With just 30 Broadway productions eligible for Tony Awards nominations this season — last year had 42 — the competition might be narrower but that doesn’t make it any less fierce, particularly in the performing categories. Critics, bloggers and plenty of theatergoers have generally bemoaned a lackluster season for new musicals, for example, but don’t tell that to the casts loaded with lots of talent.
While somewhat less populated with big-name Hollywood stars than last season’s Clooney-fied, high-priced spring (all due respect to Keanu Reeves, Daniel Radcliffe and Rose Byrne), Broadway this season has boasted a steady stream of outstanding performances. Byrne, for example, certainly deserves to be in the running for her hilarious turn in Fallen Angels, a nomination that would hand the star a rare chance at taking both a Tony nom and an Oscar nom (for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) in a single year.
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One TV show — The Bear — contributed three of its stars to Broadway this year: Most critics, myself included, were impressed by Ayo Edebiri’s Broadway debut, perhaps less so for that of Ebon Moss-Bachrach in Dog Day Afternoon. From that play, The Bear‘s Jon Bernthal seems a likelier choice for a Tony nomination, though nothing is certain.
One big name that was back on Broadway this year, if not on stage, is Scott Rudin, the producer who took a years-long hiatus from the industry after a slew of allegations of workplace bullying surfaced. This season he returned with two Broadway productions — Little Bear Ridge Road and Death of a Salesman — and both are in serious contention for Tony nominations. His longtime and frequent collaborator Laurie Metcalf, who starred in both productions, will almost certainly be nominated for Salesman and could well score one for Bear Ridge as well, placing her in the rarefied position of landing two nominations in a single season. Whether the controversy surrounding Rudin figures into this year’s nominations remains to be seen, but New York’s critics seem to have weighed in already — the New York Drama Critics’ Circle named Bear Ridge the year’s Best Play, and Salesman was honored for its Ensemble Cast.
As for Broadway audiences, they’ve made Salesman a hit, though the worthy, if downbeat, Bear Ridge couldn’t muster much support.
Some very worthy performers are likely to get lost in the Tony rush — The Pitt’s Patrick Ball might get overshadowed by his Becky Shaw co-star Alden Ehrenreich; Alex Winters in Waiting For Godot might have gotten a bit smothered by both Keanu Reeves and that massive, quite gorgeous pipeline set; Micah Stock in Little Bear Ridge Road might lose attention from Metcalf; and maybe the searing Cynthia Nixon in Marjorie Prime could take a backseat to the wonderful June Squibb, her 96-year-old co-star in Marjorie Prime and a possible record breaker for eldest Tony nominee ever.
Whatever happens Tuesday, let’s not forget some performances that maybe didn’t get the lasting buzz but demand our thanks nonetheless: Jennifer Engstrom (Bug), Layton Williams (Titaníque) and Jean Smart (Call me Izzy).
Scroll through the category list below to see where Deadline’s critic Greg Evans falls on this year’s starry and not-so-starry performances, with Deadline’s predictions and analysis about what will happen when a selection of nominations for the 79th annual Tony Awards are revealed live on CBS Mornings at 8:30 a.m. ET/5:30 a.m. PT. Tuesday, May 5. Uzo Aduba and Darren Criss unveil the rest on the Tony Awards’ official YouTube page beginning at 9 a.m. ET. A complete list of nominees will be available at TonyAwards.com immediately following the announcement.
This year’s Tony Awards ceremony will return to Radio City Music Hall in New York City on Sunday, June 7. Hosted by Pink, the event will broadcast live to both coasts on CBS, streaming on Paramount+, from 8-11 p.m. ET/5-8 p.m. PT.
Some notes: Several productions that began performances on Broadway during the eligibility window (April 28, 2025-April 26, 2026) are not in the running: Producers of All Out: Comedy About Ambition (the staged readings of Simon Rich’s writings) opted not to join the race (nor did they invite critics to the show). Jeff Ross: Take a Banana for the Ride and Rob Lake Magic With Special Guests the Muppets were deemed ineligible for consideration, as was the Broadway return of the touring Beetlejuice.
