KALAMAZOO, Mich. — Your week got off to a stormy start with multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings Monday night and early this morning.
Unfortunately, we’re about to get stormier with a credible risk of damaging wind gusts across West Michigan later this evening and into the early hours of Wednesday morning.
The Weather Alert Network team is declaring a Weather Alert Day for a damaging wind gust threat, the prospect of large hail, and a potential tornado or two.
Specifically, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded our risk of 60-70 mph wind gusts to 30% in their most recent update. This is a major upgrade as prior risks sat at 15%.
Many of you experienced hail last night. A risk of even larger chunks of hail is on the table tonight with potential hail sizes of 1″ to 2″ in diameter.
A tornado cannot be ignored, either, in a window from 8 or 9 p.m. through 2 a.m. or 3 a.m. Wednesday morning.
A north-south line of storms will likely form off of discrete cells in Wisconsin and Illinois, and that kind of formation tends to suggest damaging winds as the primary storm mode.
However, within this line there could be a quick spin-up or two. The specific risk of a tornado for nearly all of West Michigan is 5%.
Our Hour by Hour model pinpoints strong to severe storms at the lakeshore by 11 p.m.
Hour by Hour first brings a line of potential severe storms to our Lake Shore at 11 p.m. Tuesday night. The north-south orientation is a leading indicator that these storms will be capable of powerful wind gusts. If storm heights reach the freezing level, around 11,000′, they will likely contain hail. (Meteorologist Jeff Porter/WWMT)
We will be watching Live Doppler Radar all day long, because storms could form as soon as 9 p.m. over Lake Michigan and then quickly spread eastward.
A Flood Watch was expanded to include nearly all of West Michigan from 8 p.m. this evening through 2 a.m. Friday morning. An additional 2-inches to 4-inches of rain are possible due to several rounds of storms and possible severe weather. If you live in a low-lying, normally flood prone area or along the Portage river in Vicksburg or the Muskegon river at Bridgeton, please stay on guard. (Meteorologist Jeff Porter/WWMT)
Flood Watches were just expanded to cover nearly all of West Michigan from tonight through early Friday morning. The Watches say another two to four inches of rain area possible on already water-logged soil.
Remember, Flood Warnings already exist along the Portage river at Vicksburg and the Muskegon river at Bridgeton in Newaygo county.
Storm motion will be rapid tonight, somewhere around 40-50 mph, and their projected position is along US 131 and in Kalamazoo county at midnight tonight. (Meteorologist Jeff Porter/WWMT)
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