Bill Guerin might not be the only GM in Minnesota Wild history who’s understood that superstar players are required to win. However, he is the only one who has taken that understanding and put it into practice.
Since the start of the offseason, Guerin did what it took to extend Kirill Kaprizov, despite the sticker shock of his contract. He also pushed Marco Rossi and three premium assets out the door to land Quinn Hughes. Both moves were expensive, but they paid off. With those moves and Matt Boldy’s emergence, the Wild have arguably three of the top 20 players in hockey on their squad.
And by all accounts, Guerin still isn’t done pursuing superstars. Insiders are linking Guerin to basically every potentially available Team USA player: Auston Matthews, Brady Tkachuk, or even Jack Hughes. The Wild kept their powder dry at the trade deadline, which would suggest that they’ll be ready to pursue those options if the opportunity knocks.
In a vacuum, any of those players would be a no-brainer to go all-in on. Matthews scored 27 goals in 60 games in arguably his worst NHL season. When healthy, Tkachuk represents 30 to 35 goals in the bank and plays a tough game down the middle. Jack Hughes is every bit as talented a skater and playmaker as his brother.
The Wild’s upside would dramatically rise with the acquisition of any of these players. But would that core be too cost-prohibitive to maintain?
Minnesota would immediately feel Matthews’ cap hit. His $13.25 million AAV is set to be the fourth-highest in the NHL next year, with two years remaining. Matthews signed a four-year contract with an eye on the rising salary cap, where he would almost certainly be able to command Kaprizov-type dollars.
Tkachuk’s cap hit is $8.12 million for the next two years, which is very easy to fit in the Wild’s structure. But in two seasons, Minnesota would also have to pony up for Tkachuk’s services, which would be extremely in-demand on the UFA market. As for Hughes, his $8 million cap hit for the next four years is a bargain, but also makes it not exactly a motivator for the New Jersey Devils to trade, unless Jack forces their hand.
With either Matthews or Tkachuk, the Wild could expect to be on the hook for $55 to 60 million in 2028-29 between Kaprizov, Hughes, Boldy, and [Superstar X]. Even under a $120 million cap, we’re talking about half the Wild’s assets poured into their top four players. And that doesn’t even count long-term commitments to Brock Faber ($8.5 million AAV through 2033) or Filip Gustavsson ($6.8 million AAV through 2031).
The immediate comparison that comes to mind, particularly since Matthews’ name is buzzing around this plan, is the Toronto Maple Leafs’ “Core 4” era. From the 2019-20 to 2023-24 seasons, the Leafs invested $40.5 million into Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. The total bumped up to around $46.7 million last season.
The Leafs were constantly filling out their roster on the cheap. The draw of playing for a contender and in Toronto helped them land players like Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi, Jason Spezza, and Mark Giordano on below-market deals. But the Leafs struggled to build a complete team around their superstar pieces, which would bite them in the playoffs whenever those superstars let them down.
Would that fate befall a Wild team that similarly goes all-in on superstars? Say what you want about the Edmonton Oilers, but they’ve shown you can go to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals with a top-heavy team that gets rounded out with cheap deals. It depends on how good that top-end is and how savvy a GM is at finding value.
Fortunately, this is something Guerin’s front office proved to be adept at during the worst of the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyout years. The Wild were able to make hay out of cheap deals to players like Ryan Hartman, Freddy Gaudreau, Jake Middleton, and Marcus Johansson. They turned expensive players like Kevin Fiala and Cam Talbot into core pieces like Faber, Danila Yurov, and Gustavsson.
Can they do that again? It’ll be tough, especially since a trade will wipe out another significant chunk of their prospect pool, and perhaps even youngsters like Yurov and Jesper Wallstedt. But the Wild have seen what life is like with no superstars, and the result has been no Stanley Cups and a mere handful of playoff series wins. Going on a Vegas Golden Knights-like rampage to amass superstar talent at the top might be a risk, but it’s one well worth taking.
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