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One more note: Most categories will likely contain four nominees, though five can be selected in cases with a higher number of eligible productions, and in some cases just three could turn up.
So here we go.
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Best Musical
Image Credit: Matthew Murphy
With six eligible musicals, the Best Musical category should be limited to four nominees. Two of the musicals, while they had their fans, are very long shots: Beaches The Musical was universally panned by critics and is being pretty much ignored by ticket-buyers. Indeed, Beaches would likely go down as the season’s biggest flop had it not been for The Queen of Versailles (a musical that also drew inspiration from a film, an identically named documentary). That leaves The Lost Boys, Schmigadoon!, Titanique and Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York). Many critics didn’t have overmuch enthusiasm for any of this year’s musicals — the New York Drama Critics’ Circle chose not to name a Best Musical this year, but I think the four candidates are being underestimated. Two Strangers is a charming, small-scale musical that greatly benefits from a very likable turn from Broadway newcomer Sam Tutty; it was something of a front-runner earlier in the season, but whether it has held on to that good will is anybody’s guess. Schmigadoon! and Titanique are great fun, but I’m pulling for the The Lost Boys, a chiller with fine performances and some eerily lovely moments of aerial vampire derring-do.
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Best Musical Revival
Image Credit: Lincoln Center Theater
With just five potential nominees, this category might get just three slots. Mamma Mia! doesn’t have a chance, and I have little faith in Chess, though that one could sneak in. That leaves Cats: The Jellicle Ball, Ragtime and The Rocky Horror Show, worthy contenders all. As for the trophy itself, I’m leaning toward the sweeping Ragtime, but could be persuaded by the Jellicles.
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Best Play
Image Credit: Joan Marcus
Eight productions are eligible. I seriously doubt Call Me Izzy will make the cut, and Dog Day Afternoon, The Fear of 13 and Punch (the latter two were hits in London, proof again that appeal doesn’t always cross the water) are iffy. That leaves: The Balusters a fine play that was even better when it was called Eureka Day! (that’s a joke, if not exactly off the mark); Giant, a powerful vivisection of the anti-semitic author Roald Dahl; Liberation, another gut punch of a play; and Little Bear Ridge Road, which was just named Best Play by the New York Drama Critics’ Circle (Liberation won the Circle award for best ensemble last season for its Off Broadway staging, and so was not eligible for Circle award consideration this year). As for the ultimate win, I’d say it’s up for grabs between Giant and Liberation, with the latter, about an early ’70s women’s liberation group and its lasting, sometimes surprising impacts, having a slight edge. (Liberation is no longer running on Broadway, so that could work against it in the actual Tony race.)
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Best Play Revival
Image Credit: Emilio Madrid
Eleven revivals quality for this category, which should mean five nominees. I doubt Art, Proof or Waiting For Godot will be among them (though Proof should). I’m as certain as we can be in these things that Becky Shaw will be in the running, as well as Death of a Salesman, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone and Oedipus. That leaves an opening for Bug, Every Brilliant Thing, Marjorie Prime and the fizzy Fallen Angels. I loved Every Brilliant Thing, Marjorie Prime and Fallen Angels, though some of that good feeling came directly from the performances rather than the plays themselves. Same with Bug, though I can’t say that even its performances have stuck with me in the months since I saw the show. For the fifth slot, then, I’d probably go Marjorie Prime. For the Tony, at this point I’m leaning Salesman, but wouldn’t be disappointed by either Becky Shaw or Joe Turner.
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Best Leading Actress (Musical)
Image Credit: Matthew Murphy
With the critical and/or commercial drubbings taken by Beaches, Mamma Mia! and The Queen of Versailles, the performers in those shows – including the usual Broadway favorite Kristin Chenoweth – can probably sleep in on Tuesday morning. The likely nominees are Caissie Levy, Ragtime; Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York); Marla Mindelle, Titaníque; Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!; and Lea Michele, Chess. Stephanie Hsu could slide in for The Rocky Horror Show, but I’m thinking that’s not in the cards. For the trophy? Still too early to gauge, but I’d say it’s between Broadway favorite Levy and the impossibly endearing Mindelle. Not Lea’s year.
