Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Kris Bubic (KCR) vs CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches.
I wasn’t sure if I should focus on Kris Bubic after he demolished the White Sox (as he should) on Friday night, but then again, when the southpaw returns such a beautiful line – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches (W) – I need to address if I believe it’ll stick at this level even against worse lineups.
What we saw wasn’t the Bubic we’re used to. He wasn’t a proper SWATCH with his changeup recording 0/11 whiffs and a poor 46% strike rate, but rather went BSB with 91 mph four-seamers (started at 91.3 mph, ended at 90.3 mph. Not the 92 mph average we’ve seen this year) and sliders + sweepers falling underneath. His ability to get chases and called strikes on breakers, while jamming LHB with sinkers, is great. The drop in velocity, wild misses on roughly 20% of his pitches, and the poor changeup command? Not so much.
It’s not enough for me to take him out of the lineup with his upcoming @DET, BAL, @ATH schedule, but it is enough to suggest he’s not quite the Bubic from last year yet. Keep that in mind if you were looking to buy in.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs PIT (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 100 pitches.
Yesssss. He took down the Pirates as he should, but look at those strikeouts! A Gallows Pole! A+ stuff grade in our Pitcher Cards. He’s dope and makes us feel dope. And yet, the sweeper was kinda messy against LHB. But that’s okay, everything else is just so good.
Keider Montero (DET) vs MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 80 pitches.
Oh hey, the extra four-seamer vert is back and his breakers are much better once again. It looks like he has two slide pieces – one at 80 mph as a sweeper and another as a proper slider at 85/86 with above average sweep – and he did a great job keeping them down-and-away to RHB. I question the command of his fastballs and the failure to keep his changeup down to LHB, not to mention his time likely coming to an end with Verlander set to return against KCR. If that gets pushed back, I still wouldn’t trust Keider.
Walker Buehler (SDP) vs COL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 68 pitches.
Ayyyy it worked! Buehler got the first Questionable Start approval from me in a long time and he took down Rockie Road as expected – refusing to allow a hit to RHB and fighting through the times against LHB. Good for him. Now he hosts Seattle and has to head into Coors and we obviously ignore this.
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) @ CHC (ND) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.
Well look at this. Enjoy the Gold Star, Carmen, and I apologize for the hand wave, but you had nine baserunners, and just two strikeouts with three whiffs. You know this has Koufax prints all over it, not to mention the heater’s poor velocity all game from 93-95, or the chaotic command that makes it hard to discern your attack plan. This ain’t it. But it’s the Nationals next. I’ll put it in Questionable, fine, but I don’t like it. He’ll have to face LHB and it’ll force the splitter to perform. Here? 15% CSW and 62% strikes. Ehhhh.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) @ NYM (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 68 pitches.
I was at this one and boy did Ginn make easy work of the Mets in his quick four-inning outing. Jack Perkins followed and had a stroll as well for a trio of frames, and I’m starting to realize that the Mets are not a strong offense in the slightest without Soto. As for Perkins, I’m glad he flirted with 95 mph across all four frames and he did a great job with his cutter and changeup to LHB. The slider and fastballs didn’t have the feel we’re used to, though, and I’d pass until we see more. If he looks solid at home against the Rangers, maybe we take a shot @TEA and in Arlington after…
Chad Patrick (MIL) vs WSN (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 50 pitches.
He followed Aaron Ashby’s three opening frames and this was fine. He’s throwing a little harder on his cutter, but getting far less movement than last year (with a wide range of movement overall) and I’m simply not impressed. I don’t see why we’d chase Patrick over a Toby who has the leash to go six frames.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) @ CIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 95 pitches.
I was so ready to get amped, until I noticed four walks and two strikeouts. How do you spell Jack Kochanowicz? With two Ks, we know. 19/21 outs in play is awfully kind from Koufax (are the Angels a better defense this year? No…right?) and it’s not the game for me to jump on board with @NYY and TOR next. Come back around next month.
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 93 pitches.
NOICE. This was a game of much better sinker command, though the curveball didn’t fall under the bats of LHB as we’ve seen in the past (0/11 curveball whiffs to LHB = blegh), but it cooked to RHB (4/15 whiffs) and I’m happy. Not so happy that I’m willing to hold for @CIN, LAD, and @PHI next, and if there are other great adds in the short term, I wouldn’t feel obligated to hold Roupp. It’s too bad, really, as I am encouraged for Roupp across the whole season. Not absurdly confident like Early and friends, but I like him.
Dustin May (STL) vs BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 75 pitches.
