It’s official. Election season, which is almost as long as hockey season, is here. Ballots are in the mail. Votes are being cast. And after eight years of Gavin Newsom’s absentee landlordism, Californians will finally get to decide which two candidates will advance to the November ballot to determine who gets to take a mop and bucket to Newsom’s mess.
And what a mess it is…
“Cleanup in aisle seven! Cleanup in aisle seven!”
The email I get most often from readers and listeners to my radio show on AM790 KABC in Southern California and KSFO-AM 810 in the Bay Area is, “As a Republican, who are you voting for in the primary? Former Fox News host Steve Hilton or Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco?”
Answer: The truth is, I happen to be fond of both candidates.
Steve Hilton has spent a considerable amount of time studying and developing solutions for California’s complex problems. With a background in Silicon Valley, Hilton is most familiar with the industry and the players who will propel California’s economy into the future.
As a resident of Riverside County, I can attest that Chad Bianco is an excellent sheriff. Living in a city protected by the Riverside County Sheriff’s Department, as I do, not having to worry about crime, homelessness, or the unfettered chaos that plagues so much of our state is truly a pleasure. Rancho Mirage didn’t become safe, orderly, and prosperous by accident. Rancho Mirage is the way it is because Chad Bianco and his deputies won’t put up with all the lawlessness that goes on in so many of California’s population centers—all thanks to the failures of one-party rule.
Since both candidates are perfectly acceptable, I’m convinced that our only job right now is to elect a Republican governor.
To be clear, neither one of these candidates will have the magic wand needed to fix all of California’s problems. What they will have is the ability to hit the brakes on the excesses coming out of the Democratic-controlled state legislature.
Now here’s the deal: The only shot we have of electing a Republican governor is for there to be a Democratic lockout on the November ballot.
In California’s screwy top-two primary system, if Hilton and Bianco finish first and second in the June primary, one of them is guaranteed to be our next governor. According to Paul Mitchell—owner of Redistricting Partners, Vice President of Political Data Inc., and creator of the “TWINS” Top Two Primary Simulator—the highest odds Republicans have had for a “Democratic lockout” (i.e., two Republicans advancing to the November general election ballot) was 28%.
Meaning, under the rosiest of circumstances for Republicans, if the GOP goes all-in on a Democratic lockout scenario, the Dems still have a 72% chance of winning the election.
Okay, but guess what? A 28% chance of winning is still better than a 1% chance, which is what it would be for Republicans if one Democrat and one Republican make it to the runoff.
Strategically speaking, in order to maximize their chances of advancing Hilton and Bianco to the November election, Republicans need to split their vote as close to 50-50 as possible. President Trump coming out and endorsing Hilton for governor makes that more difficult to achieve.
The working assumption now becomes that low-information Republican voters will follow Trump’s lead and vote for Hilton. And that means high-information voters (i.e., people who read the paper regularly, listen to talk radio, watch TV news, and follow independent journalism, etc.) should cast their ballots for Bianco.
Just think of it like the 1973-1974 oil crisis during the odd-even rationing days when your license plate number determined which days you could buy gasoline. If your plate ended in an odd number, you could buy gas only on odd-numbered days of the month; if your plate ended in an even number, you could buy gas only on even-numbered days.
Elections aren’t essay questions; they’re multiple-choice exams. Pick the “most right” answer.
In this case, that answer is Chad Bianco.
I’m voting for Chad Bianco this June—and high-information Republican voters should do so, too.
John Phillips can be heard weekdays from noon to 3 p.m. on “The John Phillips Show” on KABC/AM 790.
