President Donald Trump’s motives, declared and undeclared, are always complex and changeable. He has used social media to try to persuade oil traders not to drive up the price of petrol for American motorists.
He must also be frustrated by the Iranian regime’s resilience and determination to resist however much pain America and Israel inflict on the country. A regime prepared to shoot its own citizens in the streets for protesting, as the Islamic Republic’s security forces did once again in January, is not going to worry too much about their welfare – at least not until it affects their hold on power.
Trump’s frustration is the result of his own rash decision to go to war assuming an easy victory, without thinking through the consequences of what happens and what to do if it isn’t easy. The US has shown the power of its highly efficient military, but the president’s fluctuating decision-making has left the country in a strategic bind.
Trump’s decision to order the US Navy to escort a couple of ships through the strait does not restore freedom of navigation. Between 40 and 60 vessels were transiting the strait every day until the US and Israel went to war.
Iran has shown that it is prepared to go back to war and might even be prepared to set the pace of escalation. It is strategy full of risk, but for the men who have replaced the former supreme leader and all the senior leaders killed by the US and Israel, it is a risk worth taking.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) looks to be the main target for Iran among their Gulf Arab neighbours. In response, the UAE has doubled down on its alliances with the US and Israel. The Israelis sent an Iron Dome anti-missile system to the UAE, and IDF soldiers to operate it – a significant gesture they refused to offer to Ukraine.
