Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday’s Shapovalov-Navone men’s singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Navone a 58% chance of defeating Shapovalov at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Navone has a 56% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Shapovalov (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 56% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Denis Shapovalov vs. Mariano Navone odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
Bet Type
Shapovalov
Navone
Moneyline
+172
-200
First Set
+137
-175
Game Spread
+3.5 (-118)
-3.5 (-112)
Total Games
o21.5 (-128)
u21.5 (-104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Shapovalov vs. Navone picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
Bet Type
Pick
Bet Now
Moneyline
Shapovalov
+172
First Set
Navone
-128
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Shapovalov vs. Navone updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Denis Shapovalov and Mariano Navone is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 10:45 AM ET.
- Who: Denis Shapovalov vs. Mariano Navone
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Approx. Time: 10:45 AM ET/7:45AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men’s Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Mariano Navone, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat Denis Shapovalov at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
