman in June. Some concern might come from some rough results in post-qualification friendlies, and they will have to get past the “just happy to be there” attitude if they are to make an impact.
42. Bosnia and Herzegovina
FIFA ranking: 65
They were just 13 minutes away from securing qualification when a late Austrian equaliser dropped them into the play-offs, where they consigned Italy to a third successive World Cup absence in an extraordinary penalty shootout. If you like your strikers old and gangly, Edin Dzeko, formerly of Manchester City, is still going strong(ish), aged 40, with Fiorentina.
43. DR Congo
FIFA ranking: 46
You can’t say they haven’t earned their place. They finished a close second behind Senegal in their qualification group, then slugged it out with Nigeria in the African play-offs, winning on penalties… which earned them a slot in an intercontinental play-off final, against Jamaica. They got through that thanks to a 1-0, extra-time win, and will be at their first World Cup in 52 years.
44. Cape Verde
FIFA ranking: 69
The joy at qualifying for their first World Cup hasn’t come close to subsiding, but when it does, perhaps some reality will set in. Few of their players operate at the highest domestic level, and most of their squad will be spread around a collection of the world’s, shall we say, less fashionable leagues. Even being there is an astonishing achievement, so making it out of their group featuring Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia will be a miracle… but you never know.
GO DEEPER
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45. Uzbekistan
FIFA ranking: 50
This is a long-overdue World Cup debut for a football-mad nation. Uzbekistan’s success in youth internationals in recent years — including victories against England and Croatia (the latter on penalties) in Under-17 World Cups — hints at an emerging force. Their recently appointed manager, Fabio Cannavaro, certainly knows how to handle a World Cup.
46. Iraq
FIFA ranking: 57
Iraq’s qualification campaign was full of drama: they sacked Jesus Casas in March and replaced him with former Australia coach Graham Arnold, who took them close to automatic qualification. They only finished behind Saudi Arabia on goals scored in the final group stage, then beat the United Arab Emirates with a 107th-minute penalty in the Asian play-off, which granted them access to the intercontinental phase. Thanks to the situation in the Middle East, even getting to those play-offs in Mexico wasn’t a picnic, but get there they did, beating Bolivia in the final. An extraordinary journey.
47. Curacao
FIFA ranking: 82
Curacao only achieved country status 15 years ago, and became the smallest nation ever to qualify for the World Cup when they beat Jamaica in a winner-takes-all final-day decider. They’re the fourth debutant, after Jordan, Uzbekistan and Cape Verde, and they look the weakest of that quartet. If they even manage to pick up a point at the World Cup, that would be an achievement. If they win a game, or get through their group… well, stranger things have happened, but not many.
GO DEEPER
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48. Haiti
FIFA ranking: 83
There will be plenty of beneficiaries from the expanded tournament, but arguably just as fortunate are the CONCACAF nations traditionally shunted out by the three hosts. Haiti, whose only previous appearance was in 1974, were one of those countries, but they performed superbly to finish above recent qualifiers Honduras and Costa Rica. They surely won’t get further than the first round, but even this is an extraordinary achievement.
