At The Athletic, we enjoy getting outside opinions.
Whether it is our annual NHL player polls, front office surveys or having subscribers chime in for arena or owner rankings, building stories around the wisdom of crowds can be a powerful tool, especially when the group you’re asking has specialized insight.
That’s certainly the case today, as we have spent the past few weeks canvassing many of the top player agents in hockey for their thoughts on key big-picture questions from around the league. In all, The Athletic polled more than 20 agents, who combine to represent hundreds of NHL player contracts worth billions of dollars, on nine key questions facing the league and its future.
Agents were granted anonymity to encourage honest and candid answers.
Only seven teams received votes here, and unsurprisingly, most were cast for some of the most successful franchises on the ice.
The Tampa Bay Lightning, in particular, were a popular choice, with many praising the way GM Julien BriseBois conducts business. Tampa Bay may be a cutthroat, top competitor for talent, but agents said they are always fair, honest and logical to deal with from their perspective. Players want to go there, and their representatives are happy to make it happen.
“Top to bottom, Tampa Bay,” one agent said quickly. “There’s no gray area. Everything Julien BriseBois says, he does. No one’s ever asking why. Everyone just knows what to do; they know their roles, and they get it done.”
Other teams received similar praise, including the two-time defending champion Florida Panthers and the on-the-rise Minnesota Wild.
On Florida: “They take any possible excuse off the players’ table. They travel well, they stay overnight usually when the flight is above two hours to try to get guys in a proper sleep rhythm. They have the new facility and training center, which is amazing. It’s a player-friendly environment. Everybody knows their job and people don’t step on other people’s toes.”
On Minnesota and GM Bill Guerin: “I know every team has to make the hard decisions, but you can’t question Billy’s track record now and what he’s been able to accomplish and get things done. I think now it really comes down to whether or not this group can win.”
Outside of teams such as the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars that have been perennial contenders of late, the up-and-coming Montreal Canadians earned a vote for their efficient rebuild and the Los Angeles Kings received praise for their work in player development, among other under-the-radar areas.
On the Canadiens: “They have it in a place that has sustainability. This is more probably (president Jeff) Gorton than (GM Kent) Hughes, but they’ve had the owner in line with the bigger picture since Day 1. I think that’s critical now for success.”
On the Kings: “The management do a very good job of taking care of their players, communicating to their players, and I think throughout the minor leagues, they do a very good job of running a similar system and working guys in.”
The last-place Vancouver Canucks were a frequent target here after an absolutely awful season, with agents criticizing the franchise’s lack of direction in particular.
The New York Rangers, who have also crashed into their conference’s basement this season, received similar complaints.
On the Canucks: “They’re a mess,” one agent said, simply. “I don’t know what their plan is,” groused another.
“They really don’t have the infrastructure that the players need to remove excuses,” added a third agent. “It just seems there’s a lot of soap opera stuff going on around there. I just think management needs to do a better job of keeping things in-house.”
On the Rangers: “Deep down, they forget everybody’s a human being. They’re too forceful, and I think everything can be worked out one way or the other.”
Other teams received votes for a variety of reasons, including the Columbus Blue Jackets and Nashville Predators both getting multiple mentions, largely over spending issues and disorganization.
On the Blue Jackets, who received criticism for issues related to travel arrangements: “It has nothing to do with the location. It has to do with people running it.”
On the Predators, who are currently searching for a new GM with Barry Trotz stepping down: “Little bit chaotic this year. Great people, really nice people, but maybe miscast and I think there’s some budgetary concerns there that the players feel.”
On the Toronto Maple Leafs: “They’ve mismanaged a lot of things, and in order to do something now, it’s going to have to be very bold. And I’m talking trade a big guy.”
Answers ended up being a bit all over the map, but again, it was the Lightning and other teams at the top of the standings that largely received votes for how they methodically and rationally handle things and treat their players.
The surprisingly successful Pittsburgh Penguins earned some praise here, too, with agents pointing to fledgling assistant GM Jason Spezza as a new bright light in their front office.
“They communicate to the players what they’re looking for,” one agent said of the Penguins. “They communicate with the agents what they are doing. And that sets them up for success.”
On the Lightning: “The easiest doesn’t mean pushovers. But I’d say the easiest is Tampa because everything’s clear. Everything’s straightforward and there’s no gray area with them, so I find that to be the easiest.”
