Dallas FC to win vs. St. Louis City (+105)
We move to Texas with another strong moneyline probability and a high edge play from the Dimers model.
The data case: Dallas FC host St. Louis City on Saturday night with a 53.6% probability to win, a significant advantage over both our probability for a draw (22.4%) and a St. Louis upset (24.0%).
The supporting argument: Hosting is good news for Dallas, who are on a 9-match home win streak, the third-longest active streak in MLS, and head-to-head have shut out St. Louis in three home matches in their history.
St. Louis have mustered just one victory through six matches, scoring less than one goal per match, while Dallas scored 3+ goals in 4 of their 6 contests so far, led by MLS’s top scorer Petar Musa.
Aligning those trends with our 60% probability to the over and nearly 54% win probability for Dallas, and a 2-1 (10%) correct score looks like it could be in play as well.
MORE: Dallas vs. St. Louis MLS predictions
Colorado Rapids to win vs. Houston Dynamo (+135)
The data case: For our final play, we’re getting both the best odds and highest edge from the Dimers model, over an 11% advantage compared to the sportsbook odds in Colorado vs. Houston.
The supporting argument: Colorado enters this game off one of the wildest results of the year, a game in which Colorado led 2-0 before losing 3-2 to Toronto in a game in which three plays saw red cards.
The Dimers model predicts Colorado to bounce back with a 53.7% win probability over Houston, but at odds of +135, with a fair price at -115, giving us that big 11% edge. We also predict a number of goals with a 57% probability to the over of 2.5, which has hit in 4 straight for Colorado, including two matches in which they cleared that total on their own.
Houston have dropped back-to-back matches, including one in which they allowed 4+ goals to FC Dallas, and have been shut out twice this season.
Our model again points to a 2-1 victory (10%) as the most likely result in a victory for Colorado.
MORE: Colorado vs. Houston MLS predictions
MLS parlay at +741 odds
If you’re willing to invite a little more risk, consider playing these three picks as a parlay at +741 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, or whichever book gives you the best odds for this parlay.
BetWin %DraftKings OddsNew England to win59%-115Dallas to win54%+100Colorado to win54%+125
How Dimers finds the edge
By analyzing how a team performs in unique situations, against specific tactical setups, and even individual player performance levels, the Dimers algorithm identifies value where the sportsbooks see a toss-up, or even predict the opposite.
Looking for more Moneyline bets and correct score predictions? Download the Dimers App for predictions in a number of professional soccer leagues, including the 2026 World Cup, MLS, Premier League, La Liga and more.
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