(Bloomberg) — Iran’s new supreme leader gave a rare statement on Thursday, vowing not to give up the country’s nuclear or missile technologies and signaling Tehran would keep control of the Strait of Hormuz.
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The Islamic Republic will “guard” its “advanced technologies” like it does its own borders, Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement. It will “secure the Persian Gulf region and dismantle the hostile enemy’s exploitation of this waterway,” he added, referring to the vital strait.
Khamenei replaced his father Ali, who was killed on the first day of the US-Israel war against Iran on Feb. 28. He’s not been seen or heard in public since his appointment, with several reports saying he was badly injured in the same airstrike on his father.
The US and Iran show little sign of breaking an impasse and agreeing to another round of peace talks, with President Donald Trump insisting that his navy’s blockade is working.
Trump told Axios the blockade of Iran’s ports is “somewhat more effective than the bombing” and “choking” the country by restricting its oil exports. As well as reopening the Hormuz strait, the US wants Iran to agree to severe restrictions on nuclear enrichment and to handover stockpiles of highly-processed uranium.
At the same time, US military commanders are set to brief Trump on options on Thursday, Axios reported, citing unnamed sources. Centcom, which oversees American forces in the Middle East, has prepared a plan for a short wave of strikes to break the negotiating deadlock, Axios said.
Oil fluctuated significantly on Thursday. Brent futures initially rose to a wartime high of around $126 a barrel, before easing to $114. They’re still up more than 8% this week as traders factor in the possibility of a return to hostilities and a prolonged shutdown of the strait. The warring sides began a ceasefire around April 7.
“Trump wants to end the Iran war, but not on the terms proposed by Tehran,” said Becca Wasser and Chris Kennedy, analysts at Bloomberg Economics. “That suggests the question is no longer whether he escalates to push for a better offer, but when and how. We think the most likely window for action is within the next two weeks, and that renewed US strikes are the most likely course.”
Iran has said it won’t reopen the strait to commercial vessels until the US lifts its blockade. It’s unclear how long Iran has left before it runs out of oil storage and is forced to cut production.
Signs of strain on the Iranian economy have emerged in recent days, with the currency weakening to a fresh low.
Trump on Wednesday told reporters that talks are continuing “telephonically” between the two sides after an abortive effort to meet in Pakistan over the weekend.
Here’s more on the war:
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US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned the energy shock brought by the war “hasn’t even peaked yet,” saying at a press conference that “the conflict in the Middle East has added to” economic “uncertainty.”
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The US is seeking forfeiture of two Iran-linked oil tankers seized by naval forces enforcing the blockade against the Islamic Republic, according to a senior White House official.
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Increasing numbers of so-called clean tankers that transport fuels like diesel and gasoline are becoming dirty crude carriers as the impact of the war in Iran makes switching more profitable.
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The US military is weighing sending the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible use against Iran, seeking a longer-range system to hit ballistic-missile launchers deep inside the country.
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Top Pentagon officials finally put a price tag on the war in Iran so far during a contentious congressional hearing on Wednesday. Analysts say the $25 billion figure they cited underestimates the total cost by a large amount.
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