April 24 (UPI) — A catastrophe in global aviation fuel is taking shape, and almost no one is paying attention.
The culprit is the prolonged conflict in the Middle East and the supply insecurity it has introduced into global crude oil markets. Jet fuel is refined from crude oil, and the vast majority of jet fuel-producing nations — South Korea, Singapore, India, and Japan among them — import that crude through the Strait of Hormuz, now under sustained threat of blockade. Unlike most petroleum derivatives, jet fuel is structurally among the most exposed products in this crisis.
The consequences of a supply disruption would be swift and severe. At minimum, one-third of the world’s airports could see fleets grounded as prices spike beyond what carriers can absorb. The cascading damage to business travel, logistics, and global supply chains would rival the economic toll of open warfare. The early warning signs are already visible: jet fuel prices have more than doubled, inventories are thinning, and airlines are quietly cutting routes.
On April 16, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, reported that European jet fuel reserves had fallen to roughly six weeks of supply — a warning that, one week on, means approximately five weeks remain. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, Europe’s aviation sector is in a genuinely precarious position.
The same day Birol spoke, Britain’s Daily Telegraph reported that Lufthansa and KLM had announced service reductions. Lufthansa plans to ground all 27 aircraft operated by its regional subsidiary CityLine, which has provided intra-European business routes, and will remove six additional long-haul aircraft from its schedule after the summer travel season. A senior Lufthansa official cited geopolitical instability and surging jet fuel costs as the reasons.
The European Union, which sources roughly 75% of its jet fuel from the Middle East, is now scrambling to respond. Options under discussion include joint EU procurement, with Britain and other non-member states potentially participating. The United Kingdom alone consumes approximately 13.5 million tons (14.9 million U.S. tons) of jet fuel annually, refining only 4 million tons (4.4 million U.S. tons) domestically and importing the rest.
The crisis is spreading beyond Europe. Vietnam Airlines suspended its Hanoi-Auckland service in late March due to fuel shortages; low-cost carrier VietJet has cut domestic routes as well. Vietnam imports more than two-thirds of its jet fuel needs and has effectively reached a supply crunch. New Zealand has approximately 27 days of reserves remaining, and Air New Zealand has cancelled more than 1,100 flights. Australia, with only 30 days of supply left, appears likely to follow. Japan’s airports have begun notifying carriers of potential refueling restrictions, prioritizing domestic aircraft over foreign ones — a sign that even one of Asia’s most advanced economies is under pressure.
All of this has focused global attention on South Korea. China and Thailand have already moved to restrict jet fuel exports. Now the world is watching Seoul.
Korea is not merely the world’s top jet fuel exporter. It is the dominant one — by a margin that is difficult to overstate. Korea exports 251,000 barrels per day, a volume that effectively matches the combined exports of the United States (132,000 barrels) and the Netherlands (123,000 barrels). Korea controls nearly 30 percent of the global jet fuel market. Without Korean jet fuel, roughly one aircraft in three worldwide could not fly.
Korea supplies more than 50 countries, including the United States, Australia, Singapore, Japan, and New Zealand. The U.S. relationship is particularly critical: approximately 70 percent of American jet fuel imports originate in Korea. California, isolated from the rest of the country by the Rocky Mountains with no direct pipeline connection to other regions, is effectively an energy island — importing Korean jet fuel by sea is simply more economical than overland alternatives. The shipping data platform Kpler, reports that the U.S. West Coast imported an average of 54,000 barrels of jet fuel per day last year, roughly a third of which came from Korea. Were Korea to restrict those exports, West Coast airports would face near-paralysis, with perhaps one aircraft in three grounded.
Prices reflect the mounting pressure. Since the conflict began, crude oil has risen 50 to 60%, but jet fuel has surged more than 120 percent — from around $80 per barrel before the war to a peak of $216. Airlines that hedged against crude rather than jet fuel specifically have absorbed hundreds of millions in unexpected costs.
Much of this would never have come to light without the conflict to expose it. Most Koreans themselves had no idea. Jet fuel is produced in limited quantities, is difficult to store long-term, and requires rigorous quality controls: it must remain fluid at minus 50 degrees Celsius (-58 degrees Fahrenheit) at cruising altitude, making it uniquely vulnerable to supply chain shocks.
Korea has no oil fields of its own. What it has built instead — through technology, capital, and two decades of relentless refinement — is something the world now depends on: the largest above-ground oil field on earth. Over the past two decades, Korean refiners including SK Energy and GS Caltex have invested more than 40 trillion won ($27 billion) in advanced upgrading facilities, converting imported heavy crude into high-grade jet fuel and light petroleum products. Through relentless effort, they maximized yields that others could not match. While the global average upgrading ratio stands at 25%, Korea operates at nearly 40&. Technology, in Korea’s case, has substituted for the resources nature never provided.
Nohsok Choi is the former chief editor of the Kyunghyang Shinmun and former Paris correspondent. He currently serves as president of the Kyunghyang Shinmun Alumni Association, President of the Korean Media & Culture Forum, and CEO of the YouTube channel One World TV. The Views expressed in this commentary are his own.