On the Stars: “There’s a respect level with (GM) Jim Nill that you just automatically have, so you know you don’t have to start high and barter. You kinda get right to the final numbers faster because he’s more fair and doesn’t like wasting time going through the process.”
On the Kings GM: “Kenny Holland is a pleasure.”
But one agent said the teams are only easy to deal with if you have someone they want. Otherwise, that’s not usually the case.
“The (teams are) all magical when they’re pursuing one of your players and they want to recruit them to the organization. They’re all easy.”
For the second year in a row, the Anaheim Ducks were a popular choice, with agents pointing to their no-nonsense, tough negotiating tactics.
The Canucks, Carolina Hurricanes and Winnipeg Jets also received some gripes.
On the Ducks and GM Pat Verbeek: “Anaheim drives the hardest bargains, but they need to be careful because they can also affect the relationship long-term with the players. And hopefully they realize that.”
On the Hurricanes: “(Owner) Tom Dundon’s a pain in the ass” and “the owner’s in charge” from two different agents.
On the Jets: “Winnipeg’s hard, but they’re fair, to be honest with you. But they’re tough to deal with. Like back and forth, and very tough to deal with, but I respect them and I respect the hell out of Chevy. Winnipeg holds their ground.”
On the Canucks: “No alignment with what’s happening in the organization. It just can’t get going anywhere. Just a discombobulation. Good people, nice guys, but it’s just not working. So it makes it difficult for you to manage to bring a free agent there, hypothetically.”
“Vancouver’s hard because they have no plan. How do you sell players on an organization where you can’t get a grasp of what they’re actually trying to do?”
On Anaheim: “When I start negotiating a contract with Anaheim, I tell my (partner), ‘You take the first 10 calls with (assistant GM) Jeff Solomon because I don’t want to waste my time.’ Then when it gets to the end, I get involved because otherwise we’re all wasting our f—ing time. They’ll fight like tooth and nail for like 10 grand at the end of a deal. If you have a player at a million (point) one and you want it a million (point) 15, it’s going to be a f—ing grind. Everything’s a grind.”
Shockingly, even the sometimes surly group of NHL agents gave a modest thumbs-up to the new CBA, with more than half saying players made out decently well in the deal.
Those who disagreed with that notion, however, pointed to the clawbacks the new deal had in the areas of signing bonuses, contract structures and term length that will hurt their ability to get better contracts.
“They got enough,” said one agent satisfied with the deal, which carries the league to 2030. “There’s tweaks to it. There were clawbacks that were able to be made. The system’s working. It’s not perfect, but it’s working for both sides. The owners have never made more money. The players have never made more money. I don’t see how anyone can complain about where we’re at right now on either side.”
On the NHL going to an 84-game season next year: “The schedule’s too long, the contract length was reduced. In my opinion, I think (one mistake was) giving up contract length and especially this (expanded) schedule, I’m getting so many injuries this year.”
On wanting more playoff games instead of adding to the season: “Why aren’t there more playoff teams in this system? Playoff teams bring revenue. Isn’t it one of the simplest adds? We’re at 32 and allegedly going to 34 teams, and we’ve had 16 playoff teams per year since the ’80s. Think about that. It’s ludicrous.”
One area several agents felt there should have been more movement on was paying entry-level players more when they come into the league.
“It pisses me off that we have such good young players coming into the game and basically the entry-level cap has been the same for 15-plus years. It’s ridiculous. Marginal increases, not even inflationary.”
Only one agent of all those surveyed gave an unqualified yes here. Many others teed off on NHL disciplinarian George Parros in the wake of a five-game suspension to Radko Gudas after he ended Auston Matthews’ season on a knee-on-knee play last month.
“It’s not stopping players from doing this stupid s—, those kinds of suspensions (that Gudas got),” said one agent (who does not represent Matthews). “So is it working? No, because you’re still having these issues.”
On overall consistency: “There isn’t enough consistency in what we could believe could be a suspendable offense. Certain things happen, and you can’t say that’s automatically a two-game because if someone else does it, then it’s not. I don’t feel there’s complete consistency on their rulings.”
“Lack of consistency. One guy will get $2,500 for a slash and the next guy gets three games. Let’s just hold everyone to the same standard.”
“I would like to see the system be more mechanical and unbiased in its approach: The star players, many times, are viewed with a different, more lenient perspective.”
