Welcome to Baseball America’s latest in-season projection of the 2026 college baseball NCAA Tournament bracket.
In the past, BA utilized our College Baseball Top 25 rankings to determine a projected national seed order. In an effort to avoid large swings, though, this year we are leaning on projection to determine what the field could look like on Selection Monday, rather than present a live snapshot of the current hierarchy.
Additionally, we are now showing our work on the two-seed line due to the NCAA selection committee’s updated seeding format. Beginning this season, the committee will rank the top 32 teams, not just the 16 regional hosts. Seeds 17-32 will be slotted into regionals based on that ranking: teams 29-32 will be paired with the top four national seeds, 25-28 with seeds 5-8, 21-24 with seeds 9-12 and 17-20 with seeds 13-16. The projected bracket below is designed to reflect how that structure will work, even if the committee ultimately does not make its full two-seed rankings public.
The SEC continues to lead our latest projection with 13 total bids followed by the ACC (9), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), Conference USA (3), the American (2) and the Sun Belt (2).
Before we get into the latest bracketology, here’s a breakdown of recent results that had postseason implications and factored heavily into our latest bracket. You can also jump right to the new Field of 64 by clicking here.
What More Can Kansas Do?
The only resistance Kansas faced in Week 12 came Friday night against Arizona, when it entered the bottom of the fifth trailing 2-1 before winning 4-2. The rest of the week was more decisive, with the Jayhawks winning their other games by a combined 24 runs.
Those results have Kansas at 37-11 overall and 20-4 in the Big 12, good for first place with the No. 14 RPI. We’ve noted that the Big 12 requires an overwhelming resume to produce a host, and while Kansas still has a home series against West Virginia and a road set at BYU—two series with the potential to be disruptive—it seems it has done enough at this point to be considered secure on the host line.
The question now is how high it can climb. The Jayhawks have lost just once since March 28, and its 20-4 conference record leaves little room to ask more of them. At this pace, Kansas is not only in position to host the first regional in program history, but to push into the top eight national seeds.
What A Georgia SEC Title Means For The Field
Georgia could clinch the SEC regular season title in the penultimate week, holding a 2.5-game lead over Texas and Texas A&M and a four-game edge over Mississippi State and Auburn. With six games remaining, that gap will be difficult to close.
If Georgia holds on, it raises seeding questions, particularly about how the committee will balance RPI against conference standing.
As of May 5, our projection had Georgia as a clear top eight seed but not ranked ahead of Texas or Auburn. The reasoning is rooted in RPI. Texas and Auburn enter Week 13 at No. 3 and No. 4, respectively, 13 and 12 spots ahead of Georgia despite trailing in the standings. Last year provided a similar example. Texas won the SEC regular season title and entered Selection Monday at No. 4 in RPI, while Vanderbilt, which won the SEC Tournament with an RPI of 3, received the higher seed.
Our expectation is that the committee will continue to prioritize the metrics in a case like this, even against a conference title.
Oregon State In The Host Swing Spot
We still have Oregon State as a projected host, even after a week in which it absorbed two Quad IV home losses and fell to No. 16 in RPI. We believe the committee will still side with the overall profile.
There’s no modern precedent for evaluating an independent resume other than Oregon State last year, but this case might not require it if the Beavers handle what remains. They are 36-11 against the No. 44 strength of schedule with just four Quad I games. A series loss in a Quad IV road set at Long Beach State or a Quad IV home series against Air Force would likely remove them from top 16 consideration.
If Oregon State takes care of those series, our expectation is that the committee will remain favorable, even if the RPI slips slightly.
The Big Ten Picture
Not all conferences are created equal. The SEC will push multiple teams into the field with sub-.500 league records, ACC teams can garner consideration around .500 and the Big 12 typically requires a few games above .500 with solid metrics. In the Big Ten, the margin for error is much slimmer.
Here’s where each projected tournament team or bubble team stands:
UCLA: As the No. 1 team in the country for 13 straight weeks, owners of the top RPI and the winningest team in the nation, UCLA is an easy choice for the No. 1 overall seed. But series against Oregon and Washington remain, and both are capable of changing that quickly. The Bruins control their position.
USC: The Trojans remain 0-8 in Quad I games, but their RPI has climbed to No. 10 and they are on pace to surpass 40 regular season wins. That supports a host spot for now, but it’s not secure. One losing weekend would likely push them back to the two line.
Nebraska: Avoiding a sweep at Ohio State was critical, and the Huskers failed to do it. Even as a Quad II result, that outcome was enough to push Nebraska out of the host picture for now. A return to the top 16 is possible, but it likely requires both strong results and help from others.
Oregon: At 35-12 overall and 17-7 in conference play, Oregon sits at No. 27 in RPI with the No. 99 strength of schedule, neither of which supports a host profile. Instead, the Ducks are a solid two-seed. A series win over UCLA would change the conversation quickly, however.
Michigan: Michigan sits relatively comfortably in the field with the No. 42 RPI, a 30-17 overall record and 15-9 conference record. Its 2-8 Quad I record is a concern, but consistency has helped, with just three losing weekends and none since early April. That positioning holds if it wins at Minnesota and takes its final home series against Ohio State.
