Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Rhett Lowder (CIN) @ TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.
Among all the explosive strikeout, high velocity, and massive stuff arms, sometimes the real value comes in those Toby types, who quietly travel six frames without fanfare. Think Noah Cameron or Merrill Kelly of years past, and Rhett Lowder could join that club this season. Last night’s 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches (W) against the Rangers certainly hints at that ascension, and I think you should be aware of it.
Lowder doesn’t seem too special on paper. He hurls 19″ ride sinkers at 92 mph from the right-side at low 31 degree arm angle (with a steeper HAVAA than you’d think at 0.7 HAVAA. Strange, I know), a kick-changeup that is nearly underwater (below the X-axis at 0.7″ drop) and a standard gyro slider at 84 mph. That doesn’t scream legit, does it?
However, Lowder’s best asset is his command. The slider is rarely wasted, the changeup goes where it is supposed to, and the sinker is deceptive enough that he routinely earns grounders and weak contact off the pitch. The four-seamer is generally saved as a surprise pitch upstairs (which doesn’t really work), and he plods through the game. This really doesn’t sound sustainable. I get that, and yet, Lowder did this during his 2024 time in the majors, and now he’ll get @ MIA, vs. SFG, and @ TBR in his next three starts. I’m not saying it’ll be the greatest, I’m simply suggesting it may be worth those matchups and seeing what we have after.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Clay Holmes (NYM) @ SFG (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
This was a game of Holmes going super sinker heavy with nearly two inches extra ride and getting all the outs. It’s rare to see such efficiency from The Adobe. I hope it sticks.
Bryce Elder (ATL) @ ARI (L) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 89 pitches.
Oh wow. Is this actually happening again?! It would be foolish to completely hand-wave it and ignore 3-4″ more drop and 1-2″ more sweep on the slider at just one tick lower, and his command of the pitch has been phenomenal. His fastballs are still an issue – 4/7 hits on all fastballs hit in play at 71% hard contact – but Elder’s new cutter may be the solution. He’s introduced it to LHB and returned three outs with an 82% strike rate. That may actually be enough: sinkers inside to RHB, cutters to LHB, sliders down. I’m more aware these days how introducing a new pitch throws batters off massively after they’ve been training with the Trajekt machine only to see something brand new on game day, which means Elder wouldn’t get away with this suprise cutter for long. It’s not out of line to try this against the Guardians on Friday and see where it goes with that new cutter, though it will remove him on his sinker and focus more on four-seamers, which may make it a trap play.
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) @ ATH (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 94 pitches.
That slider is wild. He gets under the ball instead of on top of it like a typical gyro, essentially tilting the wrist and holding onto the ball longer, which means it carries more armside run than it should, and it confounds batters plenty. Meanwhile. I wish I was digging his four-seamer a little more. He’s not quite nailing its locations and his super flat attack angle doesn’t seem to be as flat as we want it to be. That said, he’s obviously more comfortable than his last start and he’ll have a long leash throughout the year + the splitter will do more over time than just six thrown.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) vs SEA (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 86 pitches.
He can thank Adell for preserving that Win, bringing back three solo shots on the night, including one early for Jackie K. Even if that ptich went over the wall, this is an excellent outing, and the command was brilliant. Changeups were the best he’s had, earning 7/22 whiffs and laying low roughly 70% of the time, while the sinker and four-seamer found the edges incessantly. I wish the slider had a little more involvement and precision, but I kinda love its two-plane movement at 87 mph. If the sinker and four-seamer didn’t have such terrible shape (the sinker has sub 5″ of vert, but it’s not elite sink and it’s ride is atrocious), I’d be more inclined to chase him. For now, I see a great command outing after a terrible one, and a rough schedule ahead: @CIN, @NYY, TOR. It’s best to monitor the command and wait until after the gauntlet.
Shane Baz (BAL) @ PIT (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 98 pitches.
I gotta say, getting pulled with a Philly after throwing a 99.2 mph heater and inducing a flare that became a double is just wrong. What we’re seeing from Baz is exactly what we wanted: 90 mph cutters getting all the love to RHB, 86 mph curveballs with legit movement to LHB (and a few to RHB), 97+ mph four-seamers, and a drizzle of changeups that we’ll hope actually make a difference in the future. I do have a little worry about the dip in movement on his four-seamer – down 2″ of both vert and ride – though this is clearly a fantastic version of Baz even with the worse shape.
