Updated:
May 5, 2026 , 01:24 PM ET
• 4 min read
The Yankees may be riding high, but Jacob deGrom comes in ready to put that momentum to a halt.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Texas Rangers pitcher Jacob Degrom (48) throws during the first inning.
The New York Yankees begin a new series with the Texas Rangers after a four-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles.
New York is one of the hottest teams in baseball with eight wins in their last ten but tonight, they are favored when they simply shouldn’t be. I’m taking the Hall of Fame pitcher here at plus money.
Read all about it in my Rangers vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, May 5.
Who will win Rangers vs Yankees today: Rangers moneyline (+111)
These two teams faced off in Texas a week ago, with Jacob deGrom going head-to-head with New York Yankees ace Cam Schlittler in a 3-2 loss. Not much has changed in a week, deGrom is still poised to slow the Yankees’ bats, but he’s facing a much different pitcher in Elmer Rodriguez.
deGrom will be deGrom in this matchup. His uniqueness as a pitcher plays directly against some of the things New York struggles with. deGrom is getting strikeouts out and in the zone.
Unlike many pitchers, he’s not reliant on chase, which has hurt many opponents facing the Yankees, as New York has the lowest chase rate in baseball. deGrom doesn’t have to worry about that low chase rate and can still exploit the five Yankees hitters with an above-average strikeout rate.
On the other end, I’ll simply fade an arm in Elmer Rodriguez, who is making his second career MLB start with an expected ERA that exceeds 6. His strikeout stuff will keep the Texas Rangers hitters honest, but I worry about his struggles with the hard-hit ball against a lineup with plenty of power.
COVERS INTEL: Jacob deGrom has one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball at 32% which sets in the top 7% of baseball.
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Rangers vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+105)
I projected this total right at 8, so I was fairly surprised to see this number.
deGrom should be able to suppress a good part of this Yankees lineup for a variety of reasons. Even though they haven’t chased pitches outside the zone, this is still a Yankees lineup that ranks 7th in whiff rate.
deGrom has faced a few other teams outside of New York that rank among the top ten in whiff rate in the sport and held them to one earned run over double-digit innings (Seattle Mariners).
On the other side, it’s still hard to know what to make of Rodriguez going forward. However, he’s demonstrating enough swing-and-miss stuff that makes you think he can work through the less formidable parts of the Rangers lineup. That may be all it takes to keep this under.
Chris Hatfield’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 13-10, +3.62 units
- Over/Under bets: 16-9, +7.72 units
Rangers vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Texas +113 | New York -117
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-178) | New York -1.5 (+180)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-104) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Rangers vs Yankees trend
The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 away games (+0.50 Units / 3% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rangers vs Yankees and game info
Location
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Date
Tuesday, May 5, 2026
First pitch
7:05 p.m. ET
TV
RSN, YES
Rangers starting pitcher
Jacob deGrom
(2-1, 2.01 ERA)
Yankees starting pitcher
Elmer Rodriguez
(0-1, 4.50 ERA)
Rangers vs Yankees latest injuries
Rangers vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Chris has always had a passion for three things: solving problems, sports, and writing. It’s no wonder then that he found himself attracted to the sports betting industry. You can find Chris betting every day. Whether it’s shot prop markets in Champions League Soccer qualifiers or NBA Summer League, he has no offseason. As an EV+ bettor, he especially values the insight gained through a data-driven approach.
His work has been featured on various websites such as SBNation, Rivals, Bleacher Report, and 247Sports. He has appeared on radio outlets such as ESPN 680 and The Sharp 600 podcast. You can listen to his own podcast, “What High School Did You Go To?” on Apple Podcast and Soundcloud.
Chris has carved out a niche as a college basketball originator with massive profitability success in that sport and stresses one piece of advice to sports bettors: exploit edges as broadly as possible and take advantage of them while they last. His preferred sportsbook is bet365 because of the range of markets you can find.
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