Danny Howard
• Betting Analyst
21+ years betting experience
Updated:
Apr 18, 2026 , 08:00 AM ET
• 4 min read
Howard’s prediction: Nallo wins convincingly by decision.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Jai Herbert (red gloves) fights against Chris Padilla (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at O2 Arena
Mandel Nallo makes his main-roster UFC debut in front of a friendly Canadian crowd and against inconsistent trial horse Jai Herbert in a lightweight bout on the UFC Fight Night undercard.
Nallo is the favorite at -175 while Herbert is a +140 underdog in the UFC odds.
It will be Nallo’s controlled precision against Herbert’s athleticism in a fight that will gauge how much Nallo has to offer in the evolving lightweight division with our free betting picks on Saturday, April 18.
Nallo vs Herbert fight prediction: Nallo moneyline (-175)
Nallo vs Herbert
Apr 18 • UFC Fight Night
Fight Prediction
Nallo moneyline (-175)
Bet now at
The 36-year-old Mandel Nallo has solid fundamental skills and is a patient striker, which will be enough to throw Jai Herbert off, as he’s reliant on setting the striking pace. Herbert is an inconsistent striker who can’t commit to a game plan and gets lost when he’s off his pace. Nallo will use his defense and footwork to keep Herbert from taking any chances and can win purely off activity.
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Nallo vs Herbert best bet: Nallo to win by decision (+350)
Nallo vs Herbert
Apr 18 • UFC Fight Night
Best bet
Nallo by decision (+350)
Bet now at
Expect Nallo’s tight striking to give Herbert pause, and while Nallo isn’t a grappler, he has shown he can make things happen up close. Too much time will pass by, and Herbert will essentially be out of the fight well before the final bell. Nallo by decision is my best bet.
COVERS INTEL: Herbert has been outstruck in six of his nine UFC fights.
Mandel Nallo vs Jai Herbert odds
Method of Victory
Nallo
Herbert
To win outright
-175
+140
To win by KO/TKO
+225
+475
To win by decision
+350
+310
To win by submission
+425
+2100
Total rounds
Over 2.5
+125
Under 2.5
-160
Odds as of 4-18.
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Mandel Nallo vs Jai Herbert tale of the tape
Nallo
Herbert
36
Age
37
6-foot
Height
6-foot-1
Lightweight
Weight Class
Lightweight
75 inches
Reach
77 inches
14-3
Record
13-6-1
8
Wins by KO
9
6
Wins by submission
1
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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After a decade of covering all things boxing, from recapping the sport’s biggest fights to sharing behind-the-scenes details of the sweet science, Danny found himself immersed in sports betting, focusing on the sports he knows best. As a boxing and MMA contributor with seasoned experience from growing up around each sport, he can uncover the nuances and intangibles that can make the difference between victory and defeat.
Danny’s work has been mentioned on ESPN and USA Today, and he was a featured guest on The Esportz Network podcast, where he shared his combat sports insights. He is also a published author, with his novel And Stay Down! Boxing’s Worst Comebacks available on Amazon.
Danny is always on the lookout for the best odds and props when it comes to fight night, with Draft Kings and BetMGM being his go-to sites. Danny’s approach to finding value in the theater of the unexpected hinges on the fighters’ recent form, especially when considering props.
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