Chad Patrick (MIL) @ KCR (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.
One of my hesitations about Patrick is his inability to frequently complete six innings, and yet, sometimes it doesn’t matter. I also worry that the three-fastball approach (cutter, sinker, four-seamer) isn’t that great, but then again, isn’t that Woodruff? Chad isn’t at that level (sub 60% strikes on all three here and much LOB love here), and until he finds efficiency, I’m still tepid.
Lazaro Estrada (TOR) @ CHW (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 66 pitches.
He was opened for and tossed four no-hit frames before hitting his pitch count, and all I think is “yeah, the White Sox aren’t great.” Sure, he’s featuring 19/20″ of vert, though it’s from a high arm angle and at just 92+ mph, which both amplify vert. His slider is also incredibly blegh at 86 mph and a ton of lift that makes me think of it more as a cutter at a low velocity. In short, I don’t see it. Maybe the high vert and surprisingly flat 1.4 HAVAA is just that amazing at his high arm angle, but he sat lower with the pitch than I’d want, too. In a short setting against a poor offense. No thanks.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) @ LAA (L) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches.
He did it again. Well, six hits this time, so let’s not go too bonkers. I kid, this is pretty cool, especially seeing his four-seamer returns whiffs for the second straight game. The sinker was inside to RHB as well + he’s showcasing two different sweepers – one that’s more of a “Hand of God” around 6-10″ of vert, and another underwater at -1″ vert. In truth, the part that is getting me interested is his fastball performance. The sinker’s locations with -4″ drop from last year (not at 1″ vert = legit sink!) that churned eight outs on nine balls in play + the four-seamer still getting whiffs = something I’m more willing to buy in on. The cutter is also a good enough weapon, too, and better attack for LHB than the sweeper we saw last week. He’ll get a major RHB test against the Astros this weekend, and I’m in. Let’s do this.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) @ COL (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 99 pitches.
All I’ll say is that it’s fitting for Luzardo to do this on Easter weekend. Some of the best command you’ll see from Luzardo in this one, well deserving of a Gallows Pole. Just start the guy.
Randy Vásquez (SDP) @ BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 83 pitches.
This was the questionable matchup before Rockie Road and hosting the Mariners in Petco’s lovely April month for pitchers, and I’m sad to report that the fastball velocity has fallen down to 93/94 mph. He topped out under 95 mph and was consistent all game, save for a little dip at the end – a typical drop off once gassed. The command was stellar, though, and we’re rolling him out there. I may lower my optimism for the full year, though.
Steven Matz (TBR) @ MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
Mmmmm, that’s the good stuff. I wasn’t expecting Matz to return eight strikeouts, let alone have the green light for 97 pitches, but here we are. He was living the SWATCH life with sinkers up (think four-seamer, it’s fine) and changeups around the outside corner for, uh, 42% strikes, but it amplified the heater well enough to take down the Twins. Gotta love it. After we skip a start against the Yankees, @CHW + Reds Carpet follow. I’d be tempted to hold for those.
Michael Soroka (ARI) vs ATL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
The curveball wasn’t nearly as successful (1/24 whiffs is so not what we envisioned) and the cutter + changeup had to step in for a handful of whiffs to get Soroka through this one. It’s not the most convincing start, but he did have good pitch separation to LHB and the sinker is still effective to RHB. I’m fine dropping him for @PHI and vs. TOR next.
Chase Dollander (COL) vs PHI (L) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 71 pitches.
He’s in the rotation now that Quintana is hurt and look at this! In Coors! Gold Star worthy, honestly. His cutter is DISGUSTING as an 87 mph slider that has -5″ of extra sweep and returned 6/17 whiffs under his 99 mph four-seamer. Bonkers. Welp, I can’t buy into it because of Colorado, but maybe he becomes a good stream on the road…
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) @ WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 101 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. That slider is still a problem, sadly. Just 33% strikes and a wide range of movement is annoying to see. Just imagine how good he’d be with his “stabilizing” pitch actually working again.
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 103 pitches.
Another solid outing from Lugo and now he gets the White Sox and Tigers. Sure, I’m game. For now.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs CIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 80 pitches.
What did we get? Well, it was the slider! Not the cutter, no, that was 9% usage, but 41% sliders for 64% strikes and…18% CSW. Yes, that was good enough, apparently, this 86 mph average gyro slider with a 17″s ride sinker (hey, that’s better!). I think the Reds Carpet is a thing again this year. I’d stay away from Rocker.
