YouGov’s MRP of the 2026 local elections shows Reform UK on course for significant gains in the West Midlands

Reform UK are in contention to win the highest vote share in every council in the region

Key takeaways

• Reform UK are expected to make significant gains in the West Midlands on 7 May, being in contention to top the poll in all 13 council areas according to our central projections, including double-digit vote share leads in seven
• Labour and the Conservatives are set to suffer significant losses, with both projected to see their support drop by more than 20 points on multiple councils if the vote were happening today
• The Greens are also set for big gains, including in Birmingham and Coventry, which our model suggests are close three-horse races between them, Labour and Reform UK

YouGov’s latest MRP model for the 2026 local elections, covering councils up for election in the West Midlands, projects significant gains for Reform UK across the region, with Labour and the Conservatives both suffering significant losses in what was once prime swing territory between the two parties. But while Nigel Farage’s party is on course for clear victories in some districts, margins in many of the councils in the West Midlands metropolitan county are tight.

The model, which uses data from more than 2,000 adults in the relevant West Midlands council areas in fieldwork from 27 March – 27 April, projects vote shares for each of the parties in 13 authorities going to the polls on 7 May. With some races being so close, and with a mixture of local authorities up for election in parts or as a whole, we are not projecting seat wins and council control as in previous years, but are instead focussing on support for the parties. The map below shows which party, according to our MRP model, we believe will emerge on the night with the largest vote share.

According to the central vote share projections of our model, the councils up for election in the West Midlands fall into two categories. The first are areas where Reform UK are clearly ahead, which includes double-digit leads for the party in Cannock Chase, Dudley, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Nuneaton, Redditch, Tamworth and Walsall, as well as a six point lead in Rugby.

The second category are tighter races, where there is a margin of five percentage points or less between the first-placed and second-placed parties in our median projection. This includes Labour and Reform UK being neck-and-neck in both Sandwell and Wolverhampton, a close race between the Conservatives and Reform UK in Solihull, and particularly narrow three-way contests between Labour, Reform UK and the Greens in Birmingham (where we also project gains for independents and candidates for smaller parties) and Coventry.

Overall, the MRP model’s central projection expects that Reform UK will win the highest vote share in 11 of the 13 councils, with Labour topping the poll in the other two, even if the margins are small in many cases.

The last time these councils were contested, which was variously 2022 or 2024, Labour won the highest vote share in nine of them, with the Conservatives emerging as the most popular party in the other four, though like today, some of those were very close races too.