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Best Leading Actor (Musical)
Image Credit: Lincoln Center Theater
One of the most competitive races of the year, and not just because there are nine eligible contestants. It’s because there are nine really terrific contestants. Ragtime‘s Joshua Henry is a certainty for nomination, as is one of the season’s break-out stars Sam Tutty, so adorable in Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York). Ragtime‘s Brandon Uranowitz gives yet another of his career’s Tony-worthy performances, and Nicholas Christopher is the best part of Chess, taking Tony focus from co-star Aaron Tviet. Luke Evans turned his movie action/he-man image on its head as Rocky Horror Picture Show‘s Frank-N-Furter, and no one who saw it could begrudge a nomination. Alex Brightman likely won’t make a five-nominee cut because he was stuck with Schmigadoon!‘s least interesting character. Andrew Durand, one of the New York stage’s most consistently compelling performers, should have won last year for Dead Outlaw, but I suspect he’ll be overshadowed this year by cast mate Evans. That leaves LJ Benet, another of the season’s great Broadway debuts as the troubled almost-vamp in The Lost Boys. I’d find a way to squeeze him into the running, maybe at the Sophie’s Choice expense of Christopher or Evans. Actually, I’d find room for Durand too.
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Best Leading Actress (Play)
Image Credit: Michael Brosilow
Yet another crowded house. Lesley Manville from Oedipus is pretty certain to land a nomination, as is Laurie Metcalf for Little Bear Ridge Road (she is in the featured actress category for Death of a Salesman). Susannah Flood is likely for Liberation, as is Carrie Coon for Bug. That leaves a slot for a fifth. Anika Noni Rose is a real possibility for The Balusters. I’d like to see Kelli O’Hara or, especially, Rose Byrne get in for Fallen Angels, and while Proof‘s Ayo Edebiri divided at least some critics, I was on her side all the way. I have a feeling it’s gonna be Metcalf in June, who just might pull off a stunning two-Tony win this year.
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Best Leading Actor (Play)
Image Credit: Joan Marcus
John Lithgow (Giant), Nathan Lane (Death of a Salesman), Mark Strong (Oedipus) and Daniel Radcliffe (Every Brilliant Thing) should relax over the weekend – their nominations are are as foregone as these conclusions can be. Still, James Corden was awfully good in a scene-stealing performance in Art, and both Adrien Brody (The Fear of 13) and Jon Bernthal (Dog Day Afternoon) could parlay their career-long popularity for what might be be deemed by cynics as courtesy nominations. None of the latter three gave performances in the same league as the best four though, and I’m thinking Lithgow goes the distance here.
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Best Featured Actress (Musical)
Image Credit: Matthew Murphy
Nichelle Lewis of Ragtime and Shoshana Bean of The Lost Boys are all but certain to make the cut in this crowded race, as is “Tempress” Chasity Moore, who takes Jellicle Ball‘s showstopping role of Grizabella the Glamour Cat and makes it her own. For the remaining slots I’d lean toward Shaina Taub in Ragtime, and either Ana Gasteyer in Schmigadoon! or her fellow-former SNL alum Rachel Dratch in Rocky Horror. The latter has no big singing moments so she’s less likely here. And we can’t rule out Deborah Cox from Titaníque. There are some other possibilities from Schmigadoon!, Rocky Horror, Jellicle and others, but they’d be surprises.
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Best Featured Actor (Musical)
Image Credit: Matthew Murphy
Another category jam-packed with possibilities, but the only real shoo-in is, I think, the beloved and irreplaceable André De Shields (Cats: The Jellicle Ball). Ben Levi Ross (Ragtime) comes close, as does Ali Louis Bourzgui (The Lost Boys). Jim Parsons is giving a tremendously enjoyable performance in Titaníque, and Constantine Rousouli is one of the key elements that holds that same show together. Those would be my top five, but I won’t be surprised or disappointed if Sydney James Harcourt (Cats: The Jellicle Ball) slips in, and Layton Williams (Titaníque) would land a nomination in any other, less-crowded season. He still might. Max Clayton, too, from Schmigadoon! Sentiment for De Shields aside, as of now I’d give this year’s trophy in June to Bourzgui, who is beguiling as a devilish and emotionally wounded punk vampire.
