(Bloomberg) — Oil rose after efforts to resume peace talks over the Iran war stalled, leaving the Strait of Hormuz almost impassable and prolonging the supply disruption that has roiled global markets.
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West Texas Intermediate futures gained 2.1% to settle above $96 a barrel, while Brent closed near $108. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said US President Donald Trump discussed an Iranian proposal with his national security team, but was vague about details and the US reaction.
A wave of Monday headlines underscored persistent gaps in understanding between US and Iranian negotiators, reinforcing the view that a resolution is not imminent. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump canceled a planned trip by his top envoys to Pakistan, which is mediating talks, while Iran said it won’t negotiate if it’s being threatened.
The two sides have mostly observed a ceasefire since early April, but shipping blockades by both the US and Iran have cut daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to near zero. The supply shock has choked off supplies of crude, fuel, natural gas and fertilizers, raising concerns about an inflation crisis.
A peace deal remains unlikely in the near-term, with the US still focused on Iran relinquishing its nuclear capabilities, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities Inc. “We are seeing higher crude prices being placed further out into the futures curve, as supplies look to remain tighter for longer,” he added.
The US president on Saturday told his envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to skip the trip to Pakistan, and later told reporters that Iran “offered a lot, but not enough.” Iran’s top diplomat met mediators in Pakistan and left Islamabad well ahead of the planned arrival of US envoys. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his nation won’t enter “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.”
The US-Israel war on Iran, now in its ninth week, has driven up energy prices and led to shortages of key products such as liquefied petroleum gas in India. The International Energy Agency says the conflict is causing the biggest supply shock in history.
The longer Hormuz is closed, the more consumption is going to have to recalibrate lower to align with a drop of at least 10% in supply, according to traders. A loss of 1 billion barrels is already all but guaranteed — more than double the emergency inventories that governments released after the conflict.
So-called demand destruction, such as airlines cutting back on the number of scheduled flights, is likely to spread. Still, there is some cushion: Europe has roughly 200 days of jet fuel import cover left, Alastair Syme, global head of energy research at Citi said in a webcast.
US forces intercepted a sanctioned vessel in the Arabian Sea on Saturday as part of the blockade, according to US Central Command. A Navy helicopter was deployed to intercept the vessel, which subsequently complied with military directions to turn back to Iran under escort. A total of 38 ships have been redirected since the start of the blockade as of Sunday, Centcom said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested Iran still wants to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz and cast that as unacceptable to the US.
Separately, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Russia and met with President Vladimir Putin. Araghchi said the Iranian people are able to resist “US aggression and will be able to overcome it,” state-owned Nour News said on Monday.
Most of Iran’s crude is exported to China, with the country’s private refiners — known as teapots — taking advantage of the cheaper barrels. On Friday, the US sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery Co. over its links to Tehran, just weeks ahead of an expected summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Hengli has denied any trade with Iran.
“This combination is unstable in a particular way,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley. “Every day the current situation persists, the oil market tightens, putting upward pressure on prices. On the other hand, if a peace deal were to be announced soon, oil supply could improve and part of the risk premium in prices could dissipate.”
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–With assistance from Charles Gorrivan.
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