Welcome back to Week 1 of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. You might be asking, “Isn’t it a bit early to be panicking?” You’d be right, mostly. There are a few stats that stabilize quickly. We’ll be looking at those to see if there are early warning signs for strugglers.
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
Kyle Manzardo got his first real chance as a full-time starter last year, and he didn’t disappoint. In 531 PA, he posted a .234/.313/.455 slash with 27 HR, a 25.4% K%, 9.0% BB%, and 113 wRC+. There was some hope that he could bring those AVG and OBP numbers up to go along with those strong power numbers. The early results have not been good.
In 17 PA, he has reached base 3 times and has 10 K. That’s a .176 OBP, 58.8% K%, and -9 wRC+. Is this an early indicator of a rough season ahead?
Manzardo’s O-Swing%, Contact%, and Swinging Strike% have all gone in negative directions.
Source: FanGraphs
However, as you can see, they mostly would’ve been blips on last season’s line graph.
Verdict: Patience, mostly. It’s difficult to give a different verdict so early in the season. A rule of thumb for SwStr% is to double it to get an expected K%. A 33% K% (his SwStr% is 16.5%) would be very concerning over a long stretch, but that could easily be corrected with so few PA. We should keep an eye on his Plate Discipline numbers, though. If they remain at these early-season levels, I would start to panic.
Josh Naylor, 1B, Seattle Mariners
Naylor has established himself as an above-average 1B, posting wRC+s of at least 118 for four straight seasons. He signed a 5 year, $92 million contract with Seattle this offseason. It has not started well.
In 18 PA he has a .000/.167/.000 slash and -47 WRC+. Should we be concerned?
His O-Swing% is up 10 points, and his Z-Contact% is down 8 points. His other Plate Discipline numbers track with the last few seasons. He’s chasing too much, but I wouldn’t be concerned about that this early.
However, a more concerning trend may be occurring.
Source: Baseball Savant
Despite his surprising SB numbers last year, Naylor is not known for his athleticism. Players can begin to show signs of age starting in their late 20s, and Naylor will turn 29 in a few months.
Verdict: Some Panic. Put this steady decline in Bat Speed on a very slow player (that doesn’t seem to take care of himself physically), and I become a bit concerned that Naylor may be in the early stages of physical decline. That’s probably not the case, but it makes me more uneasy than I would’ve expected so early.
Brent Rooker, OF/DH, Athletics
Brent Rooker had a late breakout with the Athletics at age 28 in 2023. From 2023-2025 in 1,839 PA he posted a .268/.343/.509 triple slash, 99 HR, 27.4% K%, 9.4% BB%, and 137 wRC+.
2026 has not been so friendly.
In 13 PA he has reached base once and struck out 8 times. Is he declining in his age 31 season?
He has an absurdly bad 80.0% O-Swing%, 39.3% Contact%, and 45.9% SwStr%. This is the definition of being “lost.”
Verdict: Patience, but monitor. Rooker’s Bat Speed remains unchanged and I refuse to put any stock in Plate Discipline numbers after 13 PA, even 13 horrible PA. Obviously, his Plate Discipline numbers can’t possibly remain so terrible (unless he’s gone blind in both eyes), but he may have taken a step back in this department. Keep an eye on them. This could change to Panic if they don’t drastically improve.
