The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Los Angeles Lakers four times in the regular season. Four more wins, and the defending champions are back in the Western Conference finals.
Both teams survived and advanced in the first round. But as the second round looms, each is missing an All-NBA-level player, with Jalen Wiliams and Luka Dončić sidelined with hamstring injuries.
So what have we learned over the past two weeks? And what can we expect from the teams’ first playoff matchup since 2012? Let’s discuss.
Why did the Thunder and Lakers win their first-round series?
Joel Lorenzi on the Thunder: The Thunder never gave Phoenix any breathing room. Limiting turnovers became the subject of coach Jordan Ott’s meetings, an inevitability for every OKC opponent. When the Suns finally found some semblance of ball control, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander still snaked through coverages and dominated. Any mention of the Thunder as a machine must refer to SGA and the defense that backs him.
Doug Haller on the Thunder: There was no drama or adversity against the Suns, but the Thunder advanced because of their defensive depth. They not only stopped Devin Booker, but they got in his head to the point that Booker, the NBA’s ninth-leading scorer during the regular season, became more of a distributor than a scorer. This wasn’t just Luguentz Dort shutting down Booker with physicality. It was Dort and Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso — three All-Defensive-caliber players. When Dort went to the bench, Booker got little relief. In Game 1, OKC contested 16 of 17 of Booker’s shots. The Thunder never let up.
Dan Woike on the Lakers: Two words for the Lakers: resilience and adaptability. The injury to Kevin Durant probably opened the door even wider for the team, but after getting rid of Houston in Game 6, it’s obvious that the Lakers would’ve been tough to beat regardless. The team played with consistent energy early in the seres and found ways to close — even when things got more competitive.
Will Guillory on the Lakers: The easy answer from Houston’s perspective would be Durant’s absence from most of the series due to right knee and left ankle injuries. But the Rockets lost the one game Durant played, and frankly, that game may have been Houston’s worst of the series.
Above all, Lakers coach JJ Redick had his team better prepared for the first few games of the series, both in terms of urgency and game plan. It took too long for Ime Udoka to find the proper adjustments. Also, Houston’s offensive performance was so poor — with or without Durant — that it couldn’t do enough to take advantage in rebounding and turnovers.
What did we learn about the Thunder and Lakers that should carry over to the next series? How do they match up?
Lorenzi on the Thunder: We got a sense of what Ajay Mitchell is made of on a meaningful stage. Once Williams went down, Mitchell saw his first two career playoff starts a year removed from hardly being featured in the playoff rotation (primarily due to injury recovery). Game 3 was rough, but he wasn’t shy. Progression isn’t linear, but he was a plus-27 and seriously poised in a closeout game, all while upgrading his efficiency and keeping that volume. OKC is counting on his floor as an offensive stabilizer and secondary creator, and I’m not sure the Lakers have the personnel to make him truly ineffective.
Haller on the Thunder: They know who they are, which makes sense considering they’re the reigning champs. Williams missed much of the first-round series, and it didn’t matter. Everyone excels in their role and nobody really plays outside of it. Forced shots are rare. Not a lot of brain-dead moments. Maybe that’s because the Suns did not pose much of a threat, but this is an incredibly poised team. As Suns coach Jordan Ott put it, the Thunder are a well-oiled machine.
Woike on the Lakers: They’re a very good game-plan team. Against Houston’s full-strength lineup, the Lakers’ scrambling defense and variety of coverages on Durant showed the kinds of options they’re going to have to throw at Gilgeous-Alexander in Round 2. Credit to Redick and his staff — they’ve been able to put stuff together that the team can execute.
Guillory on the Lakers: The Lakers’ role players understand their fit and are prepared for the moment. Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard were sensational to start the series. Smart’s playaking was crucial to take some of the burden off LeBron, and he generated some big defensive plays. Smart and Kennard’s impact shrank as they became bigger focal points in the game plan, but their play in the first three games gave LA the cushion it needed. Deandre Ayton’s effort and focus can always be an adventure, but he held up well against Alperen Şengün and even got the best of their matchup in a couple games. As the Lakers advance to the next round, it’ll be essential for those guys to keep playing with confidence, especially if Dončić’s return remains unclear.
