The Athletic has live coverage of the 2026 Kentucky Derby.
Editor’s note: The Puma was a late scratch Saturday morning. The writer’s picks were adjusted once the news was official.
We come to this year’s Kentucky Derby with no clear favorite: Four of the 20 entrants are 10-1 or lower on the morning line, with the favorite at a relatively juicy 4-1. That opens the door to big payouts if you can pick the winner, and, even better, the horses that will finish behind him.
As seasoned as some of these horses are, none of them has faced what they will on Saturday. Most of them haven’t run the Derby’s 10-furlong distance; notable exceptions are Danon Bourbon and Wonder Dean, the two Japanese entrants, both of whom won in their 1 1/4-mile races, and Emerging Market and Pavlovian, who contested the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby.
None of these horses has run in a 20-horse field — though Six Speed has twice run and won facing 15 other runners. A big field is always ripe for chaos, and even the best jockey/trainer plans go out the window if a horse doesn’t break well.
So far, the weather looks fine for Saturday: partly cloudy, with no real chance of rain. (Did that just jinx it? Probably.)
NBC will broadcast 10 races on Saturday, beginning at noon ET on Peacock and NBCSN. At 2:30 p.m. ET, coverage switches to NBC and remains on Peacock. Telemundo Deportes will cover the big race beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET on Universo and stream it on the Telemundo app.
Post time for the Kentucky Derby is 6:57 p.m. ET.
My chosen wager is a three-horse exacta box: I pick three horses, and if two of them finish first and second in any order, I cash. The minimum bet is $1, so this wager costs a total of $6. I like to include logical horses and a couple of long shots, and given the size of this field, I’ll go beyond three horses to include four or five.
My pick to win is Further Ado, and my plan was to box him in exactas with Golden Tempo, Renegade, Albus and The Puma. With the scratch of The Puma on Saturday morning, I’ll substitute So Happy. I admit that I’m taking a big flyer with Albus, but Aqueduct Racetrack, which opened in 1894, is closing permanently at the end of June, and sentimental me would love to see the final winner of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct win this race.
In post-position order, here’s a look at the field for Kentucky Derby 152.
1. Renegade
- Owner: Robert and Lawana Low and Repole Stable
- Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
- Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low
- Morning line odds: 4-1
You’ve got to hand it to Mike Repole: despite setback after setback, he’s not given up on his Derby dream (though he’d be the first to acknowledge that you shouldn’t feel sorry for him). But the horse carrying his colors has been scratched from the race in two of the last three years, and three times overall.
Last year, Grande was scratched the day before the race by state veterinarians. In 2023, Forte was scratched the morning of the race, also by state veterinarians. Back in 2011, Uncle Mo was scratched by trainer Pletcher the day before the Derby. Forte was the expected favorite, while Uncle Mo was the second choice on the morning line.
Repole and his partners have the morning line favorite here, a bay colt with a record of 5-2-2-1, his most recent win in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, which this bay colt won by four lengths. He’s already earned back his purchase price, banking just over $1 million after costing $975,000 as a yearling. Post position 1 is not a coveted start in the starting gate, and Renegade will need a good break to contend early.
2. Albus
- Owner: Pin Oak Stud
- Trainer: Riley Mott
- Jockey: Manny Franco
- Breeder: Susan Casner
- Morning line odds: 30-1
The first of two for trainer Riley Mott, who began training in earnest in 2023 after spending years as the assistant to his father, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, whom he’ll face here, not for the first time. Albus earned his way into the Kentucky Derby with a win in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Racetrack, a race in which he beat his father and not for the first time.
A deep closer, Albus has a running style that has often proved successful in the Derby, but he’s making a big jump here. The Wood was his first graded stakes attempt, and that race hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.
