The Oklahoma City Thunder didn’t just beat the Los Angeles Lakers this season — they dominated them. Now comes the part that has to matter.
The reigning champion Thunder enter the second round as the standard in the Western Conference, backed by a league-best regular-season record of 64-18 and a first-round sweep that only reinforced their edge. The Lakers arrive in a slightly different place. They handled the Rockets in six games, but not without cracks. There was uneven shot-making, turnover issues and a roster still adjusting to life without Luka Dončić. There’s enough shot-making to stay competitive, especially with LeBron James and Austin Reaves now back, but far less certainty about how it holds up over the series.
The Thunder have defeated the Lakers five straight times, including a four-game regular-season series sweep this year. The Lakers lost five games this season by at least 25 points, and three of them were against the Thunder.
The past doesn’t determine this series, but it makes the challenge unavoidable. Here’s what to watch:
Lakers perimeter offense vs. Thunder perimeter defense
The Lakers had the eighth-best offense in the NBA after the All-Star break, but the Thunder had the league’s best defense all season. There’s a path to success for the Lakers offensively, and it comes down to the 3-point line. Oklahoma City will permit 3s, and that’s a gamble against a Lakers team that does not generate a high volume of 3s but is quite accurate when it does find them.
Re-integrating Reaves into the lineup matters here. The Lakers need him to be a factor with foul-drawing abilities, and they need James to be decisive as a driver as well while Dončić is out. The Lakers should put Marcus Smart in the corner as much as possible if Smart doesn’t have the ball in his hands; the difference between Smart as a corner 3-point shooter and Smart as a threat above-the-break is vast.
How the Thunder choose to use primary perimeter defender Luguentz Dort will be interesting, as Dort would usually be assigned to Dončić. Luke Kennard has been something of a revelation; how his aggression changes with Reaves back is something to watch. Kennard’s accuracy is great, but his willingness and ability to produce volume have always been a bigger challenge.
As long as Dončić is out, a key shooter in this series for the Lakers will be Rui Hachimura, especially from the midrange. Shots will be available to the Lakers; the only question offensively is whether they can make enough of them.
Lakers interior offense vs. Thunder interior defense
The reason why those shots will be available to the Lakers is that the Thunder have an impenetrable interior defense. Between Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder have some of the best rim protection in basketball. Combine that with the Lakers’ reluctance to crash the offensive glass, and this is a profound advantage for Oklahoma City.
Los Angeles does have finishers. Deandre Ayton has issues getting consistent touches; he has black-hole tendencies and a reputation for struggling to handle passes, but he can’t be ignored inside. Ayton’s presence allows James to be bigger than anyone the Thunder can put on him, which will include the taller but thinner Holmgren. But the Lakers are a paint-heavy team that doesn’t generate a high volume of drives. Finding easy baskets for Ayton, Hayes and Hachimura is going to be difficult but necessary.
Lakers control vs. Thunder pressure
The Lakers have felt the absence of Dončić and Reaves most in their ability to organize the offense, despite Smart and Kennard stepping up. That showed up against Houston. It becomes far more dangerous against Oklahoma City.
There are just a few attackable Thunder defenders. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 6-foot-6 and averages 1.4 steals per game. Cason Wallace averaged 1.9 steals this season and gave backup Lakers guard Bronny James fits in Oklahoma City. Ajay Mitchell will likely start while Jalen Williams is out, and he’s a comparable ball hawk. Hartenstein has active hands when he’s not protecting the rim. Alex Caruso is adept at pick-6s. Thunder backup center Jaylin Williams is among the league leaders in charges drawn.
It is very hard to dribble and pass around the Thunder, and the Lakers have to move the ball more without Dončić, something they aren’t very well-suited to do without some gnarly giveaways.
Lakers pressure vs. Thunder control
Both the Lakers defense and Thunder offense were in the middle of the pack after the All-Star break, with each respective unit ranking 14th in efficiency. The Lakers are an above-average pressure team, and Smart in particular is a valuable piece that the Thunder will need to account for. But what makes the Thunder special is that they don’t hurt themselves with turnovers. Oklahoma City is a great possession-battle team, while the Lakers are a below-average one. And the most important part of the Thunder possession equation is that the ball is in the hands of Gilgeous-Alexander, a player who averaged only 2.2 turnovers per game.