There we go. We saw a more even spread of offerings and a focus on his four-seamer + changeups (changeups?!) against LHB instead of sweepers + sinkers, and it worked well for him, even if the slowball was featured down the pipe and allowed a single + a hard lineout. There’s also a return of the curveball that may be something in time against LHB, but was not in a groove here. He’s still two-ticks up as he has been since the spring and with vs. CLE, @MIA, @PIT next, I’m so down in 15-teamers. He’s made to be an outs generator in St. Louis. But the Guardians are all LHB. True, he’s a bit worse against them. Okay fine, maybe we wait one more for those who need to be conservative.
Clay Holmes (NYM) vs ATH (L) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 81 pitches.
Ah yes, typical WHIP killing from The Adobe, amplified by a hamstring injury that took him out with a trainer mid-6th frame. It’s hard not to expect an IL stint and I wonder who will replace him. Tobias Myers came in right after for 36 pitches, and was cruising until a tough ninth frame with four hits and three runs. He’s not stretched out enough, Manaea doesn’t look hot, and maybe it’s Jonah Tong? Do you like Tong? Not really? Hopefully the cutter has improved and he can be the arm we’ve always wanted him to be. Not the worst spec-add if he’s confirmed for the spot. I may be overlooking someone else (maybe Christian Scott, who I like more than Tong, if the Mets are okay pushing him post-TJS).
Connelly Early (BOS) @ STL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.
That dang second inning cost him. 35 pitches with a string of hits and two walks pushed him too far, and his velocity fell from 93 mph to 91 mph by the final frame (though, it was his sinker bringing it down, which is traditionally slower than the four-seamer). I know, I love Early and the results haven’t been the excellence I’ve anticipated. Trust this will improve. The command hasn’t been quite there yet, but the stuff is still stellar from the left side, and even in laborious games like this, it’s one run. Five strikeouts. Just a little extra trouble than usual.
Davis Martin (CHW) @ KCR (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches.
Anotha one. Is this real? He’ll get the Rays next and I don’t blame you for taking that for a spin in a Vargas Rule scenario, where those three strikeouts look suspect, but 13 whiffs make it seem a little more acceptable. The changeup is hot, the slider is located well but not the best stuff pitch, and the new cutter is a stabilizer strike pitch that batters are prepared for. I think I’m down for that outing, especially with the upside that it works again and we hold for @ARI + LAA.
Chris Paddack (MIA) @ DET (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
It was 50 degrees and not ideal, but 92.7 mph? Seriously? Nick, that’s not what matters. Look at the new sweeper! True, it’s a genuinely new pitch for RHB and he dotted that bad boi down-and-away along his arm angle. The changeup feel was also cooking to LHB, and that’s ball game…with a fair amount of exhales after tossing so many hittable fastballs. The schedule isn’t grand and the floor is so low. Don’t do this.
Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) @ SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.
Oh snap, he did it again! Boy I really don’t believe this at all + Coors, but let me be happy for him, alright? Why don’t you like it? Because nothing is exceptional. Not even the 17-18″ of vert because of his high arm angle. At least he’s locating the cutter and splitter down-and-away to their respective batters…?
Steven Matz (TBR) vs NYY (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 88 pitches.
You should be adding Matz and this is a dope outing. Not because I think this start was absurdly legit, but because he gets the White Sox, Reds Carpet, and @CLE up next, and he’s displayed the ability to make it all work. He’s become a SWATCH with a new set of breakers and an improved sinker. He’s a Toby with a great schedule, in other words.
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs CLE (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 76 pitches.
Elder’s strength is taking down RHB with sinkers and sliders. He faced an LHB-heavy lineup against Cleveland and it wasn’t great. More at eleven. The new cutter does give him a better chance, though, and this wasn’t the disaster start we’ve seen so many times from Elder, for what it’s worth. Now with the Marlins, he’s still a viable option, though I’m not going to turn down great starts before then to secure it.
Jake Irvin (WSN) @ MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 100 pitches.
He was served a slew of LHB and did a good job of heading inside with four-seamers, but the cutter and curve were off. Let me rephrase, the cutter wasn’t great and the curveball was hilariously bad. Three for 17 strikes. 3/17. Your strike rate on your best pitch should never look like a date in March. I’m gonna pass on this one, even if his extension jump is looking to be real, featuring a gain of three clicks since last year at 7.4 feet.
Shane Baz (BAL) vs SFG (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 99 pitches.
Blegh. 51% strikes on his four-seamer is the major issue here, which led to batters connecting on cutters and curveballs frequently. So it goes, keep holding him.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) @ LAD (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 83 pitches.
