The 2025-26 Broadway season – which began last June with Jean Smart’s long-awaited return to the stage in Call Me Izzy and concluded last week with a starry revival of August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone and the technical marvel, screen-to-stage musical adaptation of The Lost Boys – featured 30 musicals, plays, and revivals. Though a dozen fewer eligible shows than last season, this year’s Tony Awards nevertheless promise nail-biting races in all four top production categories and thrilling showdowns amongst stage and screen performers.
Before the Tony nominations are announced on May 5, here’s a snapshot of the official Gold Derby odds below – derived from predictions by our experts, editors, and users – in 17 of the 26 categories. Agree or disagree with our odds? There’s still time to make your predictions.
MUSICALS
BEST MUSICAL
1. Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 98.85%
2. Schmigadoon! – 98.15%
3. The Lost Boys – 97.69%
4. Titaníque – 95.61%
BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
1. Ragtime – 97.14%
2. Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 95.47%
3. The Rocky Horror Show – 80.19%
BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL)
1. Caissie Levy, Ragtime – 98.93%
2. Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 94.86%
3. Marla Mindelle, Titaníque – 92.93%
4. Sara Chase, Schmigadoon! – 85.22%
5. Lea Michele, Chess – 79.87%
BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL)
1. Joshua Henry, Ragtime – 98.49%
2. Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 92.24%
3. Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime – 86.85%
4. Nicholas Christopher, Chess – 84.05%
5. Luke Evans, The Rocky Horror Show – 54.09%
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL)
1. Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime – 94.61%
2. Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys – 92.46%
3. “Tempress” Chasity Moore, Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 87.07%
4. Shaina Taub, Ragtime – 49.57%
5. Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon! – 48.06%
BEST FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL)
1. André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 94.85%
2. Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime – 94.41%
3. Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys – 88.59%
4. Jim Parsons, Titaníque – 58.84%
5. Constantine Rousouli, Titaníque – 46.53%
BEST DIRECTOR (MUSICAL)
1. Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 97.83%
2. Lear DeBessonet, Ragtime – 94.70%
3. Michael Arden, The Lost Boys – 91.08%
4. Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 85.30%
5. Sam Pinkleton, The Rocky Horror Show – 63.37%
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 99.23%
2. The Lost Boys – 98.47%
3. The Queen of Versailles – 74.42%
4. Beaches – 71.61%
5. Proof – 59.08%
BEST MUSICAL BOOK
1. Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 98.91%
2. Schmigadoon! – 97.28%
3. Titaníque – 95.65%
4. The Lost Boys – 94.02%
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
1. Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 98.32%
2. Schmigadoon! – 97.77%
3. The Rocky Horror Show – 92.18%
4. The Lost Boys – 89.66%
5. Ragtime – 79.05%
PLAYS
BEST PLAY
1. Giant – 98.44%
2. Liberation – 98.22%
3. The Balusters – 90.87%
4. Little Bear Ridge Road – 44.10%
BEST PLAY REVIVAL
1. Death of a Salesman – 97.11%
2. Oedipus – 96.44%
3. Bug – 72.44%
4. Proof – 58.22%
5. Marjorie Prime – 56.44%
BEST ACTRESS (PLAY)
1. Lesley Manville, Oedipus – 98.47%
2. Carrie Coon, Bug – 93.25%
3. Susannah Flood, Liberation – 90.41%
4. Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels – 78.87%
5. Ayo Edebiri, Proof – 57.95%
BEST ACTOR (PLAY)
1. John Lithgow, Giant – 97.84%
2. Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman – 96.33%
3. Mark Strong, Oedipus – 96.33%
4. Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing – 85.75%
5. Adrien Brody, The Fear of 13 – 57.45%
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY)
1. Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman – 97.36%
2. June Squibb, Marjorie Prime – 89.45%
3. Betsy Aidem, Liberation – 89.01%
4. Kara Young, Proof – 81.32%
5. Cynthia Nixon, Marjorie Prime – 59.78%
BEST FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY)
1. Christopher Abbott, Death of a Salesman – 96.02%
2. Elliot Levey, Giant – 89.23%
3. Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime – 86.18%
4. Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw – 61.12%
5. Charlie Thurston, Liberation – 57.38%
BEST DIRECTOR (PLAY)
1. Robert Icke, Oedipus – 96.55%
2. Whitney White, Liberation – 95.32%
3. Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman – 94.33%
4. Nicholas Hytner, Giant – 86.95%
5. Anne Kauffman, Marjorie Prime – 53.45%