Jalen Williams’ injury hurts the Thunder’s ballhandling options, particularly when Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor. But that’s why Mitchell has been pushed all season with on-ball reps and confidence, and Mitchell averaged more than twice as many assists (3.6) as turnovers (1.4) this season. The Thunder are a drive-heavy team, and even without Williams, they’re built to put pressure on defenses instead of standing around and getting pressured. The Thunder are also a low-pass offense; that minimizes the Lakers’ steal opportunities as well. Keep an eye out for Smart and Reaves drawing charges, though.
Lakers interior defense vs. Thunder interior offense
This is one of the Lakers’ clearest vulnerabilities. They are an awful rim-protection team that struggles to keep teams out of the paint, no matter how creative the schemes are. There are attackable defenders on the floor at all times, and the rebounding comes and goes as well, despite the size the Lakers have due to an athleticism deficit.
The Thunder offense, however, is not a particularly imposing one inside. The top post option is Gilgeous-Alexander despite the presence of Holmgren and Hartenstein. Jaylin Williams is a floor spacer, and Oklahoma City plays five-out often. The Thunder also punt the offensive glass. Still, the Lakers aren’t dealing with an Alperen Şengün-type of presence in this series, nor are they dealing with the chaotic activity on the offensive glass that the Rockets presented.
Lakers perimeter defense vs. Thunder perimeter offense
Gilgeous-Alexander obliterated the Lakers this season. In Gilgeous-Alexander’s 87 minutes against Los Angeles, he scored 83 points on 55.2 percent shooting. And it’s not like Gilgeous-Alexander dominated from the free-throw line; he attempted 15 free throws in those minutes, well below his average.
The Lakers can’t afford to let Gilgeous-Alexander operate freely. Los Angeles is going to have to sell out on Gilgeous-Alexander and dare Thunder shooters to beat them, especially with Jalen Williams out. That’s typically been a strong strategy for the Lakers since the All-Star break, as teams shot the worst percentage from 3 in the league against them. Dort, Jaylin Williams and especially Isaiah Joe destroyed the Lakers’ defense this season by shooting 50 percent or better from 3. But that’s the trade-off the Lakers need to consider, especially in a playoff setting. They need to treat Gilgeous-Alexander with the kind of double-teams they gave Kevin Durant.
Special teams
For those unfamiliar, basketball special teams pertain to free-throw percentage and the transition game. And this isn’t close.
The Thunder are one of the league’s best in free-throw shooting and transition defense. The Lakers are not. Even with James as the league’s top fast-break scorer at 41 years old, Oklahoma City limits those opportunities due to its reluctance to crash the offensive glass and ability to limit live-ball turnovers.
Coaching
The last time the Lakers beat the Thunder was April 6, 2025, in Oklahoma City. The Lakers made 28 of 54 shots outside the paint, including 22 3s. That remains the blueprint.
Lakers coach JJ Redick is 1-6 in two seasons against the Thunder. Mark Daigneault has grown more comfortable against the Lakers as time has gone on, and that’s even with several key Thunder players unavailable.
Intangibles
The biggest X-factor in this series is health. Dončić’s potential return would shift the series, but this would be as difficult a return spot as one can imagine, especially given how well the Thunder played against him this year. The Thunder outscored the Lakers by 56 points in Dončić’s minutes this season, with him having as many turnovers (10) as buckets (10-of-30 shooting). Add in home-court advantage, rest and the experience that comes with losing Game 1 to the Denver Nuggets last year with a similar advantage going into the semifinals, and Oklahoma City should be as focused as ever.
Bottom line
This is not a series the Lakers are supposed to win. Perhaps that comes with some relief in terms of the “no one believes in us” factor — a real one, because some had the Lakers beating the Rockets even before Durant’s injuries derailed Houston. The previous blowouts don’t matter — the games will start 0-0. The Lakers have enough shotmakers, even without Dončić to steal games. Enough of James to give them a chance.
But over a full series, the little things will matter more: the turnovers, fast breaks and usable depth. That’s where the Thunder separates, and they have the best player in the series. That will be the case even if Dončić can somehow return. The Lakers can make this uncomfortable. This could even be 2-2 going into a critical Game 5.
But I expect the Thunder to win this series in six games.
