Fort Myers News-Press & Naples Daily News
April is an odd weather month as temperatures can range from the 40s to nearly 100 degrees.
So, it’s not too late for a perfect spring morning, and those conditions could arrive here again within the next week, meteorologists say.
“Some of the models are saying next weekend we could see a front system and get wind shifts,” said Eric Oglesby, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin, the office the covers the Fort Myers-Cape Coral area. “There’s potential next week with a more significant cold front coming down.”
This is the time of year when cold fronts are petering out in north Florida, not quit reaching the subtropical tip of the peninsula.
Still, cooler, dry air does reach the Fort Myers-Naples area this time of year.
“This time of year, all of the energy is well to the north of the (Southwest Florida) area,” Oglesby said. “So, we don’t see the rain, but we do see the drier air behind it. April is typically one of driest months of year.”
The 2026 calendar year started off really dry, and most of the state has been in a state of drought for several months.
Daily rains typically start here on May 15, on average, according to historic weather records that date back to 1902.
“We’re still four to five weeks away from being solidly in the rainy season,” Oglesby said. “At this time of year and into early May, you don’t get a true sea breeze storms. We have had sea breezes in the afternoon, but it’s too early in the season for any thunderstorm activity on a larger scale.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, is calling for above average rainfall for all of Florida for the months of May, June and July.
Extra rain would be welcome for a state that’s experienced raging drought conditions or several months.
The South Florida Water Management District forecast says 0.5 inches of rain or more will fall over the Everglades National Park area over the next week.
That forecast includes parts of Collier County.
Rain has been psarse in 2026 for Fort Myers, Naples
National Weather Service records show 4.8 inches of rain has fallen over Fort Myers this calendar year.
That’s 3.3 inches below average rainfall for that period, NWS says.
April has produced average rainfall, as did the month of March, according to NWS records.
The lack of rain comes during the height of the wildfire season, which coincides with spring and early summer.
Fire is a natural part of Florida’s ecology, a necessary ingredient that helps keep the environment balanced and thriving.
Several large fires have burned across the state in recent weeks, with a fire in Picayune Strand State Forest burning more than 1,000 acres near Naples this month.
El Nino expected to be in place soon
La Nina dominated this past winter and spring, bringing drier conditions to Southwest Florida.
Conditions now are neutral and an El Nino watch is in effect, Oglesby said.
El Nino is expected to be in place most of the summer and fall.
This weather phenomena is governed by equatorial temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
The good news is that El Nino tends to suppress the formation of tropical storms and hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf.
“El Nino doesn’t have any impact on our weather here in the summer except there can be reduced tropical activity,” Ogelsby said. “In the winter, we see above-normal rainfall but in the summer, there is not direct impact.”
Chad Gillis is an environment reporter and can be reached by email at [email protected].
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