• Download the NBA App
The 23rd playoff series between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers is the ninth to go seven games.
The Celtics were seemingly in control, up 3-1 and leading by 13 points in the second half of Game 5. They were looking like the best team in the East and were on their way to the conference semifinals for the ninth time in the last 10 years. But they’ve scored just 104 points over their last 123 offensive possessions (85 per 100) and their season is now on the line.
The Sixers have been a wild card all season, never healthy or consistent for an extended stretch, but always capable of playing like one of the best teams in the league.
They’re now down to one game for a trip to the conference semis, where the New York Knicks are waiting.
Here are seven numbers to know for Game 7 on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock):
1. It’s all about the Boston offense
28 — The Celtics have scored 28 more points per 100 possessions in their three wins (129.1) than they have in their three losses (101.1).
The difference between the Celtics’ wins and the Sixers’ wins in this series has been much bigger on Boston’s end of the floor. And it starts with 3-point shooting, with the Celtics having shot better than 36% from beyond the arc in all three wins and below 30% in all three losses.
Game 6 was also the Celtics’ worst of the series in regard to free throw rate (they were just 9-for-16 from the line) and offensive rebounding percentage (16.7%).
2. It’s Tatum vs. Embiid
62 — Joel Embiid has been the screener’s defender on 62 ball-screens set for Jayson Tatum. That’s the seventh most common ball-handler-screener-defender combination in these playoffs, even though Embiid has played in only three of the six games.
A ball-screen for Tatum, directed at Embiid, has been the primary action of the Boston offense for the last few games. And it’s been good for the Celtics, who’ve scored 1.14 points per possessions when one of those ball-screens has led directly to a shot, turnover or trip to the line.
Overall, the Celtics scored just 93 points on 100 possessions in Game 6. But Embiid still had some issues defending in space:
We can expect Tatum to attack him more in Game 7.
3. Philly struggling at the start
85.7 — The Sixers have scored just 85.7 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter. That’s the worst first-quarter mark for any team in these playoffs and, by far, the worst mark for either of these teams in any quarter.
The ugly first-quarter offense has been pretty consistent. The Sixers scored 25 points on 23 first-quarter possessions in Game 2, but have otherwise scored no more than a point per possession in any of the other five first quarters, and they’ve lost the opening period in all six games. Over Games 4-6, the Sixers have scored an anemic 59 points on 74 first-quarter possessions.
None of the Sixers’ five starters have shot better than Paul George’s 9-for-21 (43%) in the first quarter, with VJ Edgecombe and Kelly Oubre Jr. having combined to go 10-for-36 (28%), including 2-for-19 from 3-point range.
The Sixers have recovered to win three of the six games, but they should hope to start faster on Saturday.
4. Celtics’ starters struggling to score
96.5 — The Celtics’ starting lineup has scored just 111 points on 115 offensive possessions, a rate of 96.5 per 100.
That’s the worst offensive mark among the 10 lineups that have played at least 50 minutes in the playoffs. While the Sixers’ starters have all shot poorly in the first quarter, the Celtics’ group has been less efficient over the course of the series.
Neemias Queta has made a huge defensive impact all season long, but the Celtics have been better offensively in this series with the floor-spacing Nikola Vučević or Luka Garza at the five. And it will be fascinating to see which center gets the most playing time in Game 7.
5. It’s a jump-shooting series
39.2% — The two teams have combined to take just 39.2% of their shots in the paint.
The Celtics have taken just 35.8% of their shots in the paint, the lowest rate for any team in any playoff series in the four years. That’s down from their league-low rate of 40.9% in the regular season.
The Sixers have taken 42.6% of their shots in the paint, the third lowest rate in these playoffs and down from 49.6% (12th highest) in the regular season. The Celtics are inviting Embiid to shoot jumpers and only 22 (35%) of his 62 shots have come in the paint, his lowest rate in any of the 13 playoff series he’s played in. He’s a solid 12-for-24 (50%) from mid-range, but just 2-for-16 (13%) from beyond the arc.
6. Easy baskets have been hard to come by
34.7 — Related to the number above, the two teams have combined to averaged just 34.7 transition points per game, according to Synergy tracking.
The Celtics haven’t seen a big drop in transition opportunities. They ranked 28th in transition points per game (19.4) in the regular season and are 12th (17.8) in the playoffs.
But the Sixers have gone from averaging 24.7 transition points per game (13th) in the regular season to just 16.8 (14th) in this series. Credit the Celtics, who have always been good at taking care of the ball and have committed just 5.9 live-ball turnovers per 100 possessions (second fewest in the first round) over the six games.
The Sixers’ 23 transition points in Game 6 were their high for the series, and if either team can find a few extra transition opportunities in Game 7, it could turn the game.
7. Can we get some clutch time?
1 — Only one of the first six games has been within five points in the last five minutes. That was Game 3, when the two teams combined to score an amazing 26 points on 13 clutch possessions and Tatum hit the dagger 3 after a Derrick White offensive rebound.
The Celtics were just 16-17 in clutch games in the regular season, while the Sixers (23-18) had the league’s No. 1 clutch defense and won two of the three clutch games that they played against Boston.
There have been 82 Game 7s in the 30 years for which we have play-by-play data, and 40 (49%) have been within five points in the last five minutes.
* * *
John Schuhmann has covered the NBA for more than 20 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Bluesky.