3. Intrepido
- Owner: Dutch Girl Holdings and Irving Ventures
- Trainer: Jeff Mullins
- Jockey: Hector Berrios
- Breeder: Sierra Fria Farm
- Morning line odds: 50-1
He’s winless since last October, when he took the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita by three-quarters of a length. He ran second by that same margin in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, but lost by 10 in his last race, the Santa Anita Derby, the same margin by which he lost the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Not seeing it.
4. Litmus Test
- Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Bashor Racing, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan
- Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Jockey: Martin Garcia
- Breeder: Machmer Hall
- Morning line odds: 50-1
Yes, you’re reading it right: A Bob Baffert Derby colt with this ownership group is 50-1 on the morning line. He finished 23rd on the Kentucky Derby qualifying leaderboard and made it into the race only because horses that finished above him aren’t running. His last win came in December in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, and last time out he ran seventh, beaten by 12 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. It’s weird to consider a Baffert runner a throw-out, but this one is.
5. Right to Party (scratched)
6. Commandment
- Owner: Wathnan Racing
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: Luis Saez
- Breeder: Lee Pokoik
- Morning line odds: 6-1
This guy finished the Derby qualifying series on top with 150 points. After finishing fourth in his first start last October at Keeneland, he’s reeled off four straight wins in races that included several of his rivals here. His off-the-pace style should suit him well here, but he will have a new rider in the saddle; his three previous jockeys all have other mounts in this race, a decision they may well regret when they hit the wire. He looms a commanding foe indeed.
7. Danon Bourbon
- Owner: Danox Co. Ltd.
- Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe
- Jockey: Atsuya Nishimura
- Breeder: Blue Heaven Farm
- Morning line odds: 20-1
This Kentucky-bred will make his first start in the United States after having been based in Japan throughout his career. He was purchased at Keeneland by Katsumi Yoshida, one of Japan’s premier owners and breeders, and one who has spent millions on U.S. bloodstock. Danon Bourbon earned a spot in the race through Churchill Downs’ dedicated series of races in Japan.
He’s undefeated in three starts, all by open lengths; two of those wins came over a muddy track, which he’s unlikely to see on Saturday. He’s one of only two horses in the race to have run at the Derby distance of 10 furlongs, and he won that race, but I’m not a fan of the overseas ship-ins for this race, so I’ll let him beat me this time around.
8. So Happy
- Owner: Norman Stables and Saints or Sinners
- Trainer: Mark Glatt
- Jockey: Mike Smith
- Breeder: Leverett S. Miller
- Morning line odds: 15-1
Mike Smith turned 60 last summer, but that’s not impeding his attempt to win his third Kentucky Derby. He’s been aboard for all four of this colt’s starts, three of them wins, all in California, the most recent of which came in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. His speed figures and stalking style make him a contender here, and his jockey isn’t nicknamed “Big Money Mike” for nothing.
9. The Puma (*scratched Saturday morning)
- Owner: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, High Step Racing, TCC Stables, Bruce Zoldan
- Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
- Jockey: Javier Castellano
- Breeder: Hidden Brook Farm and Brian Kahn
- Morning line odds: 10-1
Three years ago, trainer Delgado won this race with Mage, and he’s taken a similar route to Louisville with this runner. Like Mage, The Puma ran second in the Florida Derby, the final prep for both colts en route to the Derby; The Puma brings one more start to the race, though both horses had won just once before arriving in Louisville. Castellano rode Mage to his Derby victory; the two horses also share a co-owner in OGMA Investments. The Puma is a mid-pack/closing runner, which could be to his advantage, and while I’d like to see a bit more consistency and seasoning, he’ll be on my tickets.
