MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, April 4.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers
Both starting pitchers had rough 2025 seasons. Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May posted a 4.96 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings. Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty had a 4.64 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings allowed. Both bullpens have also scuffled to begin the season, with the Cardinals 21st in bullpen ERA at 4.91, while the Tigers are 22nd at 4.95.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Tigers Over 7.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.3)
4:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals
The Dodgers exploded for 13 runs on Friday, but did have a few struggles at the plate leading up to that game, with just 23 runs in their first six games of the season. They should find success against Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin, who last season had a 5.70 ERA with a 5.64 fielding independent with 6.2 strikeouts and 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow had a 3.19 ERA last season with 10.6 strikeouts and just one home run allowed per nine innings last season.
Pick: Dodgers vs. Nationals Under 9.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.9)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski had a 3.55 ERA and 3.33 fielding independent last season. The lion’s share of his success came out of the bullpen, as his ERA jumped to 4.99 in his 12 starts and went to 2.15 in his 22 appearances out of the bullpen. Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz posted a 4.87 ERA last season with the Tampa Bay Rays, but his 4.37 fielding independent and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings point towards positivity this season. He faces a Pirates lineup that made significant improvements this offseason, but is still coming off a season in which they were last in scoring with 3.6 runs per game.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -115
(Greg’s Handicap Orioles -129)
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox
Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez was one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball last season, posting a 3.84 ERA with a 4.85 fielding independent, allowing 3.5 walks and getting just 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Red Sox starting pitcher Connelly Early has had a small sample size at the big league level with only five career starts, but has dazzled with a 2.19 ERA with 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He has yet to allow a home run in a regular-season game. Early is supported by a Red Sox bullpen that had the league’s second-best ERA last season at 3.41.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline -136 and Over 8 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap Red Sox -165 and Total 9.1)
7:10 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins
Rays starting pitcher Steven Matz is coming off a renaissance 2025 season in which he posted a 3.05 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 1.3 walks per nine innings allowed. Twins starting pitcher Mick Abel had a 6.23 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings allowed. In his first appearance of 2026, he allowed five runs in 3 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. Abel has to face a Rays lineup that last season ranked 14th in runs per game and entered this series averaging five runs per game to start this season.
Picks: Rays Moneyline +105 and Over 7.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap Rays -133 and Total 8.1)
Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat had a rough debut with the team, allowing seven runs in three innings against the Chicago White Sox. Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo had a bad 2025, posting a 4.15 ERA with a 5.09 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. Lugo does face a Brewers lineup that was fifth in the league in overall runs scored last season but was just 25th in home runs on a per at-bat basis. Lugo was more comfortable at home last season, posting a 3.61 ERA at home compared to 4.71 away from home, which may jump this season with the fences at Kauffman Stadium being moved in.
Picks: Royals Moneyline -118 and Over 8.5 Runs Game 2 of Double Header
(Greg’s Handicap Royals -152 and Total 9.2)
7:15 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona starting pitcher Michael Soroka had some bad fortune last season, posting a 4.52 ERA with a fielding independent of 4.23 with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder is coming off a miserable 2025 season, supplying a 5.30 ERA last season with 7.5 strikeouts and 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. He now has to face a Diamondbacks lineup that was fourth in the league in scoring a season ago, with nearly 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -105
(Greg’s Handicap Diamondbacks -118)
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi had a bit of a shaky first season with Cleveland in 2025, with a 4.30 ERA and 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. Cecconi is supported by a bullpen that last season ranked third in ERA at 3.44. Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga last season had a respectable 3.73 ERA, but a 4.86 fielding independent with 7.3 strikeouts and 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings, and much of the team’s bullpen from a season ago is gone.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline +125
(Greg’s Handicap Guardians +107)