On how suspensions are decided: “I think the suspension should be on the act, not just the outcome. So just because it’s Auston Matthews and it ended his season, Gudas gets a big suspension. But who’s that kid in Calgary that just got hit from behind by (A.J.) Greer? That almost made me sick to my stomach. And he got what, two games? What if he broke his neck? If that kid broke his neck, and thank God he didn’t, does he get two games or whatever he got?”
On potential changes: “We need an independent group, jointly selected by the league and Players Association, completely independent of the league and Gary Bettman, to handle supplementary discipline.”
Hughes vs. Makar: Who will make more and how much will they get?
Let’s just say it’s safe to say that the highest-paid defenseman isn’t going to be making $11.5 million for much longer.
According to the agents we surveyed, both Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar are going to reset the market for top blueliners in a big way, especially with the salary cap set to hit $104 million next season.
“It depends on term and it depends on if they go to marketplace,” one agent explained. “If Makar’s going to stay in Colorado, he’s going to make less than he would by not staying. If he put himself out to market, there would be a team that would give him $20 million. If Hughes goes to open market, he could get $18-20 million. But it really depends on where. Do you want to make $20 million on a losing team or do you want to make $15 million on Minnesota, who always makes the playoffs and has a shot?”
“I can see them signing $15 million (a season) on three- or four-year deals,” added another agent. “We’ve taken that strategy. Much different defenseman, but (redacted), we had an eight-year deal on the table and took a shorter-term deal, only ate up two years of UFA, because we want to get back at the table after this guy’s got another 120 NHL games played because of where the cap is going.”
On whether the culture of contracts will change with a higher cap: “The question becomes, are GMs going to get used to the new normal and just allow for these guys to make $16 to $20 million or is the culture of hockey going to say you can’t ask for that much because you’re being selfish? I think people need to embrace the new culture that the economics have changed and general managers get comfortable in that, I think these guys should get closer to that $20 million.”
On setting a new bar for all defensemen: “They better be dead set on resetting the market. Why isn’t Quinn the Kaprizov (number of $17 million) and above? He should be setting that standard because defensemen right now are still underpaid relative to the top forwards in the game. And Makar, no reason he should be any different. In fact, in my view, he should be above Hughes. … Listen, when Kaprizov does what he does, these two better be doing it, too.”
On how it relates to athletes in other sports: “These guys are generational players that should push the envelope like the basketball players, football players and baseball players do.”
Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard should be helping reset the market for how much a player can get on their second contracts, agents said. (David Gonzales / Imagn Images)
How much will Celebrini and Bedard get on their next deals? (How will it reshape the market?)
There was a clear divide in the answers, with agents putting the young San Jose Sharks star in a much different tier than Connor Bedard.
Both, however, should be helping reset the market for how much a player can get on their second contracts, especially if they go short-term and then re-up again a few years down the line.
On Macklin Celebrini: “He’s going to get a monster deal, and they’re going to have to pay him. What Celebrini is doing in San Jose is incredible. It’s been a slow burn with the second contracts being so big. This is going to take them to another level, which will reshape the way teams get squeezed with their high-end guys.”
“Why shouldn’t Celebrini make like 20 million bucks a year? I mean, it’s a lot, but look at that kid. I guess my point with Celebrini is I know it’s not apples to apples because Kaprizov could have become UFA, but if you’re him, why wouldn’t I say, Kaprizov’s getting this, why shouldn’t I make more than Kaprizov?”
“It’s going to be in the $10 to $17 (million) range, depending on the number of years he’s willing to forgo. If he’s going to go very short-term, it’ll be $10 to $12 (million). If he’s going to give up term, it’ll be in the $12 to $15 (million). If he really wants to push, it could be $17 (million).”
On the notion of going short-term to take advantage of a rising cap and get more on a third contract: “I think they’re going to do what Matthews did and keep hitting doubles and triples and not going for the grand slam because the grand slam will actually be in total less than the doubles and triples at the end of the day.”
It’s hard to get a group of agents to agree that one of the most historically lucrative parts of their business is dying, but even they can’t deny that NHL free agency is about to bottom out this summer.
What will replace it was a matter of debate, but some agents are reading the tea leaves and arguing it’s about star players’ ability to control their destiny before they even become UFAs.
“Free agency’s going to die because there’s just going to be more trades beforehand,” one agent explained. “The Matthew Tkachuk deal changed the landscape where free agency really begins a year or two before. Like, for Brady Tkachuk or Auston Matthews, they’re going to look at what Quinn Hughes did and teams are going to look at what Vancouver did, and teams are going to want to get something for these guys ahead of time and know ahead of time. You’re not going to have the (Mitch) Marner situation where you’re walking a guy right to marketplace anymore.”