10. Wonder Dean (JPN)
- Owner: Yoshinari Yamamoto
- Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
- Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
- Breeder: Yoshinari Yamamoto
- Morning line odds: 30-1
Another overseas entrant, Wonder Dean is also Japan-based, but he got to Churchill Downs via Dubai, where he won the UAE Derby in March by 2 1/2 lengths. Unlike Danon Bourbon, this dark bay/brown colt was bred in Japan; like so many Japanese runners, his pedigree goes back to Sunday Silence, the 1989 U.S. Horse of the Year, on his sire’s side. Go back two generations on his dam’s side, and you get to Charismatic, the 1999 Horse of the Year. He’s won at the Derby distance of 10 furlongs, and his pedigree’s impressive, but as above, I’m sticking with domestic horses on my tickets.
11. Incredibolt
- Owner: Pin Oak Stud
- Trainer: Riley Mott
- Jockey: Jaime Torres
- Breeder: Deann and Greg Baer DVM
- Morning line odds: 20-1
Like Riley Mott’s other runner here, Albus, Incredibolt is owned by Pin Oak Farm. After finishing fourth on debut last August, he broke his maiden by two lengths, then notched his first graded stakes win in the Grade 3 Street Sense at Churchill Downs in October. A disappointing sixth-place finish in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park diverted the dark bay/brown colt to Colonial Downs, which for the first time hosted a Derby qualifying race, the ungraded Virginia Derby in March; this guy won by four lengths. Though it would be a great story for Mott to get a Derby win, I don’t think this is the horse to do it.
12. Chief Wallabee
- Owner: Michael and Katherine Ball
- Trainer: William Mott
- Jockey: Junior Alvarado
- Breeder: Mike and Katherine Ball
- Morning line odds: 8-1
Mott père won this race last year with Sovereignty, who brought a more seasoned record to the Derby than this lightly raced colt; his Country House was put up as the winner in 2019 following the disqualification of Maximum Security. Chief Wallabee has just one win on his résumé — in his first start back in January. Mott is as good a horseman as they come, but I don’t think even his talents will get this colt to the winner’s circle on Saturday.
13. Silent Tactic (scratched)
14. Potente
- Owner: Speedway Stables
- Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Jockey: Juan Hernandez
- Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod
- Morning line odds: 20-1
Another Baffert longshot, this one a $2.4 million yearling purchase. Potente is the more typical Baffert speedy sort, and the speed figures in his few races suggest he can compete here. He faltered as the favorite last out in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing a distant second behind So Happy, a rival here. Baffert has won this race six times, most recently in 2020 (he was banned from Churchill Downs from 2022 to 2024), and I don’t think he’ll get his seventh Derby this year.
15. Emerging Market
- Owner: Klaravich Stables
- Trainer: Chad Brown
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
- Breeder: Stoneriggs Farm
- Morning line odds: 15-1
It’s an awfully big ask for a colt to win this race in just his third lifetime start. But it was conventional wisdom that no horse that didn’t race at 2 years old could win it, either (the Apollo Curse), and then came Justify in 2018, who not only hadn’t raced at age 2, but he began racing in February of his 3-year-old season; then he won the Triple Crown.
Is Emerging Market a Justify-type horse? Probably not, but he prepped in the Louisiana Derby, which is as close to the distance of this race as any U.S. prep, and he pulled that off. He earned his way into the race, but I’m thinking that this is too much too soon, even if a Brown/Klaravich/Prat entrant at or near this price is mighty tempting.
16. Pavlovian
- Owner: Reddam Racing
- Trainer: Doug O’Neill
- Jockey: Edwin Maldonado
- Breeder: Reddam Racing
- Morning line odds: 30-1
Reddam and O’Neill won this race in 2012 with I’ll Have Another and in 2016 with Nyquist, so they know how to get a horse to the Derby winner’s circle. They’ve certainly tested this guy: he’s made 10 starts, more than any other horse in the race, compiling a record of 2-4-1. He finished just a head behind Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby last out, and he won the Sunland Derby at nine furlongs in February. He’s improved as the distances have gotten longer. These last two wins have both come on or close to the lead, and it will take a Herculean effort to pull that off here, but you might consider him underneath in vertical exotics like exactas and triples.
