Josh Inglis
• Betting Analyst
13+ years betting experience
Updated:
Mar 31, 2026 , 01:26 PM ET
• 4 min read
Getting a line even remotely close to +300 for Aaron Judge to go deep is a gift, and he’s at +285 tonight against the Mariners and SP Logan Gilbert, who allowed 20 home runs in 131 innings last season.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) waits for a pitch against the Seattle Mariners.
The HR article connected on a Kazuma Okamoto +520 homer in the ninth inning last night in Toronto, and we’re right back at it with two early looks this morning and another to come this afternoon. The MLB player props are still offering plenty of value.
I’m targeting a pair of +475 middle-of-the-order bats in strong matchups at +EV prices: Jake Burger and Brent Rooker. Plus, I’m adding the best home run hitter in baseball, Aaron Judge, at a great price
These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, March 31.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Jake Burger
+475
Brent Rooker
+475
Aaron Judge
+385
💲Today’s HR parlay
+9910
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Jake Burger (+475)
Conditions are ideal for power, with 17-mph winds blowing out to left-center and temperatures around 80 degrees — a strong setup for home runs.
Jake Burger gets a premium matchup against Zach Eflin, who is coming off back surgery and posted the second-worst HR/9 among starters with 60+ innings last season. Burger, hitting out of the cleanup spot, is 3-for-7 with a home run against Eflin in his career.
THE BAT projects a fair price around +375, making current numbers appealing.
There are multiple ways to attack this game, especially with the Texas Rangers yet to name a starter. Samuel Basallo at +550 or better also projects as +EV for the Baltimore Orioles.
Betting on the earliest game of the slate is also an easy decision for my MLB picks.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, RSN
Brent Rooker (+475)
I don’t usually put a lot of weight into batter vs. pitcher data given the small samples, but it’s hard to ignore that Brent Rooker has taken José Suárez deep three times in just five at-bats — especially with Rooker sitting at +475.
Rooker had a strong spring and may be off to a slow start, but the power is real. He has legitimate 40-HR upside, which puts him in a rare tier of hitters.
Suárez is more of a bullpen arm being stretched into a starting role because of Spencer Strider’s injury, which adds risk. The environment isn’t elite, but 80-degree weather in Atlanta with a total of 9.0 is still solid.
Fair value on this HR prop is closer to +400, and Rooker projects similarly to names like Ronald Acuña Jr., Shea Langeliers, and Austin Riley — all of whom are priced shorter.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Braves Vision, Gray TV, NBCSCA
Aaron Judge (+285)
THE BAT rarely shows value on top-tier bats for home run props, but close to +300 on Aaron Judge stands out as one of the best +EV spots on the board today. This is a hitter who’s often priced well below +200, but is sitting higher today against Logan Gilbert in Seattle.
It’s not often you get the top power hitter in baseball at this number. Judge at +285 against any pitcher is a price bettors should be willing to take. THE BAT projects a fair line closer to +260, and even a small edge is worth backing.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
2026 Transparency record
- HR picks: 1-2 SU, +3.2 units
Today’s HR parlay
Jake Burger
Bet Now
+9910
Brent Rooker
Aaron Judge
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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