Max Meyer (MIA) @ NYY (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 89 pitches.
Honestly, solid against the Yankees, and it would have been better if he was able to nail down the slider location a bit better (56% strikes), with more help from the changeup (42% strikes). With the tough one out of the way, he’ll stroll down the Reds Carpet (I’m mentioning that a lot today) and I’m circling that one.
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) vs BAL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 84 pitches.
Meh. I’m not seeing it. Do you really want to trust a guy who just went 35% splitters with three whiffs and both fastballs returning a combined 56% strikes?
Anthony Kay (CHW) vs TOR (L) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 76 pitches.
This was mostly RHB and his changeup returned 0% CSW on nine thrown, with four fouls, an out, and four balls. Weird. Anyway, his four-seamer command was terrible, but found outs, and the slider inside was still good. I’m still curious here and I’m down to wait for that one great outing before pulling the trigger. Could be soon with @KCR, TBR, and @ARI up next.
Connelly Early (BOS) vs SDP (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.
His velocity is down 1-2 ticks and he wasn’t spotting the ball well at all, but hot dang, he’s getting even more drop on the changeup, and it’s hard not to be optimistic moving forward. He’s not a poor control pitcher (62% strikes, FWIW). Should be much better in St. Louis.
Logan Henderson (MIL) @ KCR (ND) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 35 pitches.
He’s back! Oh, wait. For a double-header. And 35 pitches. Welp, good to see the four-seamer and changeup still work. We saw one curve at 81 mph – at least he’s trying something new? He opened for Brandon Sproat, who wasn’t a ton better than last week: 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 71 pitches. Sigh. He walked a batter in each of his first three innings but worked around it, then a solo shot + strikeout + three singles ended the day in the sixth. The good news? He’s at 97 mph with filthy stuff, and he’ll get the Nationals, Marlins, and Tigers up next. I’m not giving up just yet in my heart, but I’m totally fine dropping him and picking him up when it clicks. He’s really close, y’all. Seriously.
Ryan Weathers (NYY) vs MIA (ND) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.
Bleeeegh. Man, this has been a bust so far, eh? He cannot find a groove with his changeup (32% strikes) and the sweeper (50% strikes), while the four-seamer and sinker are absurd stuff pitches with high velocity and two-plane movement, but he needs those secondaries to put it all together. I’m willing to bet that Weathers will get there and it’s still a good schedule. Emotions were likely there in this revenge game, too.
Mick Abel (MIN) vs TBR (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 84 pitches.
He pitched in a snowstorm, which explains the massive drop in velocity (three ticks), which was steady throughout the game. You’re making excuses. Okay. Drop him, that’s fine. He’ll get the Tigers (I like it), then hosts Boston + @NYM. Not the best schedule, so if you want to wait a few weeks, sure. He’s going to be worth your time this year.
Landen Roupp (SFG) vs NYM (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.
He got the ball down with both the curve and changeup, but they somehow got to some of those curveballs and the sinker was missing too much, and he got Singled Out in the second and fifth. It does give me pause that Roupp’s sinker command is not locked in, but the change and curve are legit + the cutter is a good addition. I think I’m still in against the Orioles and Reds, but it’s close. Don’t feel like you need to.
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs STL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.
He was down to 91.7 mph on his four-seamer. Remember, we like Flaherty when he’s at 94 mph. This isn’t the guy you want him to be.
Luinder Avila (KCR) vs MIL (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 73 pitches.
This was as pot start for an ill Wacha and you can forget about him again.
Luis Morales (ATH) vs HOU (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 6 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 77 pitches.
Six walks. The dude is lost and needs to find his Morales compass.
Jake Irvin (WSN) vs LAD (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
Yuuuup. Looks about right for a start against the Dodgers.
Dustin May (STL) @ DET (L) – 3.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 79 pitches.
Just the second most disappointing appearance of the day (Sproat…Sigh). The command wasn’t great, even if the velocity was 96/97 mph as we want it to be. Definitely drop him now, though be ready to swoop him up again soon. BOS, CLE, @MIA are ahead, and I wonder if we’ll be wanting him for Miami.
Game of the Day
Chase Burns vs. Jack Leiter – DUUUUUUDE. 98 mph average fastballs.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
