Shawn Krest
• Betting Analyst
20+ years betting experience
Updated:
Apr 17, 2026 , 09:41 AM ET
• 4 min read
The Atlanta Braves’ bats have been booming, and our expert MLB predictions expect the Braves to outslug the Phillies tonight.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Martin Perez of the Atlanta Braves MLB
The Atlanta Braves have won three straight series to open up a three-game lead in the NL East, making them the most secure division leader in baseball as they visit the Philadelphia Phillies in a divisional showdown.
The Phillies have lost three straight series, which is why our Braves vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks have the Braves winning outright.
Who will win Braves vs Phillies tonight: Braves moneyline (-108)
The Atlanta Braves are rolling in the season’s first month. Atlanta has the second-best run differential in baseball, behind only the Dodgers. They’ve also scored the second-most runs (5.6 per game) and allowed the second-fewest (3.3 per game) in MLB.
Atlanta has won six of eight and has been even better in those games, scoring 6.9 runs per game.
The Philadelphia Phillies, meanwhile, have the second-worst run differential in MLB, losing six of eight. They’ve scored 3.8 runs per game over that stretch, allowing 6.4. They’ve already lost three series at home this year, matching 2025’s total for the entire season.
COVERS INTEL: Martin Perez’s average exit velocity is up a mile and a half, and max exit velocity is up more than 4 MPH. Batters are hitting the sweet spot 39.5% of the time, up from 33.1% last year, and his swing and miss rate is down 3.7 percentage points.
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Braves vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+100)
This doesn’t look like a pitcher’s duel. Braves starter Martin Perez was cut over the weekend and re-signed to a minor league deal after nobody claimed him on waivers. His traditional stat line for the season is decent—3.14 ERA, 0.907 WHIP—but he’s not fooling anyone, likely why he nearly lost his job.
Philly starter Taijuan Walker doesn’t even have a solid traditional line—7.36 ERA, 1.909 WHIP, and opposing batters are hitting .333 with .982 OPS against him. He’s given up nine runs, 10 hits, and three homers in the first inning of his three starts this year.
Shawn Krest’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 4-7, -3.48 units
- Over/Under bets: 6-9, -3.06 units
Braves vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Braves -115 | Phillies -105
- Run line: Braves -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)
Braves vs Phillies trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 away games (+11.00 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.
How to watch Braves vs Phillies and game info
Location
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date
Friday, April 17, 2026
First pitch
6:40 p.m. ET
TV
BravesVision, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Braves starting pitcher
Martin Perez
(0-1, 3.14 ERA)
Phillies starting pitcher
Taijuan Walker
(1-2, 7.36 ERA)
Braves vs Phillies latest injuries
Braves vs Phillies weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Since quitting his job as bank assistant vice-president in 2000, Shawn has covered Final Fours, Super Bowls, World Series games and title fights in boxing and UFC. His work has appeared on ESPN, MLB.com, Sports Illustrated and dozens of other outlets. His book, Baseball Meat Market was published in 2018. He lives in North Carolina with his dog Toby, eight turtles, and wife.
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