What are you watching most closely about the Thunder and Lakers? (Injury management, X-factors, anything, etc)
Lorenzi on the Thunder: Their offensive progression in these half-court playoff settings. We forget because they’ve won a title, but it’s only the third playoff run for OKC with SGA as its cornerstone, and even now, the rotation looks fairly different. They’re still improving. We’ll eventually nitpick the shooting of their perimeter defenders, but Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren’s growing connection will matter during this run. Who Mitchell evolves into will matter during this run. What the Thunder offense looks like when defenses throw the kitchen sink at SGA — even if he’s dodged doubles to this point — will eventually matter.
Haller on the Thunder: Redick has been so good this season. He’s navigated the Lakers through issues that could have derailed their season, especially lately with all the injuries. I want to see how he game plans against OKC’s pressure and how he keeps SGA from taking over the series.
Woike on the Lakers: How does Reaves shake off the rust? That’s the biggest floor-raiser the Lakers currently have. Can he put the oblique injury behind him and help the Lakers extend Round 2 long enough for Dončić to maaaaaybe sneak back into these playoffs?
Austin Reaves scored just 22 points in his Game 5 return for the Lakers. (Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images)
Guillory on the Lakers: How will LeBron’s body hold up as the playoffs continue? He’s already shown some signs of slippage with his lackluster Game 4 performance. The Lakers got back Reaves in Game 5, which was extremely important. But as the pressure and physicality of these games increase — and his days to recover between games decrease — what will James look like from game to game? And if he’s not performing at a superstar level, what can the Lakers do to find the necessary production outside of him?
How do you feel about the Thunder’s or Lakers’ long-term playoff chances? Why should or shouldn’t they be in the title conversation?
Lorenzi on the Thunder: The Thunder still have the highest floor of any team in the field. The defense is consistently thirsty. They have a longer rotation than any other roster and can downsize when they please. They can adjust their lineup based on that series or nightly needs. They’ve seemingly unlocked Holmgren as a play finisher and rebounder, among the several wrinkles they didn’t have when they won a title. And there’s Gilgeous-Alexander, who somehow was more effective as a pick-and-roll ballhandler in the first round despite being in the 98th percentile in the regular season. He’s got more control over the game than he’s ever had.
Haller on the Thunder: The Thunder are deep and talented, and when all else fails, they have a superstar who can get them to the finish line. The Suns had a top-10 defense, and they had no chance against Gilgeous-Alexander. He beat them from the foul line. He beat them with efficiency. He beat them in the half court, and he beat them in transition. As the Thunder advance, the competition will get better. Games will get tighter. And SGA will meet the moment.
Woike on the Lakers: The Lakers know they’re not in the same long-term conversations as the Thunder. They are still trying to figure out how much juice is left in this core. Change feels like it’s coming — and will probably need to happen — for the Lakers to get close to the Thunder on paper.
Guillory on the Lakers: The Thunder are just too good. Their activity on defense is too ferocious. Their depth is too reliable. Their home-court advantage is overwhelming. Gilgeous-Alexander is too dominant in the moments that matter. Getting to this point was an impressive achievement for the Lakers, considering what they had to overcome. But they’re headed toward a buzzsaw.
Prediction, and why?
Lorenzi: I’m not sure when or if Dončić can make it back in time, but these Thunder have obliterated the Lakers even when he’s been active. Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in the series, perhaps in any series now, and the defense behind him is bound to make any superstar less efficient than they were in the regular season. Williams’ potential absence, while significant, does not alter OKC’s complexion to the point that it can’t be an overwhelming favorite. Thunder in 5
Haller: The regular season means little in May, but OKC’s performance against the Lakers this season is difficult to ignore. The Thunder won all four games by 29, nine, 43 and 36 points. The Lakers weren’t always at full strength, but this is ugly. Thunder in 5
Woike: I’ll tilt away from the regular season meaning anything here and give the Lakers some credit for their toughness and resourcefulness. But this seems like it’s lopsided. Thunder in 6
Guillory: The Thunder’s ball pressure is too much to handle for a team with such limited perimeter playmakers. And unlike Houston, when the Thunder take the ball, they go down and put it in the basket. Even if they don’t get those easy points off turnovers, Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an all-time great level right now, and the Lakers don’t have enough answers to slow him down. Thunder in 5