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Best Featured Actress (Play)
Image Credit: Emilio Madrid
Laurie Metcalf is a certainty for her revelatory interpretation of Linda Loman in Death of a Salesman, and Liberation‘s Betsy Aidem was shattering as the middle-aged housewife who begins to see life – her life, especially – in an entirely new way after joining a women’s liberation group in the early 1970s. June Squibb was equally moving as the mentally slipping Marjorie in the drama-with-sci-fi-trappings Marjorie Prime, and her co-star Cynthia Nixon gave a shattering performance. Indeed, this category is ridiculously overstuffed with possibilities: Linda Emond and Lauren Patten from Becky Shaw, pretty much the entire cast of Liberation and Taraji P. Henson from Joe Turner’s Come and Gone. And Kara Young, a last minute replacement in a crucial role in Proof, can never, ever be counted out. A nomination this year would be her fifth consecutive, breaking a remarkable record that she herself set last year with four. And if she wins in June she’d be the first Black female contestant to win three consecutive times (following Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch and Purpose).
I’d be pleased to see any one of them win the award, but I suspect this year belongs to Metcalf. Some dark horse possibilities: Marylouise Burke (The Balusters), Jessica Hecht (Dog Day Afternoon), Aya Cash (Giant) and Madeline Brewer (Becky Shaw). Bottom line: My choices for nominations would be Metcalf, Aidem, Nixon, Emond and Young.
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Best Featured Actor (Play)
Image Credit: Marc J. Franklin
The large ensemble of Joe Turner’s Come and Gone could pretty much fill the eligible slots in this category, but for the sake of spreading the wealth, I’d pick, from that play revival, Cedric the Entertainer and Ruben Santiago-Hudson. Death of a Salesman has its share of possibilities as well, starting with Christopher Abbott (Ben Ahlers could slip in here too). The Pitt‘s Patrick Ball turns in a fine Broadway debut in Becky Shaw, and Don Cheadle did the same in Proof. Arguments could certainly be made for both Elliot Levey (Giant) and Danny Burstein (Marjorie Prime). Room should be found for Richard Thomas (The Balusters), but the absolute must in this category is Alden Ehrenreich, who delivers a stage-career-making Broadway debut as Becky Shaw‘s toxic, nasty and (how does he do it?) empathetic financial planner who not-so-secretly loves the woman he grew up with as a sibling. It’s a fascinating, complex performance in a fascinating, complex play. Perhaps the true test of a Tony-worthy performance: Once you see Ehrenreich in the role, you can’t imagine another actor doing it. So with ruthless narrowing-down, my nom choices: Ehrenreich, Santiago-Hudson, Abbott, Levey and Thomas.
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Best Director (Musical)
Image Credit: Matthew Murphy
Let’s cut to the chase of this already very long roster. The nominees should include Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch for the ingenious Cats: The Jellicle Ball; Lear DeBessonet for the sumptuous Ragtime; Sam Pinkleton for the rollicking Rocky Horror; Tim Jackson for the sweet confection of Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York); and, last but most certainly not least, Michael Arden for the visually stunning The Lost Boys. If I could hand out the trophy right now, the vampires would score.
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Best Director (Play)
Image Credit: Emilio Madrid
Robert Icke gave us one of the best reimaginings of classical theater in memory with Oedipus, so he gets a nomination. Whitney White‘s direction on Liberation took an incisive and poignant play and brought it right home. Joe Mantello added another production to his stellar career in his stark and heartbreaking Death of a Salesman; and Giant‘s Nicholas Hytner brought out everything horrific and compelling in watching the self-immolation of a hateful human being who deserves everything he has coming to him yet still has us hoping he’ll pull a Scrooge and repent. (Spoiler alert: He doesn’t.) And one more candidate: Anne Kauffman, who directed the eccentric and disquieting Marjorie Prime, should get a shot. I’m guessing Mantello in June, though.
