Todd Cordell
• Betting Analyst
12+ years betting experience
Updated:
May 6, 2026 , 10:33 AM ET
• 4 min read
Cordell’s prediction: Mikolas continues to struggle vs. powerful Twins offense.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton (25) runs to first base after a hit against the Washington Nationals
Miles Mikolas is struggling mightily on the mound, posting a sky-high 8.23 ERA through seven appearances this season.
My Twins vs. Nationals predictions expect a powerful Minnesota lineup to take full advantage of Mikolas’ inability to limit the long ball.
Let’s dive deeper into my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 6.
Who will win Twins vs Nationals today: Minnesota Twins (-135)
The Minnesota Twins have posted solid offensive numbers away from their pitcher-friendly home, Target Field. They rank 10th in wOBA and fifth in ISO when facing right-handed pitchers on the road.
They also sit sixth in homers per fly ball, sandwiched between the Rangers and Yankees. That power should be on full display against Washington Nationals starter Miles Mikolas.
Mikolas is posting the worst numbers of his career in K-BB%, WHIP, and HR/9. A whopping 23.5% of his fly balls have left the park.
It’ll be difficult for him to improve upon that number against a Twins offense with real pop, including Byron Buxton, who owns a barrel rate in the 96th percentile and has six home runs in his last eight games.
COVERS INTEL: Mikolas’ peripherals are almost as bad as his surface numbers, as he ranks in the 23rd percentile in xERA.
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Twins vs Nationals Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-105)
Mikolas is walking batters at the highest rate of his career and bleeding home runs. That’s a recipe for offenses to score in bulk, especially on a warm day with the wind blowing out.
The Nationals also have a nice matchup offensively. Bailey Ober’s indicators (4.64 xFIP, 4.56 SIERA) are not nearly as good as his ERA (3.55), a sign his results could take a turn for the worse.
Ober has allowed an ISO over .200 against left-handed bats, and the Nationals feature several notables, including James Wood and CJ Abrams.
Todd Cordell’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 13-5, +5.88 units
- Over/Under bets: 7-11, -5.06 units
Twins vs Nationals odds
- Moneyline: Twins -135 | Nationals -115
- Run line: Twins -1.5 (+120) | Nationals +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Twins vs Nationals trend
The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+8.35 units). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Nationals.
How to watch Twins vs Nationals and game info
Location
Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Date
Wednesday, May 6, 2026
First pitch
6:45 p.m. ET
TV
Twins.TV, Nationals.TV
Twins starting pitcher
Bailey Ober
(3-1, 3.55 ERA)
Nationals starting pitcher
Miles Mikolas
(0-3, 8.23 ERA)
Twins vs Nationals latest injuries
Twins vs Nationals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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