Louisville, Ky.
In his first 24 trips to the Kentucky Derby, Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher had the favorite’s role three times and was stuck in the 1 hole three times.
This year he got both.
Renegade, an impressive winner in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, drew post 1 and was made the 4-1 morning-line favorite. Bettors who have made early wagers are more circumspect. They had Renegade at 5-1 on Thursday morning, still the favorite.
Kentucky Derby 2026: Final key handicapping optics.
“If he was morning-line favorite or not, we’re going to be on pins and needles like everyone else just hoping everything goes smoothly,” Pletcher said this week at Churchill Downs. “Honestly I don’t feel any added pressure because of being the morning-line favorite. We’d feel the same way if we were the second, third, fourth choice.”
Pletcher knows there is no guarantee of everything going smoothly. Two of the last three years, he and owner Mike Repole have had their Derby horse scratched by a Kentucky state veterinarian less than 36 hours before post time.
Todd Pletcher in Kentucky Derby
Post 1
Odds
Finish
2004 Limestone
41-1
4th
2021 Known Agenda
9-1
9th
2022 Mo Donegal
10-1
5th
2026 Renegade
*4-1
Favorites
Odds
Finish
2017 Always Dreaming
9-2
1st
2023 Forte
*3-1
scr
2024 Fierceness
3-1
15th
2026 Renegade
*4-1
Wins
Odds
Finish
2010 Super Saver
8-1
1st
2017 Always Dreaming
9-2
1st
*Morning line
What’s more, the rail post has been a millstone. It has been 40 years since Ferdinand became the only Derby winner since 1964 to have worn saddle cloth no. 1. At the time Pletcher was finishing his senior year at James Madison High School in San Antonio.
Rather than a pair of gates pinched together with a big set of tires between them, Churchill Downs has used a 20-horse gate for the last five runnings of the Derby. It gives post 1 a clearer path to the inside rail in the first 100 yards. It did not eliminate the bottlenecked cavalry charge to the clubhouse turn.
“I went back and watched all the replays since the new gate has been there, and I still think it’s a tough spot,” Pletcher said.
He knows too well, having the misfortune of drawing the inside post now three times with the new gate. Known Agenda finished ninth in 2021, and Mo Donegal came in fifth in 2022.
“The break becomes so critical,” Pletcher said. “Mo Donegal, he didn’t break well, and he got shuffled way back. Watching the replay of that race, I respect how well he really ran and have to think, with a little different trip, he might have been right there. Known Agenda was like 11th at one point after breaking and then got shuffled all the way back to 18th. He was never able to recover from that.”
Pletcher said Citizen Bull last year may have gotten the best trip from the inside draw even if it was unorthodox. Racing for trainer Bob Baffert, jockey Martín García veered outward from the break six paths and took the lead into the clubhouse turn before fading to finish 15th.
“It looked like Citizen Bull got the trip he wanted, but I’m sure they had to use him harder than they wanted to to make sure they got out of there,” Pletcher said.
When he found out Renegade drew the 1, Pletcher said he was in mid-flight to Kentucky and that he “reached for the air-sickness bag.”
Baffert said he could relate, especially when Lookin At Lucky drew the rail in the old double-gate setup in 2010.
“I just got that pit in my stomach,” Baffert said this week. “It’s almost like you want to just go to the airport and leave. But that’s the thing. It’s the luck of the draw.”
Lookin At Lucky was the Derby’s last no. 1 horse who was the post-time favorite. With the late Garrett Gómez riding, he got slammed into the inner rail twice on the way to the first turn, and he finished sixth. Two weeks later he won the Preakness.
“It’s a tough spot,” Pletcher said.
Repole owns Renegade in partnership with Robert and Lawana Law. The $975,000 colt by Into Mischief broke his maiden in his second start before finishing his 2-year-old season with a second-place result in the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct. After a two-month break, Renegade christened his 3-year-old campaign Feb. 7 with a 3 3/4-length victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
Then came the Arkansas Derby triumph. It was a worst-to-first effort March 28, although Renegade never was more than 4 1/4 lengths behind at any call. Irad Ortiz Jr., who also has the Kentucky Derby assignment, kept his mount within striking distance of a pedestrian pace. Wheeling four wide out of the second turn, Renegade took the lead at the eighth pole and drew away. His 11.84-second final furlong was punctuated with a career-high 98 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form.
“It was more of a confirmation of what we expected, but I think the most impressive part was his final eighth of a mile,” Pletcher said. “I think everyone has identified that you just don’t see a lot of dirt horses close the way he did and show that turn of foot and come home the final eighth in less than 12 seconds.”
The Arkansas Derby confirmed to Pletcher that Renegade does not need to have suicidal speed in front of him to win Saturday.
“I don’t know that we’re relying on a super-fast pace,” he said. “We need an honest pace, and we need to obviously work out a trip from the 1 hole.”
Pletcher has seen the best and worst of having the top choice at post time in the Derby. Always Dreaming was his first such favorite, and he won at odds of 9-2 in 2017. Fierceness last year went off at 3-1 and wilted to a 15th-place finish.
Renegade will be Pletcher’s 66th Derby horse, far and away the most of any trainer in the race’s 152-year history. Pletcher and Repole will experience anxious moments hoping Kentucky’s chief regulatory veterinarian Nick Smith will not find something wrong the way he did with Forte in 2023 and Grande last year.
And of course, there is post 1.
“I wouldn’t trade places with anyone heading into this Kentucky Derby,” Repole said on X after Saturday’s post-position draw. “I’ll take Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr. and the best horse in the race, Renegade, from the 1 post every time. Is it ideal? No. But I’ll take the 1 post over (posts) 15–20 all day with Renegade’s closing style and explosive late kick. He’ll save plenty of ground while others are running extra distance.”
At least through Saturday night, Pletcher hopes for a continuation of the year so far.
“Knock on wood,” he said. “So far everything has gone according to plan.”
