Hate it or love it, the Toronto Raptors are consistently inconsistent.
They struggle against the league’s best but punish the teams below them.
Since the All-Star Break, here is their record and net rating against playoff-bound teams versus lottery-bound ones.
Playoff-seeded teams: 1-7 (-56)
Lottery teams: 7-1 (+124)
As you can see, it’s a complete 180 depending on where their opponent sits in the standings.
The Raptors are right on the play-in tournament line sitting one game ahead of Philadelphia in seventh.
Even against inferior opponents, the Raptors can’t afford to take their foot off the gas pedal.
Every win matters from here on out.
As heavy favourites against Sacramento tonight, there are two players on the roster who can and need to capitalize in a plus matchup.
Scottie Barnes assist ladder
Barnes 8+ assists, -125
Barnes 10+ assists, +200
Barnes 12+ assists, +540
Barnes 14+ assists, +1200
At the time of writing, Barnes’ status switched from in to questionable.
I write this section encouraging you to bet this ladder regardless of his health and let it void should he sit.
Barnes’ assist baseline is currently set at 7.5, the highest since Immanuel Quickley’s gone down.
Over these last five games, Barnes has averaged 12.2 assist per game and had a double-double in all of them.
The absence of IQ has thrusted Barnes into a primary facilitator role, more pronounced than any other point in the season.
Quickley had only missed three other games this year, so we have an insignificant sample size to draw from.
Barnes had 23 assists over those three games.
On top of his recent form, this specific matchup against Sacramento is a smash spot.
The Kings aren’t just tanking; they must lose games to drop back into one of the bottom three lottery spots.
Barnes is the very best at turning defence to offence and regularly punishes teams that do a poor job getting back in transition.
According to Cleaning The Glass, Sacramento owns the worst defensive rating over these past five games after Russell Westbrook was sidelined.
They’ve also allowed the highest frequency of transition plays to opponents.
30 of Barnes’ 61 assists over this stretch have come in transition.
The Raptors have a habit of piling it on the bottom-feeders; it’s a great opportunity for him to break his career-high of 15 dimes set just two games ago.
RJ Barrett scoring ladder
Barrett 20+ points, -160
Barrett 25+ points, +158
Barrett 30+ points, +350
One person’s loss is another person’s gain.
Barrett has answered the call with IQ sidelined, averaging a team-high 21.0 ppg.
I mentioned IQ’s good health above; Brandon Ingram has enjoyed similar fortune only missing four games all year.
Barrett was active for three of those, averaging 23.3 ppg.
After pouring in 24 points in a losing effort versus Detroit last night, he gets a great matchup against the Kings and their porous transition defence.
Betting on Barrett is akin to stacking a wide receiver and quarterback in fantasy football.
Of Barnes’ 61 assists, 20 of them have come off of Barrett field-goals.
He showed some questionable shot selection against the Pistons which might not be great for their team success but for betting purposes, you’re very happy watching him chuck at will.
His usage rate leads the team at 26.5 and should creep up even more with Ingram out.
He’s been particularly aggressive drawing fouls (6.4 FTA).
If his three-point shot finds him tonight, there’s a reasonable chance he has a season-high scoring night.
The Kings have allowed opponents to shoot a league-worst 43.7 percent from deep these past five games.
