Chris Mannix’s NBA MVP Ballot: The Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokić Debate

Here’s the thing about this year’s MVP vote: There is no wrong answer here. You like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? Plenty of statistical evidence to support it. Victor Wembanyama? A vote for an inimitable defender whose offense is catching up quickly is a fair one. Nikola Jokić? The three-time MVP is putting up absurd numbers that best the ones he put up during any of his MVP seasons. Jaylen Brown, Luka Dončić, Cade Cunningham? It’s easy to make arguments for all of them. 

Usually by this point the MVP has been whittled down to a couple of candidates. Jokić over Shai. Shai over Jokić. Since 2009, only once—the ’22–23 race between Jokić, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo—has more than two players collected double-digit first-place votes. This season’s ballot has six players who can make strong arguments that they deserve one. 

So, without further ado—and without an official ballot, as the NBA, still sorting through eligibility grievances, has yet to send one—here is who I will be voting for. 

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City

Before we dive into the specifics of why Gilgeous-Alexander earned my vote—which for the record is the third straight year I’ve ranked SGA atop my ballot—here is a broad, 10,000-foot reasoning: He has been the most consistently brilliant player since the start of the season. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged at least 30 points in every full month he’s played. In those months he has shot at least 52% from the floor. He’s been operating at a high-assist (career-best 6.6 per game) and low-turnover (2.2, fewest since his second season) rate, rejecting the championship hangover like basketball’s version of a greasy breakfast, leading Oklahoma City to an 18–1 start before Jalen Williams played a minute. 

And those games matter. Wembanyama recently suggested that late-season games matter more than the early ones do. Pfft. They all matter. If Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t power Oklahoma City to its hot start, it might have finished the season looking up at San Antonio in the standings. OKC went 35–4 in games Gilgeous-Alexander played and Williams didn’t, with Gilgeous-Alexander averaging 32 points in his All-NBA backcourt mate’s absence. On the season, only two teams (Memphis and Indiana) had more games lost due to injury than the Thunder.  

Last month, Thunder coach Mark Daigneault insisted to me that Gilgeous-Alexander is better than he was last season. The numbers support that. Some of his traditional stats (scoring, rebounds, steals) ticked down slightly from last season. But his efficiency numbers (field goal percentage, three-point percentage, effective field goal percentage) are up. He led the NBA in win shares. He led the NBA in clutch time points, clutch plus/minus and most buckets in the clutch. He’s the MVP. Again. 

2. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio

Let’s start with the argument against Wembanyama, which really boils down to statistical output. A calf injury cost him 12 games early in the season and the Spurs, naturally, were very cautious with him when he came back. He crossed the 65-game threshold—that NBA Cup final counts as an appearance, for you basketball-reference heads—but averaged 29.2 minutes per game. No MVP has ever averaged fewer than 30. He was 103rd in total minutes played, sandwiched between Draymond Green and Russell Westbrook, significantly fewer than his competition. 

That said … yeesh. Wembanyama averaged 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and an NBA-leading 3.1 blocks this season. Stretched out to per-36 they jump to 30.1/14.2/3.8. He is a Swiss Army knife in San Antonio’s offense, operating from every spot on the floor. He’s completely blown up the defensive strategy of going small against him, effortlessly dissecting defenses from the post. The Spurs generated 12.3 corner threes this season, the most in NBA history, many of which are created from Wembanyama spacing or rolling to the rim in the half court or going full speed in transition as the most terrifying 7′ 4″ rim runner ever seen. 

Defensively, Wembanyama is a menace. The Spurs have a defensive rating of 103.2 with Wembanyama in the game. It’s 113.4 without him, the largest differential in the NBA. That Wembanyama isn’t averaging six blocks per game is a product of teams all but abandoning paint attempts when he is in the game. Seriously—one assistant coach told me recently at a pre-San Antonio film session the team was told when Wembanyama is in the game, don’t even try. Spurs officials note that Wembanyama’s defense is still improving, citing improved awareness and defensive fundamentals. It may not be enough to win MVP, but it’s hard to make the case there is any better two-way player in the game. 

3. Nikola Jokić, Denver

Earlier this month, before an anticipated matchup with San Antonio, Nuggets coach David Adelman reminded reporters: Don’t forget about my guy. “He’s the best player in the world,” Adelman said. “I just don’t want people to skip past our guy because he’s won it three times. I think that’s disappointing.”

Adelman is right. We do take Jokić for granted. Remember when averaging a triple-double seemed like a DiMaggio-esque feat? Russell Westbrook was practically handed the MVP after accomplishing it for the first time on a middling Thunder team in 2016–17. Jokić, a freaking center, has now done it in back-to-back seasons. He’s the first player to lead the NBA in rebounds and assists since 1969–70, when leaders were determined by per game averages. Two weeks ago he dropped 40 on Wembanyama, including a Sombor Shuffle with less than a minute left to all but put the game away. 

The argument against Jokić boils down to his defense, which stands out, as much as it does, in a season with razor-thin margins and when the competition is two players (Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama) who are high level on that end of the floor. Denver was a mediocre defensive team this season—21st in defensive efficiency, per NBA.com—and while Jokić isn’t the reason (Nuggets fans will rightly point to Aaron Gordon missing 46 games as a factor) he is a reason. His defense, never great, slipped in the months after his return from a knee injury. He’s routinely dumped into pick-and-rolls and he’s never been much of a rim protector (0.8 blocks per game). 

Is it a fatal flaw? No, Denver won a championship anchored by Jokić three years ago, and he has a chance to make a lot of voters eat their digital ballots if he leads Denver past San Antonio and Oklahoma City in the conference playoffs. Still, on this ballot it’s enough to bump him down the list. 

4. Luka Dončić, L.A. Lakers

Dončić’s late-season MVP surge ended earlier this month against Oklahoma City, when insult (Dončić was outplayed by Gilgeous-Alexander in a Thunder blowout) was compounded by injury (a regular-season-ending hamstring strain) in the third quarter. It was a huge bummer, as Dončić had just completed an absurdly productive March (37.5 points per game on 49.2% shooting, including 39.2% from three). He is the single most unstoppable offensive force in the NBA today. His 60-point game on the second night of a road back-to-back against Miami was the best offensive game I saw all season. Sorry, Bam. 

Dončić’s faults are similar to Jokić: Defense. He’s a decent individual defender, rival assistants often say, but he can get lost in team defense, and his frequent barking at officials often leaves the Lakers compromised. It’s not all bad: Dončić’s defense in March, when the Lakers surged into the top 10, offered a glimpse of what’s possible. Hopefully that carries over into next season. For now, though, Dončić is on the outside looking in. 

5. Jaylen Brown, Boston

Asked by ESPN recently if he deserved to win MVP, Brown said, “Analytically, probably not, honestly,” Brown said before going on to list the reasons why he should win the award. Leadership, two-way play, elevating a Celtics team with no expectations coming into the season into one with a legitimate shot to win a championship. Said Brown, “Analytics don’t quantify who I am, and who my spirit is.” 

He’s right. Brown’s numbers are good. He led the NBA in field goals and total points and was one of two players who averaged 28 points, six rebounds and five assists. The most important number: 56, as in the number of wins Boston finished the season with, five off from last season and 10 more (at least) than any reasonable observer projected coming into this one. Brown pushed a hollowed-out Celtics team—what else do you call a roster that culled four of its top nine players—to the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. Not enough to earn MVP, more than enough to claim a spot in the top five.

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