He survived. I’m glad he’s ignoring the terrible four-seamer and going sinker/slider now with some changeups to LHB, but that sinker isn’t great, the slider is poorly spotted, and I can’t believe this line as good as it was. It feels inevitable that we’ll be signing a lullaby: Rocker, bye baby…
Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs HOU (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 88 pitches.
Alright. SO. This was great save for a terrible and laborious second frame, which can be explained by Imai’s horrific outing that forced Hancock to sit in the dugout for ages between the first and second. It led to some worse command that was solid otherwise and I’m still very much in.
Luis Gil (NYY) @ TBR (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
He’s back in the rotation and despite featuring a higher pitch count than anticipated, he failed to blow away my expectations. Don’t get hyped by the vert gain (typical +1.5″ vert increase in the Trop) and instead sigh at the low 54% four-seamer and 50% sinker strike rates. Wait. Oh. Right. Sinker. He throws one now. It’s a good idea for RHB, but clearly he doesn’t locate it. Like everything. I’m not into this.
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) @ SEA (ND) – 0.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 37 pitches.
Okay what happened here. It felt like his debut outing all over again and you’re likely rage-quitting. This is part of the transition process for Imai, who outlined the difficulty adjusting to the cold and the harder mound in Seattle. The good news? Not only is he at home next time out, but it’s Rockie Road. I’m holding. I get that you’re upset, but the concept that a pitcher struggles for one inning and suddenly he’s always that is just not correct. But the first game too! I understand. We all know he’s not this guy. We also know it’s the ideal start for Imai next time out. I’m going for it. Update: After writing this and before I published it, Imai was reported to have headed back to Houston early, which usually suggests an injury. Sigh.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna allow a three-run shot and a solo shot, while failing to hit a 60% strike rate once again with his slider. He was really close, though (59%!) and boy do I want to believe he’s almost there. It’s the glue that holds it all together. Whatareyagonnado.
Michael Soroka (ARI) @ PHI (W) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 93 pitches.
That first inning? Terrible. A single, walk, RBI double, and a three-run shot before recording an out. Now look back at the line. Wait, that’s 5.2 IP of 2 Hits, 1 walk, 10 Ks thereafter. It’s not fair at all to do that because Soroka did struggle against the top of the lineup, and yet, that’s kinda great, isn’t it? His curveball and changeup locked in while he got the four-seamer upstairs effectively. The new cutter? Nah, that went 0/5 strikes. A glitch in the matrix. With Soroka, I get the sense the Sneks have to keep him in the rotation after another impressive outing (it included a King Cole!), even with the terrible first frame.
Slade Cecconi (CLE) @ ATL (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 85 pitches.
Velocity is down a tick, the cutter was terrible, and the overall command was tough to watch. Maybe it clicks against the Cardinals – you never know with Cecconi – but I don’t see a favorable risk/reward balance in 12-teamers.
Patrick Corbin (TOR) vs MIN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.
It’s lovely to see you, Corbin. This could have been Giolito, but I guess he’s asking for more than the Jays want to give him, so y’all northerners better enjoy Corbs. And you know what, I dig that he’s all anti-fastball and cutter/slider/change these days, with just 25% heaters. I just wish he didn’t fail to locate on the edges. We’ll see how long he lasts in this heavily battered rotation and maybe there’ll be a time to stream. Maybe.
Chase Burns (CIN) vs LAA (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.
Well that’s no fun. Burns didn’t have his best command and the Angels weren’t missing on his four-seamer with just 2/49 whiffs and five hits (two HRs) on 12 heaters in play. No injury signs, just a bad night. We move on.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs ARI (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 86 pitches.
Oh dear. This wasn’t quite a Careful, Icarus as it happened in the fifth, but Luzardo was cruising through four frames until a horrific fifth with single, walk, single, K, single, single, K, double, THROW IN THE DANG TOWEL. This wasn’t purely luck – he wasn’t locating super well in the fifth – but generally a fella doesn’t have to endure such wrath from Koufax. Yes, Luzardo is known a bit for these bouts of volatility and there’s something to be said that he couldn’t make the adjustment during the inning to get out of it. And yet, I’m starting him against the Cubs next time out and very likely the follow-up repeat matchup, too.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) @ TOR (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 68 pitches.
Hey y’all. Please don’t start SWR, alright? Any thought that his velocity was down because of the cold Minnesota climate has been quelled by 91.9 mph in the great dome of Canada. You deserve better than this.
Game of the Day
Jack Leiter vs. Emmet Sheehan – Can Leiter keep up the whiffs against a strong offense? Will Sheehan hit 96 mph for the first time all year?
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
