AccuWeather’s 2026 severe weather season forecast
Find out what areas of the United States are most at risk for severe weather and tornadoes this spring.
The weather is already warming up, but the official start of summer is still weeks away.
AccuWeather has provided a long-term forecast for the hottest months of the year. El Niño is expected to be very strong in 2026. Most of the U.S. can expect above-average temperatures, severe storms — like derechos or tornadoes — and floods.
There is some good news for Mississippi. Only a small sliver of the state has an elevated risk of flooding. And that level isn’t considered moderate or high.
But there’s a flip side to that.
AccuWeather warns that long, dry stretches could worsen drought along parts of the Gulf Coast this summer. The Magnolia State also has a moderate wildfire risk.
At least we won’t get a plague of locusts. Probably. Projections don’t call for more cicadas than usual.
When will severe storms happen near you? Here’s what we know about the summer weather forecast for Mississippi.
AccuWeather summer forecast for Mississippi
AccuWeather meteorologists expect most of the country to see hotter-than-average temperatures. In Mississippi, June through August could be about two to three degrees warmer than normal.
Severe weather, including tornadoes and thunderstorms, is going to be possible all summer for most of the country.
“The number of tornadoes can run near to above average in June and July,” Paul Pastelok, a long-range expert with AccuWeather, said. “The numbers can drop off dramatically in August.”
The northern half of Mississippi should see its peak severe weather in June and July. The southern half is likely to see more strong thunderstorms in July and August.
The northern third of Mississippi is also at moderate risk of a derecho. The powerful lines of thunderstorms are sometimes called “inland hurricanes.” Winds can top 100 mph.
Summer weather depends on El Niño
El Niño happens when ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator warm up. They have to be at least 0.9 of a degree Fahrenheit over long-term averages.
The weather pattern can make winter and spring colder and wetter in the Southeast.
But it can also increase the volatility of the weather we see. So fewer tornadoes but more heat and severe thunderstorms.
It can create strong upper-level winds across the Atlantic. The wind shear makes it hard for tropical storms to develop.
Will we get a Super El Niño in 2026?
If a “Super” or “Godzilla” El Niño develops, it will cut down on hurricanes in late October and November, according to AccuWeather.
There’s about a 15% chance that the ocean water in that part of the Pacific will be warmer than 3.6 degrees, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
That could be good news if you want a weak Atlantic hurricane season.
But it could have far-reaching impacts like flooding, droughts and heat waves across the rest of the world.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
AccuWeather’s hurricane season forecast calls for:
- Named storms: 11-16
- Hurricanes: 4-7
- Major hurricanes: 2-4
- Direct U.S. impacts: 3-5
Mississippi tropical weather forecast
AccuWeather listed Mississippi as being at high risk of direct impacts from tropical storms or hurricanes in a previous long-range forecast.
The meteorologists looked at previous years with similar weather patterns, like 2009, 2014, 2018 and 2023.
A hurricane doesn’t touch land in a state to have an impact. Rain, high winds and storm surge can cause millions of dollars in damage.
When does summer start in 2026?
Meteorologists say June 1 is the first day of summer.
The first day of the astronomical season is Sunday, June 21, 2026, in the Northern Hemisphere. Summer kicks off each year with the solstice, or longest day, and that can be June 20, 21 or 22.
What is the longest day of the year in 2026?
The longest day of the year will have the most sunlight. The summer solstice will be Sunday, June 21, 2026.
The shortest day with the longest night will be the winter solstice. It’s on Monday, Dec. 21, 2026.
Bonnie Bolden is the Deep South Connect reporter for Mississippi with USA TODAY NETWORK. Email her at [email protected].
