Does anyone actually think the Sixers are going to beat the Celtics in this first round series after their Game 2 win in Boston? It’s still a long shot and Philadelphia is still a heavy underdog despite having claimed home-court advantage with its resounding victory in Game 2 on Tuesday night. No one’s arguing with the oddsmakers either in this case. Boston is still undoubtedly the better team and perhaps the Celtics just had a bad night and will win the next three games. But, as of this writing, the Celtics have as many wins as the Sixers do in the series. So, we might as well try to come up with a path for Philly while we can, right?
We already got a VJ Edgecombe game on Tuesday night for the Sixers’ first win in the series. Here’s our best guess as to how the Sixers can stun the sports world and win three more games:
Just because it’s obvious, doesn’t mean it isn’t true. Maxey did have 29 points on Tuesday night, but it was a pretty inefficient 29 points on 11-of-28 shooting despite a good night from the three-point line and some clutch buckets down the stretch. I’m going to define a “Maxey game” as at least 40 points and at least six made three-pointers, two benchmarks he failed to hit on Tuesday night.
To be completely honest, Boston is probably pretty happy with the way it has defended Maxey two games into the series. Maxey’s +/- in Game 2 was a +6. That’s not bad for someone who plays as many minutes as Maxey does, but Philly was also a +8 on Tuesday night in the minutes Maxey didn’t play. The Sixers being slightly better without Maxey on the court is probably a bet Boston is willing to make moving forward. In other words, Maxey needs to find another level, however hard that might be for him to do.
The “role players got hot” game
If it feels like a pipedream that the role players of a seven seed could outplay the role players of a two seed, that’s because it probably is. But Philly needs at least one game where a few of its role players catch lightning in a bottle. The most obvious way for this to happen would be for a big shooting night from Kelly Oubre, Quentin Grimes, Paul George (yes, he’s more of a role player at this point), Andre Drummond or Justin Edwards.
Oubre and Grimes have been mainstays in Philadelphia’s rotation and both have shown the ability to score 20-30 points on certain nights. Could the Sixers get a game in which these two make a combined 10-12 three-pointers and finish with a combined 50 points between the two of them? It’s probably the most plausible path to a victory driven by players not named Edgecombe or Maxey.
As for George, the bulk of his positive contributions would probably have to come with defense on Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown. Maybe there’s a world in which George locks up one of Boston’s elite wings and the Sixers can grind out a 100-98 kind of victory.
I’ll lump Drummond and Edwards in together as the final two role players that could really make a difference for Philly in this series. Edwards has played about 20 minutes a night off the bench for the Sixers in this series and certainly plays with a lot of effort and can score at all three levels on occasion. Drummond was two rebounds shy of a double-double on Tuesday night and knocked down another triple in the Game 2 victory. Maybe there’s a game in which Drummond can have 13 and 10 and Edwards can score 15 points in a variety of ways and make a more serious impact on the series.
There’s different ingredients to this kind of win, and Philly doesn’t need all of them to come together in order to steal a second win in this series, but could enough of them come to light on one night in order for the Sixers to get closer to the second round?
OK, we’re saving the best for last. Spare me from all of the “The Sixers don’t even need Embiid anymore!” takes. Does more greatness from Edgecombe and Maxey mean more than winning the series in a lot of ways even though those two outcomes could be tied together? It certainly does and, yes, the future of the franchise being tied to the two guards is very important. Being able to move forward with such a foundation in place would be quite the narrative shift from where this franchise was one year ago. But why does that suddenly mean ditching Embiid at the same time?
Of course, Embiid’s contract is extremely expensive and even the biggest Embiid fans would probably understand getting off his contract in a future offseason if it is to happen. But what if there’s still a world in which Embiid can be dominant, and it just doesn’t happen every night? Suddenly that would be OK if Maxey and Edgecombe are driving the car most nights. All of a sudden Embiid could be a passenger! Heck, for years it felt like Embiid was driving his own car with no passengers aboard. Shouldn’t we all welcome a world in which Embiid can just show up and be his old self once or twice in a playoff series instead of it needing to happen every night for the Sixers to have a chance?
There are the obvious unknowns about where the big man is in his recovery from an appendectomy, but I don’t think we should be looking to sell every last penny of the Joel Embiid stock that we own either. This doesn’t have to be so black and white. For as long as Embiid is on the Sixers, let’s get behind him and hope for a night in which he can turn back the clock. If he can dress at all in this series and give us one vintage Embiid game, then maybe the Sixers do have a chance to do the unthinkable here.
