Both the US and the Iranian delegations came to Islamabad emboldened by their belief that theirs was the winning side in this war.
And they engaged knowing that, if they failed, there was the option to keep fighting – whatever the spiralling pain for their own people and a world reeling from the cost of this conflagration.
There was also what Dr Sanam Vakil of Chatham House describes as a “limited psychological understanding of the adversary and what compromises are needed for a real deal”.
Vance spoke of good news – “we’ve had a number of substantive negotiations” – and there was bad news: “We have not reached an agreement.”
And he made it clear that was “bad news for Iran much more than the United States of America”.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei criticised the US’s “excessive demands and unlawful requests” in a post on X.
And its parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Iran’s negotiating team, wrote that “the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations”.
Iran is indicating it’s ready to keep talking. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar urged all sides to uphold the fragile ceasefire and said they would continue their efforts to encourage dialogue – sentiments being echoed in other concerned capitals.
If history provides any lessons, the last time Iran reached a nuclear deal with the US and other world powers in 2015, it took 18 months of breakthroughs and breakdowns.
Trump has made it clear he doesn’t want to get bogged down in protracted negotiations. Vance previously warned that the US would not be receptive if Tehran tried to “play us”.
Pakistani journalist Kamran Yousef – in a legion of journalists who pulled all-nighters to provide non-stop coverage with very few details – declared that this round was one of “no breakthrough but no breakdown either”.
The world waits for a verdict.
