First quarter update | April 23, 2026
Special questions
Data were collected April 15–20; 120 oil and gas firms responded. Of the respondents, 78 were exploration and production firms, and 42 were oilfield services firms.
All firms
By when do you expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal levels?
Executives expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to eventually normalize, although most believe it will take time. Of the executives surveyed, 20 percent expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal levels by May 2026, 39 percent expect recovery by August 2026, 26 percent by November 2026, and 14 percent later than that.
Once traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal levels, how likely is it that geopolitical events will disrupt it again within the next five years?
A majority of executives say future disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz are likely. Of respondents, 48 percent say it is “very likely” that geopolitical events will disrupt traffic again within the next five years, while 38 percent view it as “somewhat likely.” Only 14 percent of executives consider future disruptions “unlikely.”
By how much do you expect the cost of shipping oil from the Persian Gulf (insurance, freight costs, tolls) to increase in dollars per barrel once the military conflict ends, compared to before the war?
Most executives expect shipping costs from the Persian Gulf to increase after the military conflict ends. The most selected response in dollars per barrel was “more than $2 but not more than $4” (36 percent of respondents).
By how much do you expect U.S. oil production to increase in response to the Iran war in 2026 and 2027?
Most executives expect U.S. oil production to increase in response to the Iran war. The most selected response for 2026 was “more than 0 but not more than 0.25 mb/d,” selected by 43 percent of the respondents. The most selected response for 2027 was “more than 0.25 but not more than 0.50 mb/d,” selected by 32 percent of the respondents.
What share of shut-in production in the Persian Gulf do you expect will return eventually?
About two-thirds of respondents think at least 90 percent of shut-in production in the Persian Gulf will return to market eventually.
How do you expect the number of employees at your company to change from December 2025 to December 2026?
The largest group, 59 percent of executives, expect employment at their firms to remain the same from December 2025 to December 2026. About a third of respondents expect employment to increase to some degree and only 8 percent expect a decline.
Whereas the most-selected response among E&P firms was for employment to “remain the same” in 2026, the most-selected response of support service firms was for employment to “increase slightly” in 2026.
Response
Percent of respondents
All firms
E&P
Services
Increase significantly
4
1
10
Increase slightly
28
17
49
Remain the same
59
73
34
Decrease slightly
6
5
7
Decrease significantly
2
3
0
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