Photo:
Churchill Downs / Margaret Burlingham
Late scratches notwithstanding, and taking the horses who were added to the field into account, key handicapping optics for Kentucky Derby 2026 look as final as they can be four days before post time.
History has been kind to certain big speed numbers and closing fractions from those final preps, which seem like they were run 100 years ago.
Last year Sovereignty became the 29th cashable winner in the last 34 runnings of the Derby to bring in a best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95, according to Daily Racing Form.
Will pace make the race in Kentucky Derby 2026?
Twenty of the last 26 cashable winners, meaning Medina Spirit and not the subsequently promoted Mandaloun in 2021, brought at least a 100 Brisnet Speed Rating into the Derby. Sovereignty’s best had been 99. This year Renegade, the morning-line favorite, falls three points short of that threshold.
Longtime writer-turned-publicist Jennie Rees established the research that says 31 of the last 36 cashable Derby victors finished their last prep races with fractions of no worse than 13.0 seconds for the final furlong or 38.0 for the final three. Sovereignty was the fourth consecutive winner to have accomplished one or the other and the second in a row who had met both the final one- and three-furlong criteria.
These are the numbers for this year’s field of 20 horses plus the four also-eligibles. There are no comparable speed numbers for horses based outside the U.S. and Canada.
Kentucky Derby 2026
Beyer
Brisnet
TFUS
HRN
Last 1f
Last 3f
1 Renegade
98
97
118
121
11.8
36.6
2 Albus
84
91
98
106
13.3
38.8
3 Intrepido
89
99
113
111
14.0
39.4
4 Litmus Test bk on
96
102
117
125
12.9
38.8
5 Right to Party
81
90
105
107
13.0
38.6
6 Commandment
101
103
117
123
12.3
36.5
7 Danon Bourbon
m12.6
m35.8
8 So Happy
100
103
116
128
12.9
37.7
9 The Puma
100
100
116
130
12.7
36.9
10 Wonder Dean
m14.1
m40.0
11 Incredibolt
88
100
108
111
11.9
36.1
12 Chief Wallabee bk on
100
103
116
132
12.6
36.9
14 Potente
95
100
112
116
13.3
38.4
15 Emerging Market
97
102
112
121
*12.5
*37.5
16 Pavlovian
90
101
114
120
*12.6
*37.8
17 Six Speed
m14.5
m41.0
18 Further Ado
106
105
117
127
13.0
37.5
19 Golden Tempo
88
100
111
116
*12.4
*37.2
21 Great White (g)
84
92
98
110
14.9
41.5
22 Ocelli
81
92
102
105
13.4
39.0
23 Robusta ae
89
97
113
111
14.9
40.8
24 Corona de Oro ae
92
91
108
129
*13.7
*39.0
*Last prep not 1 1/8 miles
**Last prep on synthetic
ae – also eligible
g – gelding
m – Converted from metric
Best Beyer – Daily Racing Form
Best Bris – Brisnet
TFUS – TimeformUS via DRF
HRN – Horse Racing Nation
Even though six horses meet all the criteria, that does not necessarily make them the most likely winners Saturday. These were the boxes checked by the 11 most recent Derby horses whose win tickets were cashed:
Kentucky Derby
DRF 95+
Bris 100+
1f 13.0
3f 38.0
2025 Sovereignty
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
2024 Mystik Dan
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
2023 Mage
No
Yes
No
Yes
2022 Rich Strike
No
No
No
Yes
2021 Medina Spirit*
Yes
No
No
No
2020 Authentic
Yes
Yes
No
No
2019 Country House*
No
No
Yes
Yes
2018 Justify
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
2017 Always Dreaming
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
2016 Nyquist
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
2015 American Pharoah
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
*Cashable winner
