Play Brightcove video
The boss of Ryanair has told said that as many as one in ten of its flights could be cancelled if the war in Iran continues, as ITV News Economics Editor Joel Hills reports
The chief executive of Ryanair says the airline will not be able to run its full summer schedule because of jet fuel shortages if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
In an interview with ITV News, chief executive Michael O’Leary said that if the war in Iran doesn’t end “by the end of April”, he expects European airlines to start cutting scheduled flights.
“The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 30 days. If it remains closed for 60 or 90 days, then we’re all facing an unknown scenario, and we are certainly looking at maybe having to cancel 5%–10% of flights through May, June and July,” he said.
O’Leary explained that airlines won’t be able to choose which routes to cancel – cuts will depend on which airports suffer fuel shortages.
He said he expects to have only a few days’ notice from jet fuel suppliers, making disruption hard to manage.
Despite that, he urged passengers to book summer holidays “as quickly as they can”.
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary speaks to ITV News’ Joel Hills
He insisted that most flights will operate and warned that delaying booking is more likely to mean paying higher prices as airfares rise.
According to data analytics firm Kpler, 18.8 million tonnes of jet fuel were shipped out of the Strait of Hormuz last year – a little over a fifth of total global seaborne exports.
The war in Iran means that supply has been cut off, and the market has since tightened further.
China – the world’s second-largest jet fuel producer – is restricting exports. South Korea, another key producer, has cut output as it struggles to source crude oil to refine.
More tankers are now bringing jet fuel from the US to Europe, but not on anything like the scale necessary to offset lost supply.
“Even if the war ends immediately, there’s a crunch looming,” said Michelle Bockmann, a maritime analyst with Windward.
“Important refineries in the Gulf, in Kuwait in particular, have been damaged, and it’s not clear how long it will take to get shipments of jet fuel up and running again. Airports in Europe are really exposed.”
The Puffin Pacific is one of the tankers bringing jet fuel from the US to Europe. Credit: Marinetraffic.com
If flights are cut due to fuel shortages, O’Leary said Ryanair would get passengers to their destination, even if it takes a few days.
“You won’t get compensation because it’s clearly beyond the airline’s control,” he explained. “But we will re-accommodate you, get you back, get you out – whatever it’s going to be.”
And if anyone is unlucky enough to have their flight cancelled, O’Leary said they should blame Trump rather than airlines.
“This has been a poorly judged attack on Iran. There doesn’t seem to be any exit plan at all,” he said.
The first British airline cancellations of the third Gulf war have already begun.
Skybus has ditched its London to Cornwall route two months earlier than planned because the price of jet fuel has doubled and bookings have slumped.
There may be more disruption to come.
