DETROIT — After a month when virtually everything has gone wrong for the Detroit Red Wings, for once it all went right Thursday.
Alex DeBrincat became the Red Wings’ first 40-goal scorer since Marian Hossa in 2008-09. Dylan Larkin scored a hat trick to set a career high with 34 goals this season. Moritz Seider became the fourth defenseman in franchise history to record a 5-point game, propelling him to 60 on the season. All that, in a 6-3 win over the Philadelphia Flyers to keep the final embers of the Red Wings’ playoff hopes from burning out.
Make no mistake, Detroit’s path forward remains narrow. And for it to exist at all, the Red Wings desperately needed the 2 points they got Thursday more than they needed any single individual accomplishment. But one led to the other, and in a stretch of hockey that had left the Red Wings’ locker room in need of some relief, perhaps a night like this can provide it.
“That’s something where you kind of see that you don’t want to waste that season,” Seider said. “Obviously Alex scoring 40, and those are things that we don’t want to take for granted, and they should mean something. And I think if there’s a bigger picture, then yes, obviously everyone wants to get in the playoffs. But little things like that, they add up, and we should definitely celebrate a little bit. But we need 6 more points.”
They do need 6 more points, and even that may not be enough, as Detroit sits 3 points behind the Ottawa Senators with three games to play. They’re going to need some help after letting too many games get away recently.
But the milestones Thursday nonetheless all have some kind of implication for the Red Wings’ present and future, so it’s worth diving a little deeper on each of them.
1. DeBrincat became the 10th NHL player this season to reach 40 goals, finally crossing a threshold that had stood untouched in Detroit for more than 15 years.
His goal came in the first three minutes, taking a pass at the goal mouth and tucking it under the bar on the backhand.
The big number is nothing new for him, after he potted 41 in 2018-19 and 2021-22 and finished last season with 39, but still. It was an important counter to reset for the Red Wings, and an extremely worthy player to do it. DeBrincat has been the Red Wings’ most consistent forward this season, and not just on the scoresheet.
“He’s an unbelievable hockey player,” Larkin said. “Plays way bigger than his size, and his goal scoring’s as advertised. And when he gets it, he’s dangerous. He holds on to the puck, he drives our offense.”
There’s no question that trading for DeBrincat in 2023 was the best move general manager Steve Yzerman has made at the pro level (meaning, outside the draft) since taking over in 2019. The only downside to it: Yzerman signed DeBrincat to only a four-year deal when he made that trade. And after this season, that contract will have only one year remaining.
Soon the bill is going to come due — possibly as soon as this summer, when he first becomes eligible to sign an extension. Adrian Kempe’s eight-year deal at a $10.625 million average annual value in Los Angeles this season feels like it could end up being the floor for that extension, considering DeBrincat has scored more career goals and points in fewer games, is having a better platform year and is a year younger to boot.
Larkin is currently the highest-paid Red Wings player with an $8.7 million AAV, but the salary cap has exploded since that deal was signed, and now DeBrincat looks poised to blow past it. With how good he’s been, who could argue?
2. As impressive as DeBrincat’s 40-goal season is, he has competition for the best overall Red Wings season from Seider, whose big night Thursday has him 10 points clear of his own previous career high. For arguably the league’s best pure defender, those 60 points put him in lofty company. He was a legitimate Norris Trophy candidate already, but quietly he’s also climbed up to a tie for 10th in the league in points among defensemen, too.
“He’s a different player than Zach (Werenski) and (Quinn) Hughes and (Cale) Makar, but he’s just as important to our team,” Larkin said. “I can’t say enough good things about him and how tough he is, how hard he is. Those guys don’t grow on trees, and to get a guy like that (who) eats minutes and sacrifices his body, and then tonight he’s on the good side of a lot of plays because he can. He can make plays, and he has confidence to do it.”
Seider played 22 minutes Thursday, which might as well have been a day off for him. His previous four workloads were 29:33, 27:54, 28:04 and 28:47. He’s always out there, usually against the toughest competition, and that’s why it’s all the more remarkable he’s reached the statistical totals he has.
