President Donald Trump has ordered the US Navy to fire on any Iranian boats that are placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the critical energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all global crude oil.
It’s not clear what prompted Trump’s warning, but fears are growing that mines in the strait could spark economic repercussions that outlive the war.
When did Iran start laying mines?
In early March, CNN reported that Iran had begun laying mines in the strait, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue. Trump warned at the time that if mines were placed and not removed, Tehran would face consequences “at a level never before seen.”
The sources said in March that Iran could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway. But it doesn’t take that many to effectively keep the strait shut as commercial captains and ship owners don’t want to take the risk.
Later that month, Iran’s military said Tehran had “no need” to mine the Persian Gulf to assert its power and would use “every possible means to ensure security as necessary.”
What are the potential impacts?
Aside from the obvious risks to vessels in the region, and the safety of crew members, the presence of mines could delay the reopening of the strait.
Pentagon officials briefed lawmakers this week on an intelligence assessment that found it could take up to six months to fully clear the strait of mines after the war with Iran ends, a source familiar with the matter told CNN. A Pentagon spokesman said Wednesday that a six-month closure would be “unacceptable.”
How easily can the mines be removed?
US Central Command chief Adm. Bradley Cooper said last week the number of mines in the strait is “well within our ability to remove,” adding that the US has already been conducting de-mining operations.
Trump repeated Thursday that US “mine ‘sweepers’ are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level!”