On where there might still be big money: “I could see a (Mason) Marchment getting overpaid, but he’s not going to get six or seven years. He could probably get three or four at a big number — a higher number than he deserves. I could see maybe a (Jamie) Oleksiak in a similar situation. If guys are willing to go short term, they’ll get money.”
How free agency could be revived in the future: “You’re going to see players opting for shorter-term deals like McDavid, although McDavid did it for other reasons. You’ll see players opting for two- and three-year deals versus eight-year deals with the expectation the cap is going to keep jumping. So you’re going to see a pause in the free-agent market until the eight-year deals run through the system. And more younger players opt for shorter deals to time themselves to come up to UFA.”
On July 1 itself, as an entertainment product: “I don’t know what TSN and SportsCenter are gonna do for 38 hours.”
By 2028, the NHL’s salary cap could be approaching $125 million, which means the maximum AAV on a player’s contract would be nearly $25 million.
With several big names coming up between now and then, the vast majority of agents believe it’ll be Connor McDavid who sets that new ceiling after taking a steeply discounted two-year extension with the Oilers this season.
On McDavid: “McDavid will get whatever he wants. I think he’s going to be $20 (million), and I don’t think San Jose is going to give Celebrini that yet. But it wouldn’t surprise me. He’s that good.”
On McDavid, with destinations: “McDavid’s new contract with the Leafs (or Rangers).”
On choosing Kaprizov to remain the highest at $17 million: “Obviously that contract is going to bring guys beneath that higher, but if you want yourself surrounded with good guys and to win Cups, you may need to leave a little bit on the table.”
On Makar: “McDavid’s not in it for the money. He’s going to pick the right spot. Makar may be the guy. Colorado does a nice job of getting those numbers right, but they may have to pony up for him now. Whoever is the highest paid is going to have that little bit of selfishness in them, though, just like Kaprizov did. He just wanted to be the highest-paid player ever and held a gun to Billy’s head.”
This question was one of the few that really stumped many agents. Nearly half pointed to deputy commissioner Bill Daly as the option that makes the most sense, with some praising his hard work as Gary Bettman’s right-hand man the past 21 years.
Others are skeptical that a transition is coming soon, even as Bettman nears his 74th birthday.
“I think Gary wants to be commissioner for life,” said one agent.
“I mean, you’re going to have to wheel (Bettman) out. From what I’ve seen, I don’t see him stepping aside anytime soon,” added another. “Obviously, Bill has been there a while. He knows everybody, he knows the owners, he knows the business. He has the same relationships that Gary has. He’s learned a few tricks at Gary’s side.”
“He’s really capable, he’s smart and I think he’s basically a genius,” a third agent said of Daly. “I’ve worked with him, and I think it would give the league some continuity. I think maybe he would be commissioner, but not as long as Gary, and then at that point he would probably groom someone else that would have some significant corporate/new school environment to bring something fresh to the league.”
The only four other names various agents provided were one vote apiece for NHL executive vice president Kim Davis, NBA deputy commissioner Mark Tatum, Panthers GM Bill Zito and NHLPA assistant executive director Ron Hainsey.
On Zito: “He’s such a brilliant guy. And now with the success he’s had, three trips to the finals, two Stanley Cups, next year, even with the year they’ve had, they’re going to be one of the favorites because of the way they’ve built this thing. Billy, I can see, as a next step for him, saying, ‘Yeah, I want to run the league.’ And trust me, he could.”
But there was additional support for finding an entirely new voice to run the league.
“They should hire a search committee and look for people throughout the sports industry and C-suite offices related to the sports industry and identify a young, dynamic, creative visionary to take the league to the next level,” one top agent said of Bettman’s replacement. “There are no good internal candidates.”
“With all due respect to Mr. Daly, who is a good man and everything else, I would go outside the sport and outside the box,” said another. “Someone who has experience in another sport or industry that’s applicable. Someone who can look at our sport from 30,000 feet and really know how to take it to another level. Grow the revenues. Grow the game. Grow it with the current world we live in, with technology and everything else.”
Some agents, however, were frustrated by the question, given that it’ll likely be a new adversary they’ll have to deal with in negotiations.
“I’m not even wasting any time thinking about it because it’ll be who Bettman wants it to be,” one said.