17. Six Speed
- Owner: Brunetti Dugan Stables, Black Type Thoroughbreds, Steve Adkisson, Swinbank Stables
- Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
- Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
- Breeder: KatieRich Farms
- Morning line odds: 50-1
Bred in Kentucky, this colt sold for $50,000 as a yearling at Keeneland, then brought just over $300,000 at a 2-year-old sale in England. Since then, he’s been based in Dubai, most recently finishing second in the UAE Derby behind Wonder Dean, a rival here. His last four races have been impressive, but the competition he’s faced isn’t close to what he’ll see on Saturday. Pass.
18. Further Ado
- Owner: Spendthrift Farm
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: John Velazaquez
- Breeder: John C. Oxley
- Morning line odds: 6-1
The second of three Cox runners has been getting plenty of buzz in the lead-up to the Derby, following his crushing 11-length win in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in April. The Eclipse Award winner for outstanding trainer in 2020 and 2021, Cox won the Derby in 2021 after the horse that crossed the wire first, Medina Spirit, was disqualified for a medication violation.
The Louisville native obviously has this race on his bucket list, and there’s no reason to think he can’t win it with this horse. Further Ado broke his maiden by 20 lengths last October; he’s seasoned at races over a mile; and he’s got a high cruising speed that he can maintain while stalking a pace. He’s my pick.
19. Golden Tempo
- Owner: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable
- Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
- Jockey: Jose Ortiz
- Breeder: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stables
- Morning line odds: 30-1
Were Golden Tempo to win on Saturday, Cherie DeVaux would become the first woman trainer to win the Kentucky Derby. She’ll have a lot of people rooting for her, and it’s not inconceivable that this race will be hers someday, but Golden Tempo will need to improve to wear the winning blanket of roses. This colt ran third behind rivals here Emerging Market and Pavlovian, beaten only a length, so the stamina and the potential are no doubt there. He’s bred beautifully for distance and has one of the game’s top riders in the sale. I’m not writing him off, and he’ll be on my tickets.
20. Fulleffort (scratched)
21. Great White
- Owner: Three Chimneys Farm and John Ennis
- Trainer: John Ennis
- Jockey: Alex Achard
- Breeder: 1 Ostud TNT
- Morning line odds: 50-1
He drew in when Silent Tactic scratched because of a foot bruise on Wednesday. He, too, has run primarily on Turfway’s synthetic surface, and in his lone start on dirt, in early April, he finished fifth by 22 lengths.
22. Ocelli
- Owner: Ashley Durr, Anthony Tate, and Front Page Equestrian
- Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
- Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
- Breeder: Rosedown Racing Stables
- Morning line odds: 50-1
Ocelli drew in when Fulleffort scratched on Thursday morning. This horse has never won a race. You read that right: In six lifetime starts, he’s finished second once, third three times and out of the money twice. The last maiden to win the Derby was Brokers Tip in 1933. Enough said.
23. Robusta
- Owner: Calumet Farm
- Trainer: Doug O’Neill
- Jockey: Christian Torres
- Breeder: Calumet Farm
- Morning line odds: 50-1
He got here by finishing second by a head to Potente in the Grade 2 San Felipe in March. His only win came as a maiden in January, and he’s been outclassed facing these horses several times.
Also eligible
Corona de Oro was also eligible if there had been additional scratches before 9 a.m. ET on Friday, but the deadline has now passed.
24. Corona de Oro
- Owner: On Our Own Stable, Commonwealth Stable, U Racing Stables, Saints or Sinners, Titletown Racing Stables, Jim Nichols, Edwin S. Barker, Rivers Thoroughbreds, John Haines, Dallas Stewart
- Trainer: Dallas Stewart
- Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
- Breeder: Willow Oaks Stable
- Morning line odds: 50-1
Another with only one win to his credit, which came in a maiden race in March at Fair Grounds. He may well be talented, with a record of 5-1-1-2, but his speed figures don’t make him competitive in this group.
