It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about tonight’s matchup.
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First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
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Location: Truist Park, Atlanta
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TV: BravesVision
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Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
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Weather: 83° and mostly sunny, wind WNW at 5 mph
RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)
DH Drake Baldwin (L)
2B Ozzie Albies (S)
1B Matt Olson (R)
3B Austin Riley (R)
CF Mauricio Dubón (R)
LF Mike Yastrzemski (L)
C Jonah Heim (S)
SS Jorge Mateo (R)
Quick thoughts:
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This is a new lineup for Atlanta after Saturday morning’s news that Michael Harris II is going on the paternity list. It’s fun to think about how many options we had here for today’s lineup, as the trio of Jorge Mateo, Eli White, and Mauricio Dubón can all play centerfield, and both Mateo and Dubón can cover shortstop.
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That being said, giving Mike Yastrzemski the start against a left-hander on the mound at the expense of Eli White was not on my bingo card.
CF Steven Kwan (L)
LF Angel Martínez (S)
3B José Ramírez (S)
RF David Fry (R)
DH Chase DeLauter (L)
1B Rhys Hoskins (R)
2B Juan Brito (S)
C Austin Hedges (R)
SS Brayan Rocchio (S)
Quick thoughts:
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Only two Guardians have ten or more ABs against Martín Pérez in his career 0- José Ramírez is hitting .263 with a homer in 19 ABs and first baseman Rhys Hoskins is 1-10…but that one hit was a homer.
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In small sample sizes, Steven Kwan (one homer, 6 ABs) and David Fry (one homer, 4 ABs) have also held their own against Pérez.
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Quick snapshot (2025):
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3.54 ERA / 5.36 xERA / 4.24 FIP
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19.3 K% / 9.6 BB% / 2.6% HR rate
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Pitch mix (2025)
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vs RHH: 33% cutter, 30% changeup, 28% sinker, 6% curveball, 3% four-seamer
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vs LHH: 40% sinker, 25% changeup, 15% each of cutter & curveball, 5% four-seamer
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What’s different so far this year?
What to watch:
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It’s all about the velocity differences and locations here – the sinker and changeup have very similar movement profiles, with less than half an inch of IVB between the two and just over one inch of horizontal movement difference on average. Keeping hitters guessing at which one is on the black (and not over the heart of the plate) will be key here.
Quick snapshot:
The arsenal:
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Pitch 1 = four-seamer (93.1 mph, 33% usage)
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Pitch 2 = changeup (84.8 mph, 22% usage)
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Pitch 3 = sinker (92.3 mph, 16% usage)
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Pitch 4 = slider (86.7 mph, 13% usage)
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Pitch 5 = curveball (78.5 mph, 11% usage)
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Pitch 6 = cutter (90.0 mph, 5% usage)
vs RHH: Heaters early, changeups when ahead
43% four-seamer, 28% changeup, 14% curveball, 8% cutter, 4% slider, 3% sinker
vs LHH: sinker/slider ‘give me a groundball’ early, changeup/slider ‘give me a whiff’ when ahead
35% sinker, 28% slider, 17% four-seamer, 12% changeup, 8% curveball
Sequencing (2026):
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
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No Braves have ever seen Parker Messick in the majors, and it’s not an easy bat – the only pitch you can really eliminate is the cutter to lefties – but that being said, he does have preferences.
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Lefties need to try and focus on quality contact off the sinker/slider combo, attempting to elevate – he’ll let you hit it, just make it count
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Righties need to resist the urge to chase, as most of these secondaries are being thrown off the plate. The only pitch he throws in the zone with any consistency is the four-seam fastball, mostly middle and upper third. He aims the sinker low, and will occasionally hang one, but the locations here aren’t as crisp.
Likely available:
Used recently:
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Joel Payamps, Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer pitched last night, given that none of them needed even ten pitches, they should all be available if needed tonight. Osvldo Bido threw 14, so you’d like to stay away from him, but he can come back if needed.
Potential limitations:
Quick takeaway:
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Two of these arms had to come in after José Suarez got into trouble last night, and you can see the impact it’s had on the availability. Having both Osvaldo Bido and Joel Payamps down last night would have given Walt Weiss a lot more flexibility if Martín Pérez runs into trouble tonight.
Likely available:
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Just like Atlanta, Cleveland’s two best leverage arms in Cade Smith and Shawn Armstrong both haven’t pitched since Tuesday and are available tonight.
Used recently:
Potential limitations:
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Matt Festa (3-day pitch count) and Peyton Pallette (last night’s pitch count) should both be down today, in an ideal scenario.
Quick takeaway:
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Even if manager Stephen Vogt gives Kolby Allard the night off, he has two other well-rested lefties in Erik Sabrowski and TIm Herrin.
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What type of length can the Braves get from the veteran Pérez? An uneventful six-inning start would do wonders for a bullpen that doesn’t project to have a completely fresh long man available tonight.
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How long will it take the Braves to get comfortable against Parker Messick? Being at home and so having access to the Trajekt machine installed in the tunnel just behind Atlanta’s dugout could be handy.
Tonight’s the matchup that the Braves aren’t favored to win, mostly because of the talent discrepancy between the emerging prospect Messick and the aging veteran Pérez. But if Atlanta’s offense can figure out Messick like they did Slade Cecconi last night, it’s entirely possible to go ahead and clinch the series tonight.
