It promises to be an entertaining third day of clay-court tennis at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters as World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz starts his title defense against Argentina’s clay-court specialist. Who will advance to the next round?
ATP Monte Carlo Day 3 Predictions
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Matteo Berrettini
Head-to-head: Berrettini 4-1 Bautista Agut
Despite a straight-sets loss to Alexander Shevchenko in qualifying, Bautista Agut has earned a spot in the main draw as a lucky loser. He has never failed to reach the second round in Monte Carlo in all 11 previous appearances. But that record is now in jeopardy. Although some fundamentals of his game remain intact, he is well past his peak. Berrettini has the bigger weapons and hits the ball more cleanly. He’s got the higher ceiling right now and if the Italian shortens the points, he should be on his way to the second round.
Prediction: Berrettini in 2
Hubert Hurkacz vs Luciano Darderi
Head-to-head: first meeting
Darderi has put together some brilliant results on clay in recent seasons and is currently 8-3 on the surface in 2026. But he’s coming off a shocking semifinal defeat to Marco Trungelliti in Marrakech. That result ensures he will stay out of the top 20 at least for a week. He can change that, but he faces an uphill task. An opening match against Hubert Hurkacz is probably one of the toughest assignments, regardless of the Pole’s physical struggles. But Hurkacz looks out of form right as losses have piled up since the Australian Open.
Prediction: Darderi in 3
Corentin Moutet vs Alexandre Muller
Head-to-head: Mouter 3-2 Muller
This is a very interesting rivalry. Moutet and Muller first met in the final of an ITF tournament in 2017. Mouter won that one, and the 26-year-old lefty came out on top when they last played in Washington last year in a one-sided 6-0 6-1 victory. Muller’s retirement in the quarterfinal in Marrakech sparked some controversy. He traveled to Monte Carlo in under 24 hours to compete in qualifying and was successful in his bid to reach the main draw. That said, this is a matchup Moutet should thrive in. His variety can drag opponents out of rhythm.
Prediction: Moutet in 2
Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 3-0 Baez
Alcaraz enters the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters knowing that the No. 1 ranking could change hands after the tournament. The Spaniard sits just 200 points ahead of close rival Jannik Sinner in the live rankings as he starts his title defense. He arrives at the Principality full of energy, having last played at the Miami Open in March. Sebastian Baez is a huge threat on this surface, but he has a poor track record at this event. Not even a confidence-boosting win over Stan Wawrinka in the opening round (first-ever win in Monte Carlo) will change his fortunes in this encounter against Alcaraz, who is very much the man to beat on clay.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images