Offensive defensemen have dominated the award in recent years, but all year Seider has managed to put himself in that conversation anyway because of how good his all-around play was.
I had previously looked up the players who had finished top-five for the award in the last 10 years while scoring under 60 points, and Seider was right in line with them statistically, entering Thursday with an expected goals share of 56.73 percent, 2.37 expected goals against per 60 minutes and 0.71 points per game — numbers that will all improve after Thursday’s showing.
Norris top-5, under 60 points
PlayerYearNorris finishPoints (per game)xGF%xGA/60
2023
4
53 (.66)
56.58
2.28
2022
4
56 (.72)
63.18
1.78
2021
5
30 (.59)
57.71
1.91
2020
5
36 (.53)
55.11
2.31
2019
3
54 (.77)
53.49
2.34
2018
3
59 (.72)
51.43
2.36
2018
4
57 (.73)
52.8
2.4
2017
4
53 (.66)
48.14
2.45
2017
5
40 (.49)
59.79
1.78
2016
1
51 (.62)
55.57
1.98
Now that he has 60 points, too (0.76 per game), his case gets even better. He truly does it all.
Voters do tend to give extra weight to making the playoffs, and perhaps that hurts Seider if this ends the way it looks like it will for the Red Wings. But either way he’s had a special season that still merits strong consideration.
“The way he defends, what he means to our team, and the role, the matchups he gets every night,” Larkin said. “It’s 82 games, and he’s never missed a game in his career, and it’s been like that since the day he arrived.”
3. As for Larkin himself, his hat trick gave him 34 goals for the season, a career high. He’s looked much more like himself the last two games, as he had looked hampered since returning ahead of schedule from injury.
Larkin declined to talk about his health or the injury after the game, but it’s obvious he’s fighting through pain to try to help get his team back in. He takes a lot of scrutiny as the Red Wings’ captain, and it’s fair to point to his lack of five-on-five production this year, but I don’t think anyone can question his want or his will.
However it ends this season, the Red Wings do need to find a better answer on his left wing next year. Ideally, you’d bring in a legit top-six winger who can help on retrievals but still do real offensive damage, too. But as Larkin approaches 30, he’ll need more help around him to continue to make his maximum impact.
4. One milestone that didn’t happen Thursday, but could at any time now: Patrick Kane is just 1 point away from 1,400 for his career, after a goal and two assists against the Flyers. Only 23 players in league history have reached 1,400, and Kane has three games left this season to knock it out.
The bigger question: What comes after this season? Kane had some quiet stretches throughout the campaign, and his penalty against the Wild over the weekend was a backbreaker in that game. He’s 37 with nothing left to prove. But zoom out, and he has 23 points in his last 17 games and has been one of the few consistently noticeable Red Wings in the last five weeks. He clearly still has something in the tank.
Does he want to keep going in Detroit, after potentially three seasons outside the playoffs? And what do the Red Wings think of the situation?
Detroit can’t simply run it back with all the same players next year, that much is clear. But the line of Kane, DeBrincat and Andrew Copp has been the Red Wings’ most consistent for months. And with how shallow that free-agent market is, Kane’s 56 points in 64 games this season would be hard to replace for even close to the price he’s been playing for. It’s going to be a fascinating one to watch play out.
5. As for the Red Wings’ slim playoff hopes, Moneypuck.com has them at 5.8 percent as of late Thursday night.
The path: Detroit has to win out, hope the upstart New York Islanders (who peppered the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday in Pete DeBoer’s first game behind the bench) ride their new-coach bump to a win over Ottawa on Saturday, and then hope the tightening race makes the Senators a bit tight for one of their final two games against either New Jersey or Toronto.
Considering the Senators just pounded the Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning in their last three, it looks like an extreme long shot. But pressure does funny things to teams, and Ottawa’s goaltending has been chaotic all year. Linus Ullmark was excellent for them Thursday, but he has given up four or more goals twice in his last six. Maybe one of those strikes at the exact wrong time.
It all seems highly unlikely, but that’s the path.
And the real issue, of course, is that the Red Wings have once again allowed their fate to be decided by other teams, playing games they have no ability to influence.