Purdue: Purdue sits in the Next Four Out and faces a difficult climb with Indiana and Iowa remaining. An RPI of No. 52 and a No. 104 strength of schedule leave little room for upward movement.
NC State Reenters The Picture
NC State’s series win over Miami was one of the most significant results of the week for the tournament picture. The Wolfpack, previously just outside the field, received a meaningful metrics boost and moved back onto the right side of the bubble.
It remains a precarious position, with series at Stanford and at home against North Carolina still to come. A series win on the West Coast and avoiding a sweep against the Tar Heels should be enough for a team that appears to have stabilized its season against Miami.
The Toughest Call Of The Week
It’s important to note that the projected field below is not necessarily how we would build it. In some cases, our views align with the projection. In others, they do not. Vanderbilt is a clear example.
At 10-14 in SEC play with a No. 71 RPI, none of us would personally select the Commodores into the field. But when evaluating how the committee is likely to approach it, the answer becomes less certain.
Vanderbilt closes the season at Missouri and at home against South Carolina, which is as favorable a stretch as an SEC team can draw. Even without projecting sweeps, a 4-2 finish would bring the team to 14-16 in conference play, a mark that has not been excluded from the field since 2017.
The complication is the RPI. None of the SEC teams selected at 14-16 in the last near-decade carried a number as low as Vanderbilt’s is likely to be on Selection Monday, which creates a clear question for the committee: conference wins in the SEC or RPI.
We believe league strength and precedent will win out, and thus we included Vanderbilt as our last team in.
Westwood, Calif.
Corvallis, Ore.
1. (1) UCLA^* (Big Ten)
1. (16) Oregon State^ (Independent)
2. (32) Liberty (CUSA)
2. (17) Ole Miss (SEC)
3. Vanderbilt (SEC)
3. Gonzaga* (WCC)
4. Oral Roberts* (Summit)
4. Cal Baptist* (WAC)
Atlanta, Ga.
Los Angeles, Calif.
1. (2) Georgia Tech^* (ACC)
1. (15) USC^ (Big Ten)
2. (31) Oklahoma State (Big 12)
2. (18) Oklahoma (SEC)
3. Tennessee (SEC)
3. UC Santa Barbara* (Big West)
4. Niagara* (MAAC)
4. San Diego State* (Mountain West)
Austin, Texas
Gainesville, Fla.
1. (3) Texas^* (SEC)
1. (14) Florida^ (SEC)
2. (30) Jacksonville State* (CUSA)
2. (19) Nebraska (Big Ten)
3. TCU (Big 12)
3. NC State (ACC)
4. Southeastern Louisiana* (Southland)
4. North Florida* (ASUN)
Auburn, Ala.
Tuscaloosa, Ala.
1. (4) Auburn^ (SEC)
1. (13) Alabama^ (SEC)
2. (29) UTSA* (AAC)
2. (20) Cincinnati (Big 12)
3. Virginia Tech (ACC)
3. Miami (ACC)
4. Fairleigh Dickinson* (NEC)
4. Campbell* (CAA)
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Hattiesburg, Miss.
1. (5) North Carolina^ (ACC)
1. (12) Southern Miss^ (Sun Belt)
2. (28) UCF (Big 12)
2. (21) Boston College (ACC)
3. Saint Joseph’s* (A10)
3. Miami (OH)* (MAC)
4. Maine* (America East)
4. Eastern Illinois* (OVC)
Athens, Ga.
Starkville, Miss.
1. (6) Georgia^ (SEC)
1. (11) Mississippi State^ (SEC)
2. (27) Virginia (ACC)
2. (22) West Virginia (Big 12)
3. Mercer* (Southern)
3. East Carolina (AAC)
4. Saint John’s* (Big East)
4. Army* (Patriot)
Lawrence, Kan.
Tallahassee, Fla.
1. (7) Kansas^* (Big 12)
1. (10) Florida State^ (ACC)
2. (26) Oregon (Big Ten)
2. (23) Arkansas (SEC)
3. Kentucky (SEC)
3. Michigan (Big Ten)
4. Wright State* (Horizon)
4. Penn* (Ivy)
Conway, S.C.
College Station, Texas
1. (8) Coastal Carolina^* (Sun Belt)
1. (9) Texas A&M^ (SEC)
2. (25) Wake Forest (ACC)
2. (24) Arizona State (Big 12)
3. High Point* (Big South)
3. Missouri State (CUSA)
4. Bethune-Cookman* (SWAC)
4. Indiana State* (MVC)
* denotes automatic bid
^ denotes regional host
Last Four In
NC State (ACC)
East Carolina (AAC)
TCU (Big 12)
Vanderbilt (SEC)
First Four Out
Louisiana (Sun Belt)
UAB (AAC)
Pitt (ACC)
Kent State (MAC)
Next Four Out
Western Carolina (Southern)
Purdue (Big Ten)
Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
LSU (SEC)
