Plaid Cymru has slight lead over Reform UK in new Ipsos Wales Senedd poll, but half of voters may change mind

• The race for the Senedd sees Plaid Cymru leading with 30%, followed by Reform UK at 25%. Welsh Labour are third on 15%. However, 52% of voters may still change mind, while Reform supporters are most definitely decided (66%)
• High dissatisfaction with both Keir Starmer (68%) and the Welsh Government (64%)
• However, despite Rhun ap Iorwerth being the only leader in Wales with a positive net satisfaction rating (+7), the public are divided about his perceived readiness to be the First Minister of Wales, with 1 in 4 each saying that he is (27%) and that he isn’t (25%).  However, there are more doubts over whether Reform UK is ready to form the next government (59% disagree)
• Around 1 in 10 (11%) Welsh adults overall support full independence, but 37% prefer more powers for the Welsh Government.
• Plaid Cymru is currently the most trusted party to grow the Welsh economy (22%) and stand up for the interests of Wales (33%), while Reform UK holds the lead on the issue of immigration (25%)

Plaid Cymru leads voting intention, followed by Reform UK
The race for the Senedd sees Plaid Cymru leading with 30% of the headline voting intention, followed by Reform UK at 25%.

• Reform UK has been particularly effective at converting those who consider voting for them into firm intenders, with a conversion rate of 81%.
• In contrast, left-leaning voters face a wider choice; the Green Party, despite significant “consideration” levels, has struggled to convert that interest into voting intention (27% conversion). By contrast, conversion amongst Plaid considerers is 55%.

   

• The share of those who intend to vote for Labour currently stands at 15%, trailing both Plaid and Reform.
• Half of Welsh voters say they may yet change their minds (52%), while the remainder say they’re definitely decided (48%).  Reform voters are least likely to say they will change their minds (at 32%), compared to half of Plaid and Conservative supporters (53% each), and 6 in 10 Labour and Green supporters.
• This means the public’s expectations of the outcome are also uncertain, with 22% expecting a hung parliament with Plaid as the biggest party, but expectations of a majority for any party low.

Trust and the Constitutional Question
Trust in political parties remains low across a range of policy areas. Plaid Cymru is currently the most trusted party to grow the Welsh economy (22%) and stand up for the interests of Wales (33%), while Reform UK holds the lead on the issue of immigration (25%). On the future of Wales’ place in the UK:

• More than 1 in 3 (37%) want more powers for the Senedd.
• Only around 1 in 10 (11%) Welsh adults overall support full independence. Even among those considering voting for Plaid, only 1 in 5 (21%) favour independence.
• 3 in 10 of those who are considering voting for Reform UK (31%) favour full UK Government control.
  Challenges with leader satisfaction for Labour, preparedness for Plaid
  Public dissatisfaction extends to national and local leaders, with almost all major figures holding negative net satisfaction ratings.
• Both Keir Starmer (68%) and Eluned Morgan (52%), leader of Welsh Labour, face high levels of dissatisfaction, with 6 in 10 (62%) disagreeing that the Welsh Labour Government deserves to be re-elected in Wales.
• When presented with the leaders of Welsh Labour, Reform UK, and Plaid, the public were most likely to say Rhun ap Iorwerth would make the most capable First Minister of Wales, but only 20% – as many if not more said don’t know (28%) or that there would be no difference (18%).
• Similarly, despite Rhun ap Iorwerth being the only leader in Wales with a positive net satisfaction rating (+7), the public are divided about his perceived readiness to be the First Minister of Wales, with 1 in 4 each saying that he is (27%) and that he isn’t (25%).
• The public are also divided as to whether Plaid is ready to form the next government in Wales, with 1 in 3 each agreeing (32%) and disagreeing (33%).
• There are more doubts though both that Reform UK is not ready to form the next government in Wales (59%, vs 20% who think they are ready), and that Dan Thomas is not ready to be First Minister of Wales (37%, vs 11% who think he is ready).

Public Services and Government Performance
The Welsh public is critical of the state of the nation’s public services. Two in three (67%) believe that services in Wales have deteriorated over the last five years, and they largely place the blame on the Welsh Government (64%) and local councils (50%), followed by the UK Government (40%). Consequently, satisfaction with the Welsh Government’s overall performance is low at only 23%.

When deciding how to vote, “policies for Wales” remain the most important factor for voters (63%), though party policies on national issues (52%) and the performance of the Welsh Government (50%) also play a significant role.

Top Issues: NHS, Cost of Living, and Immigration
The NHS (74%) and the cost of living (67%) are the dominant issues for voters in Wales. However, the data reveals a sharp divide regarding immigration:

• Those who are considering voting for Reform UK are significantly more likely to cite immigration and asylum (72%) as a top-tier voting issue compared to the general population (42%).
• Those considering voting for Plaid are driven primarily by the NHS (82%) and the cost of living (68%).
• Despite Plaid’s lead, the constitutional future of Wales / devolution falls low on the priority list amongst the electorate as a whole (23%).

Commenting on the findings, Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of Politics at Ipsos in the UK said:

Our latest findings suggest a Welsh electorate that is currently weighing its options amidst significant pessimism about the economy and public services, and dissatisfaction with the performance of the Welsh Labour Government. While Plaid Cymru holds a slight lead in voting intention, have the most popular leader, and are strongest on standing up for the interests of Wales, they still have to convince the public they are ready for government and can deliver on the key issues.  
The rise of Reform UK is another key feature of this landscape, as they have proven successful at consolidating a specific segment of the vote – notably from 2024 Conservatives, and have the most decided supporters, especially over the issue of asylum and immigration. However, doubts over their readiness for government are higher, and Dan Thomas is not the first choice of most to be First Minister. This all means the public themselves are uncertain over the outcome, broadly expecting Plaid to do well but not expecting a majority, and with half of voters still to finally make up their minds the final result is still in the balance.

Notes: 
Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 747 Welsh adults aged 16+. Interviews took place online via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected between the 2nd and 8th April 2026. 

Panel members are recruited via random probability sampling, by sending letters to randomly selected addresses, which invites them to join an online panel. This approach means every household in the UK had a known and non-zero chance of being selected to join the KnowledgePanel. 

Those who are digitally excluded are provided with a tablet and free, restricted data connection. A sample of 1,417 adults aged 16+ in Wales were invited to take part in the survey. The sample was stratified and weighted to population figures on age and gender, region, ethnicity, qualifications, IMD quintile, the number of adults in the household, social grade and 2024 General Election vote (as recorded at the time). Population targets were obtained from the 2021/22 Census, ONS population estimates and other large-scale probability surveys.

As part of our ongoing review of our methodology, we conducted an experiment where half the sample was prompted with the Wales Green Party and half was not. Our initial analysis suggests this makes little difference to the shares saying they will vote for the Green Party. We will continue to carry out further analysis on the impact of prompting.