Renegade trains on the track during morning workouts ahead of the running of the 152nd Kentucky Derby. Alex Slitz / Getty Images
May 2, 2026Updated 1:52 pm EDT
The Kentucky Derby is a horse race. It’s a fashion show. It’s a boozy party. And in its spot on the first Saturday in May, it’s also a harbinger of spring, bringing those sundresses and pastel linens out of the closet and into the spotlight.
Not so much this year. On both social media and the NBC broadcast of the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, one word kept coming up over and over again: cold.
Though the temperature at the Oaks post time of 8:40 pm ET was listed on the race’s official chart as 60 degrees, the buzz suggested that the Churchill Downs gift shop’s stock of sweatshirts may well have been depleted by the time the crowd of 103,290 filed out of the track.
Derby Day won’t be much better, with the high at Churchill Downs forecast to be 59 degrees. According to Louisville’s WLKY, Saturday will be among the coldest race days since 1989, when the thermometer dropped to below 40 degrees, and sleet fell on those who braved the weather to see Sunday Silence win.
How will the cold actually impact the race? While the humans in Louisville might not appreciate the chilly temperatures, the horses almost certainly will. Horses are much more comfortable in cold weather than in warm, much like humans (think about athletes trying to run their best endurance race on a hot day).
One of the concerns on a day like today with a race of this magnitude is that a horse, to use a racing vernacular, will leave his race in the paddock. The 3-year-olds that will run for the roses will never have experienced the kind of crowd and noise they will today. That’s where the cold weather can help. Hot weather can increase their stress, leaving them washy, which is racetrack talk for the white, foamy sweat that can develop when horses are amped up. Heat can exacerbate their tendency to sweat and “wash out” before the race.
At least the chances of rain are minimal. Rain is often a feature of Derby Day; National Weather Service records say rain has fallen on Louisville on the first Saturday in May 13 times since 2000. While there’s a 20-percent chance of rain early in the day, racegoers and observers can expect a dry, fast racetrack this afternoon.
May 2, 2026
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